How Many Games Will NC State Win In 2025?

Multiple analysts and models have chimed in on how many games Dave Doeren's Wolfpack squad will win in 2025.

Dec 28, 2024; Annapolis, MD, USA; North Carolina State Wolfpack mascot Mr. Wolf runs ion the field with the team before the start of the Go Bowling Military Bowl against the East Carolina Pirates at Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Tommy Gilligan-Imagn Images | Tommy Gilligan-Imagn Images

The 2024 season was a disappointment in many ways for the North Carolina State football program. The team dropped from nine wins to six, suffered several key injuries and blew a number of winnable games, including the season-ending loss to ECU.

Entering the 2025 season, prognosticators have reached something of a consensus when discussing the potential of the ACC teams.

ESPN Rankings

ESPN's Bill Connelly analyzed the Atlantic Coast Conference and its teams, breaking down the likelihood of wins and losses for each team.

According to the site's continuity table, NC State returns 61% of its production from a season ago, good for 40th nationally.

Connelly's models project the Wolfpack's average number of wins for the 2025 season to be 6.6 wins. The models give NC State a 78.1% chance to win six or more games, but only a 0.2% chance to win more than 10 games.

The analyst expressed skepticism regarding NC State's sweeping changes to the coaching staff, but was complimentary and upbeat about one unit's potential.

"If development and a new playcaller result in fewer negative plays -- the Pack were 119th in turnovers, 116th in stuff rate and 74th in sack rate -- this could be State's best offense since 2021," Connelly wrote. "That could be enough to drive a solid season if the defense doesn't collapse further."

ACC Media Poll

The 183 contributors to the ACC media poll also placed the Wolfpack within the middle of the ACC pack. Out of the 17 teams in the conference, the voters picked NC State to finish 10th.

Voters picked NC State to finish below its Tobacco Road rivals Duke and North Carolina, but picked them to finish above Wake Forest.

CBS Sports

While CBS Sports hasn't made a true prediction yet, Chip Patterson laid out what he believes to be the best and worst-case scenarios for each team in the ACC.

Patterson's best case scenario for the Wolfpack is a finish at 9-3, with head coach Dave Doeren coming just short of the 10 win mark once again.

"Quarterback CJ Bailey takes the next step in his development and guides an offense with plenty of returning talent into the top tier of the ACC. The Wolfpack aren't able to pull off stunning upsets on the road against Notre Dame and Miami, but benefit from home cooking with key coin-flip games like Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech, Florida State and North Carolina all being in Carter-Finley Stadium," Patterson said.

As for the worst-case scenario, Patterson predicted a dire situation. He claimed the Wolfpack could finish as poorly as 4-8, missing out on a bowl appearance.

"A defense that took a big step back in 2024 -- giving up 30.2 points per game after allowing less than 21 in three straight seasons -- does not return to form. In fact, it becomes a liability. Mid- and late-season coin-flip games keep breaking the other way and it brings some deep frustration to the forefront for a fan base that saw three home losses last year and a bowl defeat to in-state foe ECU," Patterson said.

While these predictions and projections can help forecast what might happen in the 2025 season, we won't know much about the Wolfpack until the team takes the field at the end of August.

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