Bob Donnan/USAToday sports
UNC 85, State 79: Postgame Observations
CHAPEL HILL — If North Carolina played NC State every game, the Tar Heels would be a lock to get into the NCAA tournament and make a deep run into March.
Because of UNC's mastery of the State, there's a good chance the Wolfpack will join its rival on the outside looking when the 68-team field is announced on Selection Sunday.
After putting itself in an advantageous position with an upset of Duke last week, State put its NCAA tournament chances right back onto life support Tuesday by dropping an 85-79 decision to the Tar Heels at Smith Center.
It was the second loss this season to UNC for coach Kevin Keatts' team, a occurance that shouldn't come as a shock that the Tar Heels have now won 32 of the last 36 meetings between the teams.
What makes these defeats more disappointing, frustrating, mystifying or any other description you choose, than most of the others is that it came against this UNC team -- one that had lost seven straight in between its bookend conquests of the Wolfpack and is now 11-17 (4-13 ACC).
Here's a look at some of the key factors that led to the result, many of which were almost identical to the first time around against the Tar Heels:
◼ Fast start, sputtering finish: The Wolfpack (17-11, 8-9) shot out of the gate by scoring the game's first 10 points, with Markell Johnson scoring fueling the early run before the Tar Heels finally got on the board four minutes into the game.
If that sounds familiar, it should.
State got off to a similar 10-0 head start at Virginia Tech and was up 7-0 on UNC to begin the first meeting at PNC Arena two weeks later. On both occasions, the Wolfpack wasn't able to sustain the early momentum and ended up losing by double digits.
The margin was slightly closer this time, but the result was the same.
Asked why his team had so much trouble sustaining its momentum after getting off to such promising starts, redshirt senior C.J. Bryce was at a loss for an explanation.
"I can't answer that question," he said. "It's all within the process of the game. We're playing as hard as we can. There's a couple things that didn't go our way."
One thing that didn't go their way, yet again, was foul trouble.
Devon Daniels, last week's ACC Player of the Week, was limited to just six minutes in the first half after picking up two quick fouls. Manny Bates, Jericole Hellems and Pat Andree also had two each, forcing State to back off its defensive pressure.
Another key early turning point happened just before the first TV timeout. In an effort to get Johnson a couple extra possessions of rest before the official break, Keatts took his point guard out of the game at the 16:42.
Those couple of possessions turned into nine -- a 2 1/2-minute stretch during which UNC outscored State 8-2 before a whistle finally stopped play. From that point, it was game on.
◼ The Garrison Brooks factor: UNC's 6-foot-9 junior is averaging 15.2 points and 8.5 rebounds per game this season, decent enough numbers. But in two games against State this season, he has suddenty transformed himself into the second coming of Tyler Hansbrough.
After manhandling the Wolfpack for 25 points and 11 rebounds in Raleigh, he was even more dominant Tuesday by scoring a career-high 30 points to go along with nine boards. Fourteen of his points came from the line -- on 16 attempts -- adding insult to injury, since Brooks is normally a 56.5% free throw shooter who at one point this season missed 15 straight attempts.
He is also coming off a case of the flu that forced him to miss Saturday's game against Louisville.
He had 25 the first time, he had 30 tonight," said State forward D.J. Funderburk, one of those with the responsibility of trying to guard Brooks. "I did terrible in my eyes."
As far as UNC point guard Cole Anthony is concerned, it wasn't entirely Funderburk's fault.
"If I’m a team like that, I’m going to double team Garrison immediately," Anthony said. "Just leaving someone one-on-one with him is just leaving them for dead. I would make an emphasis to stop the person who killed the team the first time. But it is what it is. I ain’t the coach."
In at one sense, Brooks' career performances are an extension of a UNC tradition against the Wolfpack, picking up where Marcus Paige and Luke Maye left off.
"I thought we did a better job with him," Keatts said. "Obviously the score won't reflect that, but a lot of those (points) were from the free throw line. Give him credit, he made them."
◼ The Christian Keeling factor: See the above. The graduate transfer from Charleston Southern is averaging 6.0 points and is shooting 42% from the floor this season. Against State, though, he has looked like the second coming of Wayne Ellington.
He has made nine of his 12 field goal attempts in the two games -- including 7 of 9 (2 of 4 from 3-point range) while scoring a season-high 16 points to go along with seven rebounds.
◼ Recurring problems: Besides the fouls, its inability to contain Brooks and its penchant for taking its foot off the accelerator when things are going well, State also compounded its woes with a series of recurring problems.
It allowed UNC too many second chance opportunities, including one possession that included three offensive rebounds -- one off a bad box out on a missed free throw -- that was eerily similar to a damaging possession in the first game.
It committed 14 turnovers, many of which were the live ball variety at the worst possible times, leading to 13 Tar Heels points. Two of them came in the final seconds of the first half, leading to a momentum-shifting layup from UNC's Leaky Black as the buzzer sounded, another similarity to the earlier meeting.
It forced up too many perimeter shots, going 8 of 25 from 3-point range, and played too much one-on-one in halfcourt situations. It also sent its opponent the the free throw line far too many times. UNC was 22 of 31 from the line. State was just 11 of 13. Brooks by himself made more foul shots than the entire Wolfpack team attempted in the game.
Finally, State went through yet another damaging scoring drought at the worst possible time, this one coming after appearing to regain control by building a 52-45 lead with 14:45 remaining. Instead of putting the hammer down, the Wolfpack went the next four minutes without scoring. UNC took advantage by scoring nine straight points to take the lead on the way to a 21-4 run that all but decided the outcome.
"I told my guys after the game that we played extremely hard tonight," Keatts said. "The unfortunate thing is that we came up on the short end of the stick. I give Carolina credit, they finished the game better than we did. I thought we did a lot of good things. I didn't think we played particularly smart."
◼ Final numbers: Johnson finished the game with team-leading totals of 21 points and 10 assists, but he was just 2 of 7 from 3-point range and committed three turnovers. Funderburk had 18 points and nine rebounds while Bryce added 13 points. He also committed four turnovers and made just 1 of 6 3-pointers.
The Wolfpack actually shot well in the game, finishing at 48.4% and scored 23 points off 15 UNC turnovers, but it got out rebounded 38-30, had only seven offensive rebounds.
◼ So what does it mean? State would have virtually assured itself of a spot in the NCAA tournament if it could have won its three remaining games against lower ranked opponents.
Because of its five Quadrant 1 wins, the most in the ACC this season, there is still a possibility the Wolfpack could get in by beating Pittsburgh and Wake Forest, and perhaps winning at least one game at the ACC tournament in Greensboro. But that's leaving a lot to chance.
At this point, it's likely going to take another win against Duke, this time at Cameron Indoor Stadium next week, or something special in Greensboro to prevent another Selection Sunday disappointment.
