Analyzing the Huskers' Woes Against the Top 25

Nebraska enters its matchup with Top 25 Michigan on one of the longest winless streaks against ranked opponents
A punt return by De'Mornay Pierson-El late in the first half was instrumental in Nebraska's last win over a ranked team, in 2016 against the Oregon Ducks.
A punt return by De'Mornay Pierson-El late in the first half was instrumental in Nebraska's last win over a ranked team, in 2016 against the Oregon Ducks. | Bruce Thorson-Imagn Images

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The Huskers have gotten off to their best start in 30 years (in terms of net scoring margin, at least), but the difficulty of the schedule is amplified as they begin Big Ten play.

The Michigan Wolverines come to Lincoln with their own five-star quarterback and a top 25 ranking. With this game, the Huskers are looking to do something they haven’t done in nearly a decade: beat a top 25 team.

The last time the Huskers won a game against a top-25 team was the 2016 Oregon game. However, Oregon that season would go on to have its worst record since the 1991 season (4-8 in 2016), even after replacing Dakota Prukop with future star quarterback Justin Herbert. Since that game, Nebraska has lost 28 straight games to ranked opponents.

Only one team in the power conferences has a longer winless streak versus ranked opponents than Nebraska - Rutgers. The Scarlet Knights' last win against a ranked opponent came during the 2009 season against South Florida, while both were members of the Big East. Since Mike Riley’s Huskers defeated the Ducks in Lincoln, every Big Ten team other than Rutgers and Nebraska has won at least four matchups against AP Top 25 opponents. Alabama leads the nation with 41 ranked wins since the Huskers’ last.

Riley was also responsible for the Huskers' last win against a top-10 opponent. In 2015, he led Nebraska to a dramatic comeback win against Michigan State, handing the Spartans their only regular-season loss that year. Only UCLA (against Texas in 2010) and Rutgers (against South Florida in 2007) have longer droughts versus top-10 teams among Big Ten teams.

The Huskers and their fans celebrate after Nebraska's 39-38 win over Michigan State in 2015.
The Huskers and their fans celebrate after Nebraska's 39-38 win over sixth-ranked Michigan State in 2015. | Steven Branscombe-Imagn Images

However, when it comes to winless streaks against the AP Top 5, the Huskers have the longest drought among Big Ten teams. Their last Top 5 win was during the 2001 season versus Oklahoma. Only seven power conference teams have longer droughts, with five of those never having beaten an AP Top 5 team since 1960. The Huskers may get the opportunity to snap this streak as well in their November matchup against Penn State. Although given the Nittany Lions' schedule, they may only be a top-10 team at that point.

The Huskers' streak of losing to ranked teams is another hurdle this team must overcome. In the Huskers' last four games, they’ve demonstrated their growth as a program by winning two one-score games in a row and then winning two games by the largest point totals in the post-Pelini era. Husker fans wanted to see growth from year to year under Matt Rhule. Beating a ranked Michigan team wouldn’t just be a single step forward for the program; it would be a giant leap into the next era of Nebraska football.


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Eric Hess
ERIC HESS

Eric Hess is a Lincoln native and lifelong Husker fan. He founded Arbitrary Analytics in 2018 to analyze the numbers behind Nebraska sports and to help fans gain a deeper understanding of the game beyond just the eye test. As a graduate student at the University of Nebraska, he worked with the sports analytics department of the Nebraska Athletic Performance Lab. He began writing for the Nebraska Cornhuskers on SI in 2024 and has also contributed to Husker Corner.

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