Pat Forde: College Football Playoff Committee’s Obsession With Alabama Is Unwarranted

The two-loss Crimson Tide got the benefit of the doubt in the first playoff rankings based on a straw-man argument surrounding strength of schedule.

Kalen DeBoer and the Alabama Crimson Tide are inexplicably ranked No. 5 in the first College Football Playoff committee rankings. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

After the first look at the College Football Playoff rankings, one thing remains consistent: It’s good to be Alabama. Sins are forgiven, merits are inflated, comparisons are ignored.

For the third time in the last four years, the CFP selection committee seems to be of a mind to overrate the Crimson Tide. Last year, Alabama moved up with a close win over 5–7 Auburn, then didn’t drop after losing the SEC championship game by three touchdowns—those two things resulted in making the 12-team bracket. In 2023, Alabama jumped over undefeated Florida State for the last spot in the last four-team bracket.

And on Tuesday night, the committee administered the Bama back rub yet again. The two-loss Tide are the No. 5 team in the first rankings—ahead of every other SEC team not named Georgia, ahead of undefeated UCLA, ahead of one-loss BYU, Notre Dame and Wake Forest.

This is certainly not how I see the season to date. In my view, Alabama joins the huddled masses of SEC teams yearning to break into the bracket—alongside Mississippi, Tennessee (which beat Bama by 16 points), Missouri and LSU. The Tide aren’t in, and they sure aren’t No. 5 at this point. That’s ridiculous.

If one thing seems clear as we begin Outrage Season over the rankings, the committee is strongly considering strength of schedule over win-loss record. That’s fine, although the actual metrics being relied upon by committee members matters. (ESPN tends to only show graphics with ESPN metrics.) 

Strength of schedule is going to be the explanation for why 8–0 UCLA is a No. 8 seed in a first-round game and 7–1 Notre Dame is a No. 11 seed playing on the road and 7–1 Wake Forest is nowhere, way down at No. 16, behind every two-loss SEC team other than Missouri.

This is the manifestation of the SEC yearslong drumbeat for SOS to be a prevailing factor. So the league should be happy about that, and about its five teams in the first bracket. But the argument within the argument doesn’t make sense.

I’m not sure how two-loss Alabama, with wins over No. 6 Kentucky and No. 21 South Carolina, can be ranked ahead of two-loss Texas, with wins over No. 10 Mississippi, No. 12 Ohio State and No. 13 Tennessee. In terms of common comparison points, the Longhorns beat the Volunteers by three on the same field where the Tide lost by 16. The only other common opponent is Mississippi State, which both teams beat by a lot.

Alabama running back EJ Crowell runs the ball against Mississippi State in a 56–23 win in early October. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

This was always going to be a tough opening ranking job for the committee. There were not enough high-level nonconference games to get readings on everyone, and then the SEC cannibalism added a second layer of difficulty. Kentucky is the only team in the league that has won more than three games in a row, and South Carolina (three straight) is the only other team that has won more than two.

Head-to-head SEC results become impossible to apply consistently because there have been so many other losses. It’s a mess. Fortunately, there are more games coming that will help clarify things.

Where Alabama is concerned, this Saturday looms as a validation or repudiation point at two-loss LSU. Win that game and the Tide will have more rationale for a top-five ranking. Lose it and they are on the brink of elimination. (Same goes for LSU.) Las Vegas has weighed in with the No. 14 CFP team a 5.5-point favorite over the No. 5 CFP team.

A similar tipping-point showdown between two-loss teams is coming in Columbia, Mo., this week, with No. 7 Texas at No. 18 Missouri. The matchup between No. 2 Georgia and No. 10 Mississippi is not an elimination game for the one-loss Bulldogs, but it would shove the Rebels firmly into the danger zone.

Given where the committee has slotted some non-SEC teams that have a paucity of remaining opportunities to play ranked teams, the path is clear for three-loss teams in the bracket. The league has reset the committee room in terms of what it considers.

If you’re Wake Forest, you have to win out and at least be competitive (again) against Miami in the ACC championship game. Or just win the thing and end any doubt. Anything other than a one-loss Big 12 team figures to be in doubt. (Best outcome for that league this week would be BYU beating Utah and keeping both in the bracket.) 

For the Big Ten, having just three teams in the top 18 and two in the bracket narrows the possibilities. As expected, the committee is looking at Ohio State through a different lens without star quarterback Julian Sayin, unless or until the Buckeyes force them to reconsider.

And for Notre Dame, the situation looks a lot like last year, which ended with being the first team out and a Fighting Irish fit for the ages. The Miami game Saturday is now a must-win.

The good news for everyone is that this Saturday should settle a lot. The bad news for every program but one is that Alabama once again begins the stretch run with Most Favored Two-Loss Nation status, even if it doesn’t make sense.

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