Kentucky vs. Tennessee Prediction, Odds and Key Players to Watch for College Football Week 10

Both the Kentucky Wildcats and Tennessee Volunteers are in the mix to make the College Football Playoff in the 2026 season, though they can’t really afford any more losses if they want to get there.

Kentucky (7-1) has an impressive win over LSU this season, though Will Stein’s group lost to Alabama – another team in the mix for a CFB Playoff spot in the SEC. The Wildcats close the season with three ranked matchups in the SEC (Tennessee, Florida and Missouri) before playing Louisville in the final week of the regular season.

The Wildcats are the No. 8 team in the country, yet they’re underdogs on the road against a Tennessee team that beat Alabama but is coming off a 3-point loss to South Carolina in Week 8. The loss to the Gamecocks put Tennessee’s playoff hopes on life support, though it does have this game and a matchup against LSU left on the schedule where it could build its resume.

The Volunteers are an elite defensive team, but their offense is heavily-reliant on the run game. Tennessee is sixth in rushing success rate and just 118th in passing success rate.

Despite that, George MacIntyre and the Volunteers are nearly favored by a touchdown in this SEC clash.

Here’s a look at the odds, a player to watch and my prediction for this Week 10 battle that could alter the CFB Playoff picture.

Kentucky vs. Tennessee Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

Kentucky +6.5 (-105)
Tennessee -6.5 (-115)

Moneyline

Kentucky: +200
Tennessee: -245

Total

50.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Kentucky vs. Tennessee How to Watch

Date: Saturday, Nov. 7
Time: 6:15 p.m. EST
Venue: Neyland Stadium
How to Watch (TV): ESPN
Kentucky record: 7-1
Tennessee record: 6-2

Kentucky vs. Tennessee Key Player to Watch

Kenny Michey, Quarterback, Kentucky

This season, Minchey has played well for the Wildcats, completing 69.0 percent of his passes for 1,755 yards, 14 touchdowns and just one pick, adding a pair of scores on the ground.

Kentucky relies a lot on the running back trio of CJ Baxter, Jason Patterson and Javontae Barnes, but Minchey’s ability to avoid turnovers is a big reason why the Wildcats are 7-1 this season.

Minchey has six passing scores over his last four games in wins over South Carolina, LSU, Oklahoma and Vanderbilt. This is one of his toughest tests this season, as the Volunteers are No. 16 in the country in adjusted EPA/Play on defense.

If Kentucky is able to navigate Tennessee's defense (10th in EPA/Pass), it has a real shot to make the College Football Playoff in 2026.

Kentucky vs. Tennessee Prediction and Pick

This season, Kentucky is not only 7-1 straight up, but it’s 7-1 against the spread, covering in every game except the loss to Alabama.

Stein has built a formidable offense around Minchey, Baxter and others, as Kentucky ranks 13th in offensive success rate, 20th in EPA/Rush and second in rush play success rate.

The Wildcats haven’t been great on third or fourth down this season (outside the top-100 in success rate on both sides of the ball), but I think they’re undervalued against a Tennessee team that can’t throw the ball effectively this season.

The Volunteers are 121st in the country in EPA/Pass, and while they have an elite running game, Kentucky is 19th in the country in early downs EPA. So, the Wildcats (78th in rush play success rate) may be able to do enough to force Tennessee into some obvious passing situations.

There’s a chance the Volunteers win this game, but they aren’t blowing anyone out in SEC action, beating Alabama by 16 for their biggest win.

I’ll take the points since I don’t trust this Tennessee offense to put up enough points to win at margin.

Pick: Kentucky +6.5 (-105 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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