Can Nebraska Make the Final Four? Here’s What History Says

Nebraska has been a 2-seed in the last three ESPN Bracketology projections by Joe Lunardi. The Huskers were a 3-seed in the three projections before that.

So, do 2-seeds and 3-seeds advance to the Final Four? Quick answer (deeper answer below): Yes, 2-seeds and 3-seeds do make the Final Four. It’s not exclusively the domain of 1-seeds.

Other seeds make the Final Four, too. You’d be surprised. And that’s one of the selling points of March Madness — the surprises.

The NCAA Tournament has become a uniquely American sporting icon based on the chaos of upsets, near upsets and close games. There’s nothing quite like cheering wildly for a 14-seed you've never heard of trying to upset a 3-seed from a power conference.

It’s not to preserve your bracket, either. It’s to see another Goliath go down.

Huskers bleeding blue for this year at least

Don’t want to get ahead of ourselves here, but Nebraska obviously is a force in men’s basketball this season. Besides all of the Bracketology love the Huskers have received, CBS Sports’ Bracketology on Friday listed the Huskers as a 1-seed along with Michigan, Arizona and Duke. A lot of basketball blue-blood types.

Obviously, Nebraska is not a traditional blue blood in basketball. But this year? Yes. The seventh-ranked Huskers have roared through their schedule and sit at 20-0, one of only three undefeated teams in all of America. The Huskers look as if they can play with the big boys of the sport and will get a serious test of their stature on Tuesday at No. 3 Michigan.

Can the Huskers make the Final Four? It’s still January, so it’s early for deep analysis on that possibility. But Husker fans have thought about it and with each win and not losing, well, you never know.

With 11 regular-season games remaining plus the Big Ten Tournament, the Huskers’ seeding could change and change again. Nebraska has Illinois, Purdue, Iowa, Northwestern, Penn State and Maryland still to play at Pinnacle Bank Arena. The Huskers have Michigan, Rutgers, Iowa, USC and UCLA ahead on the road.

Let’s take a historical look at how many different seeds have made the Final Four, made the title game and won the national championship. The statistics, provided by the NCAA, start in 1985 — so, that’s 40 years — when the field expanded to 64 teams.

Since Nebraska was deemed a 1-seed by CBS Sports, let’s start there. Since 1985, 66-of-160 (41.2 percent) No. 1 seeds made the Final Four, 41 made the championship game and 26 won the national championship.

Only twice have all four No. 1 seeds made the Final Four — 2008 (Kansas, Memphis, North Carolina and UCLA) and 2025 (Auburn, Duke, Florida and Houston). In 2008, Kansas won the title; in 2025, it was Florida. Only three times has there been a Final Four without any No. 1 seeds (2006, 2011, 2023).

With its rough Big Ten schedule ahead, Nebraska might not wind up a 1-seed. But in a thoroughly unpredictable 2026 in college athletics, who knows?

How about 2-seeds and 3-seeds?

These are the slots Nebraska lately been projected into the most. Not sure how far a non-blue blood like Nebraska would fall after a loss, but a 2-seed or 3-seed — for now — sounds logical for the Huskers come March.

Since 1985, 2-seeds advanced to the Final Four 32 times (20 percent), they made the championship game 12 times and won the national title five times.

In a possibly alarming stat, 15-seeds have upset 2-seeds 11 times. Since 1985, 15-seeds are 11-149 all-time against 2s, a 6.88 win percentage. Good odds if you are the 2-seed, but not a lock.

There is a huge drop-off for 3-seeds making the Final Four. Why? Mathematics has its say. If seedings hold, a 3-seed would need to defeat a 2-seed in the Sweet 16 and a 1-seed in the Elite Eight to advance to the Final Four. And getting to the Sweet 16 can be a task in itself.

Only 17 times has a 3-seed made the Final Four. Twelve 3-seeds made the title game and four 3-seeds won the national championship.

For the glass-half-empty crowd, 14-seeds have upset 3-seeds 23 times since 1985.

4-seeds and lower

Two 4-seeds have won the national title, four have made the championship game and 15 have made the Final Four.

How the other seeds have fared:

* 5-seeds: 9 Final Fours, 4 title games, 0 titles
* 6-seeds: 3 Final Fours, 2 title games, 1 title
* 7-seeds: 3 Final Fours, 1 title game, 1 title
* 8-seeds: 6 Final Fours, 4 title games, 1 title
* 9-seeds: 2 Final Fours, 0 title games, 0 titles
* 10-seeds: 1 Final Four, 0 title games, 0 titles
* 11-seeds: 6 Final Fours, 0 title games, 0 titles
* Seeds 12-16 have never made a Final Four.

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