Where Nebraska Men’s Basketball Stands in ESPN’s NCAA Tournament Tiers

ESPN had a fun exercise where it ranked 47 college basketball teams and their NCAA Tournament viability with Selection Sunday only 42 days away.

Nebraska is ranked in Tier II: “Final Four contenders.” This tier seems appropriate for a so-far successful Huskers team that hasn’t been here, hasn’t been this good. Maybe they’re a contender, maybe they’re more. And most importantly: When the time comes, will Nebraska (20-1) hold up to the intense pressure of the NCAA Tournament?

Better teams than Nebraska have wilted over the years.

The Huskers have held up so far, winning Big Ten games in blowouts, battling every game. They’ve defeated conference powerhouses Illinois, Michigan State and Indiana, and nearly defeated Michigan. Sunday’s rematch against Illinois could tell us plenty about the Huskers and how they bounce back after their first loss of the season.

The NCAA Tournament tends to be the Big Ten magnified, especially after the first round. That’s where the Huskers will put their season on the line, trying to show their season was valid and prove they belong.

Eight other teams are stuffed into Tier II and, yes, there are some college basketball elites here.

* Nebraska
* Duke
* Houston
* Purdue
* Iowa State
* Gonzaga
* BYU
* Illinois
*Texas Tech

ESPN writers Jeff Borzello and Myron Medcalf wrote about the qualifications and characteristics of Tier II teams: “The NCAA Tournament is often defined by the performances of players who step up in high-stakes moments, which means success in March depends on talent capable of shifting into a higher gear. The teams in this tier certainly are not without their flaws, but they could close the gap between them and the national championship favorites if their respective stars reach their ceilings in the weeks ahead.”

Nebraska’s balance is a strength and its players are capable of stepping up in “high-stakes moments.” It’s already happened this season.

Can Huskers make the Final Four?

Simple answer: Yes. Logical answer: Well, maybe.

Getting to the Final Four is difficult. A team has to win four high-stakes tournament games in 10 or 11 days to make the Final Four. Fifth-ranked Nebraska currently is a 2-seed in ESPN’s Bracketology — and a 1-seed in CBS Sports’ Bracketology.

Both projections were published after Nebraska suffered its first loss of the season at Michigan. Maintaining that projection shows in definitive terms the Huskers’ strength through the first 21 games.

As a 2-seed, say, the Huskers should break their 0-8 skid in NCAA Tournament games. A victory in the first round would set up Nebraska with the winner of the 7-10 game to get to the Sweet 16.

It’s an enormous advantage — in theory — to have such a low seed for the first two rounds. A 7-seed could be the most difficult roadblock for Nebraska to get to the Sweet 16. However, 7-seeds are usually a good team that would present a challenge to a 2-seed. Bracketology’s current seven seeds: Villanova, Auburn, SMU and Saint Louis.

Once a team makes the Sweet 16, gotta figure the 1-seed will be there … waiting. Bracketology’s current No. 1 seeds: Arizona, Duke, UConn and Michigan, a Murderer’s Row of modern college basketball. If the 3-seed gets through to the Sweet 16, the 2-3 matchup to get to the Elite Eight often is a one-possession, physical slugfest.

Then, the Elite Eight game often is more treacherous.

Top tier: 'National championship favorites'

Three teams are in ESPN’s Tier I: “National championship favorites”: Arizona, Michigan and UConn. Interesting choice to leave Duke out of this tier, as the Blue Devils are a 1-seed in the latest Bracketology.

Borzello and Medcalf said Arizona’s win at UConn in November — after wins over Florida, UCLA, Auburn and Alabama — has the Wildcats as one of the favorites to the win the national title.

For UConn, its wins over BYU, Illinois, Kansas and Florida have the now-healthy Huskies as a possibility to win their third title in four seasons.

Michigan has size but also an improving point guard in North Carolina transfer Elliot Cadeau. The Wolverines last week defeated undefeated Nebraska, then went to Michigan State and impressively defeated the Spartans, 83-71.

The other tiers

Seven teams are in Tier III: “Second-weekend threats.” Borzello and Medcalf wrote: “This tier is full of teams that have notable strengths but glaring weaknesses that could prevent them from advancing beyond the Sweet 16 or Elite Eight despite being capable of reaching those second-weekend rounds.”

This tier includes:

* Michigan State
* Florida
* Arkansas
* Kansas
* Vanderbilt
* Virginia
* Alabama

Nebraska forward forward Berke Buyuktuncel defends Michigan State center Carson Cooper during the second half. — Nebraska forward forward Berke Buyuktuncel defends Michigan State center Carson Cooper during the second half at Pinnacle Bank Arena. | Dylan Widger-Imagn Images

Tier IV is “Final Four or first-round exit?” There are some heavyweights here.

* St. John’s
* Kentucky
* Louisville
* North Carolina
* Tennessee

Tier V is “Can win a game.” There are solid teams here.

* Clemson
* Georgia
* SMU
* Iowa
* Auburn
* NC State
* Saint Mary’s
* Saint Louis
* Wisconsin
* Villanova
* Utah State
* Texas A&M
* UCF
* Miami (Fla.)
* UCLA
* Ohio State
* San Diego State

Nebraska forward Pryce Sandfort (21) grabs a rebound away from Ohio State center Christoph Tilly (13) during the second half. — Nebraska forward Pryce Sandfort (21) grabs a rebound away from Ohio State center Christoph Tilly (13) during the second half at the Schottenstein Center. | Adam Cairns/Columbus Dispatch / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

When a team makes an unexpected run to the Sweet 16, look for a team or two from Tier V. These are the kind of teams, every year, that get hot in March and surprise favored teams.

Tier VI: “Potential Cinderella.”

* Miami, Ohio
* Murray State
* McNeese
* Liberty
* Yale
* UNC Wilmington

It’s easy to dismiss these teams with a big yawn, but one of these Potential Cinderellas always seems to knock off a 3-seed or a 4-seed. Happens every year. We love it and so does a good hunk of Americans.

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