Three keys and a prediction

Factors that will help decide today's game against East Carolina

Ron Kinnan/USAToday sports

The last time NC State played East Carolina, in the hastily scheduled 2018 season finale last December, all the Wolfpack had to was show up to win.

That won't be the case for today's rematch at Carter-Finley Stadium.

This is a different band of Pirates with a new captain, a new attitude and many of the key players that missed last year's game because of injury -- including quarterback Holton Ahlers -- back and anxious to erase the memory of that 58-3 embarrassment eight months ago.

While this game promises to be more competitive than the last, State is still a 17 1/2-point favorite. Here are three keys that will help coach Dave Doeren's team get the new season off to a winning start:

Establish an offensive identity

Not only will the Wolfpack be breaking in a new quarterback, a new running back, three new offensive linemen and a group of receivers unaccustomed to playing a primary role, but this will also be the regular season debut of two rookie co-offensive coordinators. It's as important for new play callers Des Kitchings and George McDonald to get on the same page as quarterback Matthew McKay early as it is for McKay to develop a game day chemistry with the rest of his unit on the field. With more of a dual thread leader and a stable of talented young running back, this offense promises to have a different look than the one led by Ryan Finley over the past three years. The faster the Wolfpack figures out just what that look will be, the better.

Don't give ECU any help

The Pirates have averaged a minus-16 turnover margin for the past three seasons under former coach Scottie Montgomery. In other words, they don't take the ball away very often. So it's incumbent on State not to start handing it over to them today, especially with a young quarterback making his first career start. Conversely, the Wolfpack's defense must avoid the kind of catastrophic breakdowns that lead to momentum changing big plays and give an underdog like the Pirates -- who have lost 19 of their last 22 games on the road -- incentive to believe they can realistically pull off the upset.

Forget the past

The worst thing State can do today is walk onto the field expecting a repeat performance of last year's blowout. The demoralized Pirates barely went through he motions that day with an interim coach and a patchwork roster. This time they come to Carter-Finley healthy and motivated, with a talented young quarterback who threw 12 touchdowns and was intercepted only three times in five games as a starter before suffering the injury that prevented him from playing against the Wolfpack. More importantly, ECU is now led by a coach whose previous team James Madison gave State all it could handle in its opening game a year ago. Mike Houston's Dukes were a physical team that ran the ball effectively and kept the Wolfpack from sustaining drives until the final minute of a game whose outcome was in doubt right to the end. That's the kind of opponent State should be prepared to face today.

Prediction

ECU will keep this one competitive for the better part of a half or even into the third quarter before the Wolfpack offense begins to find a rhythm and some confidence. and breaks it open. State 38, ECU 20.