Final Game Predictions For Virginia Tech vs. NC State

Can the Wolfpack fix enough of the mistakes to get back in the win column?

Sep 20, 2025; Durham, North Carolina, USA; NC State Wolfpack head coach Dave Doeren during the second quarter against the Duke Blue Devils at Wallace Wade Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Zachary Taft-Imagn Images | Zachary Taft-Imagn Images

RALEIGH — As conference play starts to ramp up across the ACC, NC State is looking to recover from its first loss of the season and secure the second conference win of the season. The Virginia Tech Hokies, led by interim head coach Philip Montgomery, stand in the Wolfpack's path.

Last week's loss to Duke was full of costly mistakes, most notably four turnovers by sophomore quarterback CJ Bailey and some baffling special teams errors. According to NC State head coach Dave Doeren, the group spent most of the week correcting those issues to the best of its ability, particularly on special teams.

The Hokies enter the matchup with three losses already, but have taken the approach that they are 0-0, having not played an ACC game before Saturday. While they won Montgomery's first game as the new coach, the win came over Wofford, an FCS program. NC State will provide a major test for a program teetering on the brink of a complete collapse.

Sep 11, 2025; Winston-Salem, North Carolina, USA; North Carolina State Wolfpack running back Hollywood Smothers (3) runs the ball in the first half against the Wake Forest Demon Deacons at Allegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Luke Jamroz-Imagn Images | Luke Jamroz-Imagn Images

Ground and Pound

After yet another 100-plus yard performance against Duke, sophomore running back Hollywood Smothers became the ACC's leading rusher with 503 yards on the season. The sophomore averaged 6.3 yards per carry through the Wolfpack's first four games, despite receiving suspect run blocks in some of those games.

Smothers was already going to be a focal point for the NC State offense, but Virginia Tech's dismal statistics against the run make it even more likely. Through four games, opponents have run the ball 63.48% of the plays and racked up 210.7 rushing yards per game, putting the Hokie defense at 116th in the country in that category. Opposing running backs averaged 5.6 yards per carry in those games.

NC State offensive coordinator Kurt Roper will likely deploy both Smothers and redshirt freshman running back Duke Scott extensively throughout the game in an effort to dominate Virginia Tech with a lightning and thunder approach.

Sep 20, 2025; Durham, North Carolina, USA; Duke Blue Devils cornerback Chandler Rivers (0) catches a touchdown pass against North Carolina State Wolfpack defensive back Asaad Brown Jr. (26) during the second quarter at Wallace Wade Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Zachary Taft-Imagn Images | Zachary Taft-Imagn Images

Defensive Turnaround

Virginia Tech doesn't pose nearly the same threat offensively as Virginia and Duke did to the Wolfpack, making the game a prime opportunity for the unit to turn things around. The NC State defense is currently allowing 29.3 points per game; however, the Hokies averaged less than 20 points scored in their first four games.

At quarterback, Kyron Drones has shown himself to be prone to turnovers. The senior has thrown three interceptions and been sacked 10 times already. The Wolfpack secondary has just one interception so far in 2025, as Ronnie Royal III picked off Robby Ashford in the win over Wake Forest. Cornerbacks Devon Marshall and Brian Nelson II blanketed opposing wide receivers throughout the first four weeks and seem due to play like the ball hawks they were billed as during the offseason.

Aug 28, 2025; Raleigh, North Carolina, USA; North Carolina State Wolfpack defensive end Sabastian Harsh (54) celebrates a sack during the first half of the game against East Carolina Pirates at Carter-Finley Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jaylynn Nash-Imagn Images | Jaylynn Nash-Imagn Images

The Wolfpack will also have defensive end Sabastian Harsh back in the lineup for the entire game and a supposedly healthy Cian Slone to throw at Drones. Virginia Tech's offensive line struggled mightily through the first quarter of the season, meaning it could be a big night for the Wolfpack defensive line.

Sep 11, 2025; Winston-Salem, North Carolina, USA; North Carolina State Wolfpack quarterback CJ Bailey (11) awaits a snap in first half against the Wake Forest Demon Deacons at Allegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Luke Jamroz-Imagn Images | Luke Jamroz-Imagn Images

Playing a Clean Game

Bailey threw an interception in the win over East Carolina and played two totally clean games against Wake Forest and Virginia. The sophomore found himself pressing throughout the loss to Duke. He threw three interceptions and fumbled once. His teammates and head coach weren't worried after the performance about the confidence of the young quarterback.

• "He's the first guy to own anything that he didn't think he did well," Doeren said Monday. "The minute you do that, you give yourself a license to get better."

The Hokies have forced just four turnovers on the season, two coming via interceptions. Bailey should have a prime opportunity to turn things around and put together another solid performance.

The Rains Are Coming

The weather could be a major factor in the game. With rain and potential thunderstorms in the forecast, NC State spent some of the week preparing for a wet and sloppy game. Given Virginia Tech's deficiencies against the run, it could benefit the Wolfpack offense greatly.

NC State should walk out of Carter-Finley Stadium with a stress-free win, barring some sort of hurricane-level conditions.

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