Men’s Basketball Bracket Watch: Texas, Cal on the Bubble; Miami, Virginia Tech Out

The calendar flipping to February means every game has seemingly added meaning in the race to Selection Sunday. There’s less separation than usual this time of year, meaning teams can swing drastically up or down the seed list based on one or two key results. Sports Illustrated will update its projected field weekly throughout February for the latest on who’s rising, who’s falling and who should start making spring break plans already.

This week’s update features notes on teams with the most to gain and lose in February. Here’s the projected field.

Previous bracket watch: Jan. 21

On the Bubble

Last Four Byes

Saint Mary’s
UCLA
New Mexico
USC

Last Four In

Seton Hall
San Diego State
Texas
California

First Four Out

Miami
Ohio State
George Mason
Santa Clara

Next Four Out

Virginia Tech
Missouri
VCU
Oklahoma State

As noted last week by Bleacher Report’s Kerry Miller, the dominance of the sport’s best teams this season makes for some tricky bubble conversations. Very few teams at or around the cut line have the type of résumé-changing wins over elite teams that you might expect this time of year. The primary exception to that rule is Texas, the only team in our final eight teams in or first four out with multiple Quad 1A wins (Vanderbilt, at Alabama). Notably, Texas has the worst résumé metrics average of teams in our field.

A surprise inclusion in the field this week is Cal, which has a sneaky solid résumé after winning at Miami over the weekend for the Bears’ third Quad 1 win. Mark Madsen’s team has shown tangible progress in his third year on the job, and a big February looms with a chance to get back to the NCAA tournament for the first time in a decade on the line. The schedule sets up well, with all four road games left (Syracuse, Boston College, Georgia Tech and Wake Forest) looking very winnable.

The road is far less kind for Miami and Virginia Tech, with each looking at backloaded ACC slates. Miami has taken a pair of damaging home losses to Florida State and Cal of late and has five more games against projected tournament teams, while Virginia Tech left some chances out there against Duke and now has a difficult path forward with all five potential résumé-boosting games on the road.

* — indicates projected automatic qualifier

West Region

No. 1 Arizona* vs. No. 16 Vermont*/NC Central*
No. 8 Villanova vs. No. 9 Utah State*
No. 5 Tennessee vs. No. 12 Tulsa*
No. 4 Virginia vs. No. 13 Winthrop*
No. 6 St. John’s vs. No. 11 USC
No. 3 Gonzaga* vs. No. 14 East Tennessee State*
No. 7 Arkansas vs. No. 10 SMU
No. 2 Nebraska vs. No. 15 Navy*

St. John’s has clearly established itself as the Big East’s second-best team after seven straight wins, and the Red Storm could rise on the seed list further if they can take advantage in one or both of their showdowns with UConn in February. The first comes Friday at Madison Square Garden in a highly anticipated matchup between two of the top coaches in the country.

It’s hard to figure out just what to make of Arkansas as the Razorbacks enter February. The one thing we thought we could count on with John Calipari’s team was its success at home, but that was before the Hogs got beat by Kentucky in an emotionally charged game in Fayetteville, Ark. Goodwill could get rebuilt with a pair of winnable road games at Mississippi State and LSU, or things could get messier with a loss or two heading into perhaps Arkansas’s toughest stretch of the schedule.

St. John’s forward Zuby Ejiofor dunks past Butler forward Michael Ajayi. | Wendell Cruz-Imagn Images

East Region

No. 1 Duke* vs. No. 16 LIU*/Bethune-Cookman*
No. 8 Wisconsin vs. No. 9 Georgia
No. 5 Alabama vs. No. 12 Belmont*
No. 4 Texas Tech vs. No. 13 UC Irvine*
No. 6 Kentucky vs. No. 11 California/Seton Hall
No. 3 Kansas vs. No. 14 Wright State*
No. 7 Clemson vs. No. 10 Saint Mary’s
No. 2 Illinois vs. No. 15 Harvard*

Nobody started February hotter than Illinois, which won on the road at Nebraska for a second elite road win in as many weeks. A No. 1 seed is very much on the table, especially if star point guard Keaton Wagler keeps playing at an elite level. The Big Ten schedule doesn’t provide much of a reprieve though, with a trip to Michigan State on Saturday for a third monster test away from Champaign, Ill., in the span of 15 days.

Could Belmont emerge as an at-large threat in February? History has not been kind to mid-majors with the Bruins’ profile, which already features three Quad 3 losses and no Quad 1 wins. But Belmont’s gaudy 20–3 mark could get even better in the coming weeks, and if Casey Alexander’s team can get to Arch Madness at 27–4, it’d certainly have a case.

Belmont forward Eoin Dillon looks to get past Drake’s Eli Shetlar during a game last month. | Lily Smith/The Register/USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Midwest Region

No. 1 Michigan* vs. No. 16 UT Martin*
No. 8 NC State vs. No. 9 Iowa
No. 5 North Carolina vs. No. 12 Liberty*
No. 4 Florida vs. No. 13 UNC Wilmington*
No. 6 UCF vs. No. 11 San Diego State/Texas
No. 3 Purdue vs. No. 14 North Dakota State*
No. 7 Saint Louis* vs. No. 10 UCLA
No. 2 Houston vs. No. 15 Austin Peay*

Few teams entered the 2025–26 season with higher expectations than Purdue, but the Boilermakers hit the skids with three straight losses in late January to put things on edge. A huge five-game stretch looms after a weekend matchup with Oregon this Saturday, with four top-20 KenPom matchups and a rivalry showdown with Indiana ahead. A 4–1 mark would position Purdue well for a top-two seed in the NCAA tournament, but stumble further and the Boilers could drop down the seed list a bit.

Predictive metrics suggest that UCF’s 17–4 record is something of a mirage, but the Knights are comfortably in the NCAA tournament field after another needle-moving win over Texas Tech on Saturday. With just two top-50 opponents left the rest of the way, UCF could stack wins late and angle for the program’s best-ever NCAA tournament seed.

Purdue guard Braden Smith makes a move to the basket. — Purdue guard Braden Smith and the Boilermakers entered the season with high expectations, but hit the skids in January. | Tommy Gilligan-Imagn Images

South Region

No. 1 UConn* vs. No. 16 Merrimack*
No. 8 Auburn vs. No. 9 Indiana
No. 5 BYU vs. No. 12 Stephen F. Austin*
No. 4 Vanderbilt vs. No. 13 Utah Valley*
No. 6 Louisville vs. No. 11 Miami (Ohio)*
No. 3 Michigan State vs. No. 14 Troy*
No. 7 Texas A&M* vs. No. 10 New Mexico
No. 2 Iowa State vs. No. 15 Portland State*

The hottest team in the SEC is Texas A&M, winners of 10 of its last 11 to lead the SEC at 7–1. The Aggies’ seeding hasn’t caught up to their hot play of late though, in part due to a poor nonconference that saw them lose all three tests vs. top-75 opponents. The schedule stiffens substantially starting in February, with a trip to Alabama on Wednesday and a home showdown with Florida on Saturday. Bucky McMillan’s team could rise the seed list quickly with a few more wins, or stabilize around the No. 7 to 10 range if it falls off some.

Indiana’s tournament path looked dicey two weeks ago after four straight losses, but the Hoosiers stacked by far their two best wins of the season last week beating Purdue and winning at UCLA. That leaves Indiana as one of the highest-variance teams in the field entering February: It has enough big opportunities (dates with Illinois, Purdue, Michigan State and two other Q1 chances) to climb fast, but things could get bumpy quick with that type of gauntlet ahead. Tuesday’s matchup at USC looms large for both teams.

Texas A&M forward Rashaun Agee looks to pass the ball as Mississippi State forward Brandon Walker defends. — Texas A&M forward Rashaun Agee is leading the Aggies with 13.9 points per game. | Maria Lysaker-Imagn Images

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