History Says NC State Can Beat No. 1 Duke
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RALEIGH — Much of Will Wade's mission and strategy for turning things around at NC State and making a consistent force focused on embracing the nostalgia and historical aspects of the program and its lore. With Duke, the No. 1 team in the nation, about to walk into the Lenovo Center on Monday, the Wolfpack's best shot at beating the Blue Devils might rely entirely on a wacky part of history.
There are two data points for the Pack on Monday that suggest the team, fresh off losing to lowly Notre Dame, could have a chance to knock off the Blue Devils. Wade chooses to live in reality, but for one night in the 2025-26 season, he might have to embrace the weirdness to give his team the best possible chance to win.
A historically bad spot for Duke
When facing top-ranked teams in the nation, NC State's success rate isn't very high. That shouldn't come as much of a surprise, as very few teams are capable of beating the very best in the country on a given night, with the Wolfpack holding a 6-28 all-time record in such matchups. However, everything changes when the Blue Devils walk into the building in Raleigh.
The Wolfpack's last win over a No. 1 came in 2013, when Mike Krzyzewski led Duke into the then PNC Arena to face an NC State squad helmed by Mark Gottfried. It took a 25-point effort from Wolfpack C.J. Leslie to overcome the Blue Devils, but it was enough. Lorenzo Brown chipped in with 13 assists and 12 points in something akin to a 2026 Quadir Copeland performance, although the two players vary greatly stylistically.
Gottfried's team went on to finish 11-7 in ACC play, a record Wade's group could be bound for 13 years later. On that day in Jan. 2013, the Wolfpack did exactly what any team trying to stun one of the top dogs needs to. It won the crowd early, keeping the Wolfpack faithful engaged with every 3-point bomb from Scott Wood. It played with an edge, something Wade's group has struggled with at times. Most importantly, it played like a desperate team that wanted it more.
The victory over Duke with a No. 1 next to its name that came before the 2013 chapter in this bizarre historical trend came in 2004, when Herb Sendek, now coaching Santa Clara, led the Pack to a 78-74 win over the Blue Devils in the same building, then called RBC Center. Two wins, two different naming rights partners. Wade could be the first one to christen the Lenovo Center with a victory over top-ranked Duke.
A bizarre positive for the Blue Devils
Duke has won five national championships in its history, all five of which occurred during Krzyzewski's 42 seasons leading the program. The three victories in 1991, 2010 and 2015 all share a highly coincidental and borderline nonsensical piece of trivia. Of course, it all connects back to the Wolfpack, the school down the road from Durham that long bugged Krzyzewski during his tenure.
Current coach Jon Scheyer was a part of the wacky piece of lore that could help him reach a level of glory he's yet to ascend to as he navigates his fourth season in charge. The Blue Devils went to Reynolds Coliseum on Jan. 23, 1991, to face the Wolfpack. Duke lost. Two months later, Christian Laettner and Krzyzewski hoisted their first national championship trophy.
Fast-forward 19 years and Krzyzewski leads Duke and a young point guard named Jon Scheyer into the RBC Center, once again losing to the Wolfpack. A few months later, Gordon Hayward's heave from midcourt did everything but go in, and the Blue Devils were national champions again in 2010. Still, the Wolfpack held Raleigh bragging rights.
Five years go by and the Blue Devils fall yet again in Raleigh. Starting to sense a pattern? Duke wins the most important game of the 2015 season over Wisconsin, but not without a blemish courtesy of the Wolfpack. Now, here's where things get very strange. All three title games came in years where Duke failed to beat the Wolfpack in the North Carolina state capital. Still, there was another common thread: all three national championships were played in Indianapolis.
The site of the 2026 title game? Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis. While that nugget might not cause great joy for NC State fans, a win over the Blue Devils on Monday would go a long way in restoring some of the confidence lost in Wade's team over the last three weeks. Bizarre trivia can't win a basketball game for the Wolfpack, but precedent says there's a chance.
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Tucker Sennett graduated summa cum laude with a B.A. in Sports Journalism from the esteemed Walter Cronkite School of Journalism and Mass Communication at Arizona State University. A former basketball player, he has gained valuable experience working at Cronkite News and brings a deep passion for sports and reporting to his role as the NC State Wolfpack Beat Writer On SI.
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