NC State Men's Basketball Bracketology Update With Two Weeks Left

RALEIGH — There are just two weeks left in the regular season for NC State men's basketball, but the Wolfpack already finds itself in a position where it must look ahead to March and the NCAA Tournament. With a 19-8 record, Will Wade's team is in a position where it could make some noise when the calendar flips, but there is still work to be done in the league schedule.

From a bracketology standpoint, the Pack should feel confident about a firm position in the field of 68, especially after a win over the diminished 16th-ranked North Carolina Tar Heels earlier in Week 15 of the season. Another Quadrant 1 win could push NC State over the top when it comes to the seeding battle.

What the Bracketologists think of the Wolfpack

Feb 17, 2026; Raleigh, North Carolina, USA; NC State Wolfpack head coach Will Wade reacts during the first half against the North Carolina Tar Heels at Lenovo Center. Mandatory Credit: Zachary Taft-Imagn Images | Zachary Taft-Imagn Images

The Wolfpack is just on the brink of securing a seven-seed in the NCAA Tournament field, according to the Bracket Matrix, a service that aggregates 121 different Bracketology services in an effort to find the average for each team vying for a tournament position. NC State appeared on all 121 recognized brackets according to the Matrix.

The remainder of the ACC schedule includes two enormous opportunities for NC State to improve an already solid resumé. The Wolfpack heads just north to face Virginia, a ranked opponent that already secured one win over the Pack back in January, on Tuesday. Then, the Pack hosts a Duke team considered by some to be the top team in the nation on March 2.

Ven-Allen Lubin and Darrion Williams — Feb 17, 2026; Raleigh, North Carolina, USA; NC State Wolfpack forward Darrion Williams (1) looks on after scoring against the North Carolina Tar Heels during the second half at Lenovo Center. Mandatory Credit: Zachary Taft-Imagn Images | Zachary Taft-Imagn Images

ESPN's Joe Lunardi listed the Wolfpack on the higher end of the spectrum in his Feb. 20 update of the bracket. The ESPN bracket has been prone to volatility over the last two weeks and Lunardi's hit rate hasn't been as high as many other bracketologists listed on the Matrix. Still, it's a solid reference point and doesn't fall under any extremes.

NC State holds a 5-5 record in Quadrant 1 games and really only has one blemish on the resumé, that being the loss to Georgia Tech, which currently sits as a Quadrant 4 loss. The late success of programs like Florida State and Wake Forest is benefiting the Wolfpack greatly, but a win over Virginia or Duke would push the Pack over the top when it comes to national respect.

Feb 17, 2026; Raleigh, North Carolina, USA; NC State Wolfpack guard Paul McNeil Jr. (2) and North Carolina Tar Heels guard Derek Dixon (3) dive for the ball during the first half at Lenovo Center. Mandatory Credit: Zachary Taft-Imagn Images | Zachary Taft-Imagn Images

Success in the ACC Tournament would go a long way in supporting a jump up the seedlines for the Wolfpack. The first team ahead of the Wolfpack on Bracket Matrix is Wisconsin, which holds a 5-7 record in Quadrant 1 opportunities, but avoided the Quadrant 3 or 4 loss that stains the Wolfpack's tournament biography.

There is a lot on the line in the final two weeks of the season for the Wolfpack. It all starts on Tuesday night against the Cavaliers.

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