5 Reasons Matt Rhule Won't Leave for Penn State; Why Nebraska Will Be OK If He Does

In the world of college football, the bombshell firing from Happy Valley has Nebraska fans worried about the status of their own head coach. Penn State fired James Franklin after a disappointing 3-3 start to the 2025 season, ending a tenure that compiled 145 wins, one Big Ten championship, and a CFP appearance last season.

Oct 11, 2025; University Park, Pennsylvania, USA; Penn State Nittany Lions head coach James Franklin | Matthew O'Haren-Imagn Images

Enter Matt Rhule, the Nebraska head coach and Penn State alum from the mid-1990s. He's suddenly become the hottest name in the search. Rhule's ties to his alma mater—where he played and even started his coaching career as a volunteer assistant—make him a "logical candidate", but let's pump the brakes. Rhule isn't bolting Lincoln for State College.

The math, the momentum, and the man himself all point to him staying right where he is: building something special here in Lincoln, Nebraska. And even if he did walk? Nebraska would land on its feet, buyout check in hand. Here's why.

The Steep Price of a Homecoming: Why Rhule Stays in Lincoln

Rhule's third season at Nebraska has been a revelation. The Huskers currently sit at 5-1, with an elite special teams unit, a young and athletic defense, and an offense humming with Dylan Raiola under center. Rhule has infused Lincoln with stability after years of chaos, providing Husker fans with a glimpse of optimism. Leaving now? Matt Rhule has built a culture on trust and accountability; this would throw everything he's built out the window.

The Buyout Barrier: A $70 Million Headache for Penn State

Start with the numbers. Rhule's eight-year, $74 million contract, inked in 2022, carries a buyout number of $5 million if he leaves Nebraska before Jan. 1, 2026.

But Penn State's tab doesn't stop there. Firing James Franklin triggers a buyout north of $48.6 million—his full remaining contract value through 2031, minus any mitigation from future earnings. Franklin's deal paid him $8 million annually, so we're talking a more than $49 million hit for Penn State.

Penn State athletic director Pat Kraft gives head football coach James Franklin a big hug | Dan Rainville / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Now add on Rhule's new contract. To lure him, Penn State would need to eclipse his current $8.5 million salary—likely pushing toward $10-12 million per year, with incentives that could balloon the total package to $80-100 million over eight years. Add it up: Nebraska's buyout ($5M) + Franklin's severance ($49M) + Rhule's signing bonus and upfront guarantees (easily $10-15M). That's $70 million in immediate outflows for Penn State, before a single practice. Penn State Athletic Director Pat Kraft, a good friend of Matt Rhule, might sweeten the pot with facility upgrades or staff budgets, but even Penn State's deep-pocketed boosters would likely balk at that tab. It's not just expensive—it's economically irrational in today's NIL era of college football

Credibility on the Line: No More "Three-and-Done" Rhule

Rhule's resume has always been that of a program builder: From his building of Temple, his success at Baylor, or now with Nebraska, from 3-9 to a potential contender. Each stop lasted less than four full years before the NFL or a bigger gig called. Jumping to Penn State after three full seasons in Lincoln would cement a "mercenary" label, eroding the loyalty he preaches. Recruits want stability; boosters want commitment. At 50 years old, Rhule's building a legacy at Nebraska—not a carousel rider. Why risk the narrative when he's finally got the pieces in place here?

The Frost Warning: "Home" Can Be a Trap

Bill Moos and Scott Frost at press conference announcing Frost's hiring. — Scott Frost, introductory press conference | University of Nebraska Communications

Now, you might think Matt Rhule could learn a few things from his predecessor, Scott Frost. The Wood River native and Nebraska alum returned in 2018 as a savior, promising to restore glory to his "home" state and alma mater. Instead, it imploded with a 16-31 record. Penn State will definitely try to tug on those alma mater heartstrings, but Rhule knows "going home" isn't always the smartest decision, especially after firing a great coach like James Franklin.

Family Roots Run Deep: Nebraska Isn't Just a Job, It's Home

Beyond the field, Rhule's life is woven into Nebraska's fabric. His family adores Lincoln—the low-key vibe and the community embrace. Some people even believe Rhule feels "more Nebraskan than the last coach here," repping that scarlet "N" like a badge of honor and being the school's ultimate ambassador.

And his wife, Julie? She's not just along for the ride; she's invested. In 2024, she opened a Drybar salon in Lincoln's Haymarket district, channeling her entrepreneurial spirit into a local venture that's become a go-to spot for Husker wives and fans alike. Uprooting that? It'd mean closing a business and disrupting his family in a city that's treated the Rhules like royalty. As Julie told local media, Lincoln's "family culture" is irreplaceable.

The Mission Incomplete: Love for Lincoln Trumps Legacy Pull

Rhule didn't sign up for quick fixes; he signed up to be the long-term solution and put the Huskers back on the map where they belong. Nebraska had a reputation for firing coaches too often and not having enough program stability. Now? Nebraska is stable as ever and Matt Rhule has them back to national relevance.

No, it's not his alma mater, but Rhule's built something "second to none" in Lincoln: a program with identity, grit, and home of the greatest fans in college football. Penn State offers prestige, sure, but Nebraska offers purpose. The job's not done.

If Rhule Does Bolt: Nebraska's will hire an Elite Coach

Hypothetically, if Rhule entertains the offer and Penn State foots the bill? Panic not, Husker Nation. Matt Rhule has put together the blueprint for the next head coach. Plus, with Athletic Director Troy Dannen calling the shots, there is zero doubt he will use that freed-up money to lure an elite head coach.

Nov 4, 2024; Lincoln, Nebraska, USA; Nebraska Cornhuskers Athletic Director Troy Dannen | Dylan Widger-Imagn Images

In the end, Rhule's story at Nebraska feels like a destiny unfinished. He shouldn't take the job, but if he does, Husker fans will have to trust in Troy.

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