What Mizzou Basketball Has to do to Make March Madness in 2026

The Tigers aren't out of the running yet to make the NCAA tournament, but certain things have to go right for that to happen.

Jan 27, 2026; Tuscaloosa, Alabama, USA; Missouri Tigers guard T.O. Barrett (5) dribbles the ball on a fast break during the first half against the Alabama Crimson Tide at Coleman Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: David Leong-Imagn Images | David Leong-Imagn Images

To say Missouri's basketball season has been up and down through their clutch win against Mississippi State would be fairly accurate. There have been certain highs and certain lows, which have resulted in a 15-7 overall record and a 5-4 showing in conference play.

All things considered, things could be worse. The Tigers have looked very ugly at certain points in the season, especially in the five-game stretch at the end of non-conference play when they lost to Notre Dame, Kansas and Illinois. That infamous loss to Illinois was by a deficit of 43 points.

That being said, Dennis Gates' team started off SEC play with wins over Florida, Kentucky and Auburn. The Gators, who are now the No. 17 team in the country, have lost only once since their loss to the Tigers inside Mizzou Arena. The four losses Missouri has dropped in conference play haven't been great, especially on the road against Ole Miss and LSU, but it has enough wins at the moment to keep them afloat.

It shouldn't be shocking to anyone that a game-by-game approach has been the focus of Missouri's roster throughout the season.

"One game at a time," Missouri guard T.O. Barrett said following the Mississippi State win. "So whatever's going on, we're in the practice gym, we're putting in work. We're thinking about the next game. I don't think stuff like that is on our mind."

Game-by-game is going to be the story of the Missouri Tigers for the rest of the season unless they can start to consistently hammer out wins. In ESPN analyst Joe Lunardi's most recent bracketology update, which came out on the evening of Feb. 3, the Tigers are the fifth team out of the NCAA tournament. If he were to rank college basketball teams and the top 68 made it into March Madness, the Tigers would be No. 73.

In this scenario, Missouri joins George Mason, TCU and VCU as the next teams out. The first four out (in this order) are Virginia Tech, California, Seton Hall and Santa Clara.

The Tigers have been living life on the bubble for most of the 2025-26 season. Because of that, making the NCAA tournament is going to take some high-quality wins and not many losses.

More specifically, some things internally for the Tigers are going to need to change, and it all starts on the offensive side of the ball.

It feels like the Tigers are good for one or two signature dry streaks in every SEC game they play and it's not hard to pick out when they occur each time. Against Mississippi State, the Tigers converted on one of their last seven field goals and went the final 3:02 without making one. They also allowed the Bulldogs to go on a 10-0 run in the middle of the first half that allowed them to take a short-lived lead.

These runs and dry spells happen in every game, whether it's for five minutes or for an entire half. While there are times on offense where Gates' team is operating at a high level, small mistakes and decreases in intensity typically lead to game-altering runs from their opponents.

"I preached to our team that you have to understand the details," Gates said before Missouri's loss to Alabama. "You have to not allow yourself to have self-inflicted opportunities, whether it's offense and defense, taking care of the basketball, knocking down free throws, finishing in the paint, knocking down open shots."

On the flip side of that, the Tigers are getting some new production from sophomore guard T.O. Barrett and junior forward Trent Pierce. While Pierce is still gaining his conditioning back following an injury that kept him out until Jan. 3, Barrett has taken the starting point guard spot away from Anthony Robinson II and has run with it.

Over the last six games, Barrett has been one of the best players that Gates can put on the floor. He's coming into his own as an offensive player while maintaining the same level of strength and intensity on defense. Minor improvements in his three-point shooting are also starting to come along. Al ot of Missouri's success in SEC play should be attributed to him.

T.O. Barrett's last six games:

Game	Minutes	Points	FG%	Rebounds	Assists	Turnovers
vs. Auburn	23	13	80%	3	3	4
at LSU	29	11	37.5%	5	4	5
vs. Georgia	28	9	42.9%	6	3	1
vs. Oklahoma	39	21	66.7%	6	2	4
at Alabama	25	13	50%	2	4	3
vs. Mississippi State	30	16	27.3%	8	4	3

If the Tigers want to take a crack at the NCAA tournament, Barrett's going to have to stay consistent or keep improving. He's still not perfect, especially when it comes to turning the ball over, but he's added an element to the Tigers' starting unit that wasn't previously there.

The same could be said for Pierce, who's in the middle of the best stretch of his three-year college career so far. He's averaging a career-high of nine points per game, along with 3.4 rebounds and 1.1 assists. He's also shooting 46.7 percent from the field and 40.5 percent from the three-point line.

His jump in efficiency as a perimeter shooter was a jump that many were looking for him to make. He's become one of the most reliable on the team in that department. The Tigers are above the halfway mark in team three-point shooting in the SEC on the third-lowest attempts per game in the conference, making the ones that Pierce attempts and makes vital to Missouri's offensive success.

Obviously, those two aren't the only ones who will contribute to Missouri's success moving forward. Everyone plays an important role and guys like Mark Mitchell and Jayden Stone will need to continue doing what they are doing. Missouri will also expect more from Robinson and Jacob Crews, who have struggled as of late.

Jan 3, 2026; Columbia, Missouri, USA; Missouri Tigers guard Anthony Robinson II (0) celebrates after defeating the Florida Gators at Mizzou Arena. Mandatory Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images | Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images

From a scheduling perspective, MU has an interesting remaining slate. At this moment, Missouri has four remaining games against opponents ranked in the AP Top 25, including No. 15 Vanderbilt, No. 25 Tennessee and two matchups against No. 21 Arkansas. They'll also play Texas A&M on Feb. 11, which is currently 17-4 and the team atop the SEC.

They also play South Carolina and face rematches against Oklahoma and Mississippi State, which make up three of the bottom four teams in the conference standings. To say those games would be mist-wins would be an understatement and, in most circumstances, losing one of those would likely end Missouri's tournament chances.

Missouri will likely need to win at least two of those ranked games, as well. It's yet to face any of those three, so there's no telling how the teams would match up, but that doesn't change what the end result needs to be.

The Tigers' two mid-range games against Texas A&M and Texas would also benefit their tournament resume. The Aggies are shaping up to be a tournament team and Texas was the last team into the tournament in Lunardi's most recent bracketology. A win over a bubble team is a good win and beating the Aggies would add another impressive SEC victory to their list.

Missouri can likely afford to lose two or three more games in the regular season. It's going to have to pull off an upset or two and not lose any games they shouldn't, however, to stay afloat.

It'll have the chance to do that at noon on Saturday, Feb. 7, taking on the South Carolina Gamecocks on the road.