An Opening Against Illinois...Can Nebraska Take It?

The Nebraska football program is facing a major step back.

While Oregon and Indiana could fall under the SEC classification of a “quality loss,” the Washington game was anything but that. The game followed a similar script to the prior two losses, except Washington doesn’t have the talent of either Indiana or Oregon. Nebraska held all the advantages, yet the Huskers’ offense managed only seven points during meaningful play.

Now, Nebraska faces an Illinois team that’s on the rise. The Fighting Illini have won three straight games, including a win over Oregon. Nebraska is just 2-4 against Bret Bielema, who, of course, spoiled Nebraska’s Big Ten debut in 2011. Illinois is a well-coached team, which is kryptonite for Matt Rhule and his staff. However, Illinois has some vulnerabilities that Nebraska may be able to exploit.

Anthony Colandrea’s Cooling Off

Anthony Colandrea has been a great addition to the Huskers. His dual-threat playmaking has won games for the Huskers and given them a strong chance to beat Indiana. However, his passing has struggled during the losing streak. He’s completed fewer than 60% of his passes in all three of those games.

Game on Paper ranks his EPA per dropback 81st in the country. His passing success rate ranks slightly better at 63rd overall. If his metrics are near the middle of the pack in college football, Nebraska needs to rely less on the passing game. The Huskers currently rank 4th in the Big Ten in pass attempts per game. Colandrea has been better in the first half than in the second half this season.

A fast start could help the Huskers beat the Illini. Illinois's passing defense ranks 123rd in EPA per pass. Nebraska should be able to succeed passing against this defense.

Season total EPA for Katin Houser and Anthony Colandrea. | Arbitrary Analytics

An Old Foe in a New Home

Like Nebraska, Illinois added a veteran quarterback from the portal this offseason: ECU transfer Katin Houser. He’s already started against Nebraska and won. Houser was Michigan State’s quarterback in 2023 when the Spartans defeated the Huskers 20-17 in East Lansing.

He’s been a strong passer in 2026 but missed a game due to injury. He ranks 34th in the country in EPA per dropback and 16th in passing success rate. Like Colandrea, he’s much stronger in the first half, though he’s even more first-half-heavy. He ranks in the 93rd percentile for EPA per play in the first half but falls to the 42nd percentile in the second half. For a Nebraska defense prone to second-half collapses, he could be a welcome change of pace.

Dwindling Ground Game

Nebraska's last two games have been their worst rushing performances in 2026. The Oregon game was the first in which Nebraska failed to reach 100 rushing yards. The Washington game was the first in which the Huskers failed to score on the ground. Jamal Rule exploded on the scene as a superstar in the making, but an injury has limited him throughout conference play.

Rule carried the ball 13 times against Washington and averaged 5.5 yards per carry. If he’s fully healthy, Nebraska needs to give him the ball more. More Jamal Rule could be the antidote to Anthony Colandrea’s struggles. 65% of Rule’s carries and catches have occurred in the first half, while only 35% have been in the second half. For a Nebraska team that often plays with a lead in the second half, it should lean more on the ground game to shorten the second half.

Nebraska rushing stats 2026 | Arbitrary Analytics

Not Flashy, But Consistent

Rob Aurich described Illinois’s ground game this week as “not flashy, but consistent.” In the Big Ten in November, that’s a winning formula. Illinois’s lead back, Aidan Laughery, is tied with Jamal Rule for yards per carry at 6.3 (third in the Big Ten). As a team, Illinois is averaging 5.2 yards per carry, 4th in the conference.

On a team basis, Illinois has a much higher success rate on passes than on rushes (48.2% vs. 42.5%). However, Illinois has some power in its rushing attack. Javari Bennet weighs 235 pounds, and Jordan Anderson weighs 240 pounds. The Fighting Illini have the 8th-shortest average third-down distance on offense in the country at 5.73 yards. Will these big backs be able to punish the Huskers up front? The Blackshirts have forced the 6th-longest average third-down distance in the nation. Keeping those bruising backs on the sidelines will benefit Nebraska.

Illinois rushing stats | Arbitrary Analytics

X Factors

Illinois has a strong offense that will give the Huskers trouble. But the Blackshirts have been solid against strong offenses like Oregon and Indiana. The key battle in this game is whether Anthony Colandrea can bounce back and deliver a consistent passing game. Illinois plays a 3-3-5 defensive scheme, which features 8-man drops and should take away many of the deep shots Nebraska took against Washington (to my personal relief). Instead, Dana Holgorsen said Nebraska should use quicker throws like slants and perimeter passes.

Illinois is allowing the highest opponent completion percentage in the country. Anthony Colandrea needs to take advantage of what Illinois allows and string together time-consuming drives to give the Husker defense some rest. Consistency, not volume, is a major goal for the passing attack this week against Illinois.

This is a pivotal game for Matt Rhule and the Husker program. Nebraska needs to end the losing streak and dispel the reputation of a team that loses in November. Unfortunately, I think Nebraska has a lot working against it. Nebraska struggles against Bret Bielema and in prime-time games. This is a strong opponent for the Huskers to get their offense back on track, given their vulnerable defense and second-half struggles.

However, until Nebraska proves it can overcome whatever mysterious force is plaguing it this season (and for much of the last 20 years), I would have a hard time picking them to win. Despite the favorable matchups, I see another Huskers heartbreak, with the Illini winning 21-17.

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