Women’s Basketball Bubble Watch: How Conference Tournaments Impact the Final Field

A look at the teams on the bubble who will have a nervous Selection Sunday.

Audi Crooks (center) and Iowa State lost in the opening round of the Big 12 tournament. | Scott Winters/Icon Sportswire/Getty Images

Selection Sunday is mere days away.

That means it’s nearly time for pencils down for teams across the nation who have to turn in their polished (or not so much) résumés to the selection committee. There are still a handful of automatic NCAA tournament bids pending, including the potential bubble implications at this weekend’s Ivy Madness.

On selection Sunday, the question that everyone knows the answer to will be revealed immediately. Top-ranked UConn will be the top seed in the NCAA tournament after completing the 11th undefeated regular season in program history. The Huskies look to defend their title and complete their seventh undefeated season and first since Breanna Stewart won her fourth NCAA title in 2016. That team had Napheesa Collier and Gabby Williams, plus plenty of other WNBA players.

Last year’s title squad had Paige Bueckers, while this year’s UConn team is headlined by Sarah Strong and Azzi Fudd, who are both primed for standout professional careers.

Although UConn can take it easy on selection Sunday, plenty of other teams will head into the evening with gnawed fingernails. A notable bubble case is Iowa State’s. The Cyclones are headlined by Audi Crooks, who is second in the nation in scoring behind Vanderbilt’s Mikayla Blakes. The Cyclones should get in, but a recent tough stretch won’t let them relax until their name is called.

It’s difficult for any mid-major school to get an at-large bid. Richmond and North Dakota State stand out as teams who could still go dancing after falling in the conference tournament, but that’s all in the committee’s hands now.

Before the 68-team field is announced, here’s a look at the bubble for the women’s NCAA tournament as things currently stand.

Last four byes

• Illinois
• Syracuse
• Virginia Tech
• Iowa State

The Fighting Illini may be overqualified as a bubble team, but Shauna Green’s group should make its second straight NCAA tournament appearance after a win over Michigan State in the Big Ten tournament. A close loss to No. 7 Iowa was impressive, too. At 23–8, Syracuse should be safely in the 68-team field following wins over myriad bubble teams in the final stretch of the regular season. Virginia Tech is in a similar boat with a close win over Virginia in its regular-season finale. Iowa State should hear its name called on Selection Sunday even after dropping three of its last four games. The Cyclones fell to Arizona State in its Big 12 tournament opener, but have been great this season aside from the recent stretch and a five-game losing streak in January.

Last four in

• Clemson
• Princeton
• Colorado
• Arizona State

In the first year of the Molly Miller era, the Sun Devils started 15–0 before a rocky finish to the conference slate. Arizona State impressed in the Big 12 tournament, winning two games before falling to eventual champion West Virginia. That helps ASU’s case as the Sun Devils look to make their first NCAA tournament appearance since 2019. Colorado helped its case in the Big 12 tournament, too, defeating Kansas and Baylor before falling in a close one to the Mountaineers. Losses to Utah and BYU to finish the regular season stung, but Colorado’s conference tournament showing should bring the Buffaloes favor in the committee’s eyes.

Princeton could take care of business in Ivy Madness and get an automatic bid. Even if the Tigers fall, however, I like their case over other mid-major teams. Princeton is ranked No. 23 and has only lost to Columbia and Maryland this season,  and is currently 24–3 heading into the conference tournament. As for Clemson, the Tigers got a bubble win in the ACC tournament over Virginia before falling to eventual champion Duke. Clemson hopes that’s enough for the committee to forget about the blowout loss to Stanford to finish the regular season. We’ll see if the committee agrees and gives the Tigers an at-large bid to capitalize on the school’s best season in two decades.

First four out

• BYU
• North Dakota State
• Nebraska
• Virginia

Now for the tougher cases. After an incredible season, North Dakota State fell to South Dakota State in the Summit League championship game and missed out on an automatic bid. At 28–4, the Bison have a strong tournament case, it’s just a matter as to whether the Summit is a two-bid league and NDSU’s résumé is as strong as any to make that come to fruition. Losses early in the season to Gonzaga and Nebraska could keep the Bison out, however. Nebraska needed a strong Big Ten tournament showing to get past its dreadful end to the regular season, when it lost nine of 13 games. Unfortunately for the Cornhuskers, that didn’t happen with an opening-round loss to Indiana.

Virginia had an up-and-down end to the season. Wins over Stanford and Louisville brought momentum to the Cavaliers’ tournament case, but the Hoos dropped three games in a row including two losses to bubble teams Virginia Tech and Clemson to finish the year. BYU is a tough team to leave out as the Cougars were on a five-game winning streak before they lost to TCU in the Big 12 tournament quarterfinals. Three wins over rival and fellow bubble team Utah down the stretch helps, but a disappointing home loss to an 11–20 Cincinnati team on Feb. 17 and 9–9 conference record looms heavy.

Next four out

• Richmond
• Indiana
• Stanford
• Utah

Richmond is another mid-major with a strong tournament case, but the Spiders lost to George Mason for the second time this season in the Atlantic 10 semifinals. Rhode Island got the A-10’s auto-bid while having the best at-large case of the conference’s top teams. Richmond did have a tough non-conference schedule before the A-10 slate, but the Spiders needed a better result in the conference tournament and specifically a win over the Patriots.

The Hoosiers finished their season strong and got a bubble win over Nebraska in the Big Ten tournament. However, an 0–10 start to its conference schedule is simply too much to look past. It appears that Stanford will miss the Big Dance for the second straight year since longtime coach Tara VanDerveer retired and passed the keys of the program to longtime assistant Kate Paye. The Cardinal dropped nine of 11 games over a stretch from Jan. 11 to Feb. 19. They turned things around to end the regular season with three straight wins, including a stomping of Clemson. Stanford needed just a bit more in the ACC tournament, which it didn’t get with an opening-round loss to Miami.

Utah had a strong win over eventual Big 12 tournament champion West Virginia on Jan. 27, but the Utes couldn’t capitalize on plenty of opportunities against fellow bubble teams at the end of the season other than a win over Colorado. Most notably, Utah lost to BYU three times as the Cougars also hope to hear their names called on Selection Sunday.

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