Dave Feit’s Reality Check About Nebraska Football’s Outlook for 2026

August is typically a time of unbridled hope and optimism in college football. Every team is undefeated and dreams of competing for championships. Fans are making plans for postseason travel, hopefully to the playoffs. This is the year it all comes together!

Traditionally, I've used this piece to pump the brakes on the runaway hype train by pointing out some things that could derail the season. Take a look at the 2025 version, and tell me I didn't predict most of the reasons for Nebraska's disappointing 7-6 season.

But this year is different. The mood within the fan base over the past nine months has been unlike anything anybody can remember. Quiet, cautious, and slightly sour. 1620 AM in Omaha has referred to it as the "Bad Vibes Offseason." I think that moniker fits perfectly.

You don't have to look far to find reasons for concern with Nebraska's 2026 season. Some of them are out of NU's control. Others are not. They all present unique challenges that may be difficult to overcome. That is what we're going to discuss here.

If you prefer your preseason content sunny side up, don't worry! I've got you covered. Over here I laid out several reasons why Nebraska can exceed expectations in 2026.

A meat-grinder schedule.

Nebraska's opponents can be split into three different tiers: Easy, Medium, and Hard. The three non-conference opponents (Ohio, Bowling Green, and North Dakota) compose the Easy portion. In theory, these are all winnable games.*

*You'll notice that I'm not guaranteeing ANY wins. I've seen Nebraska teams that were - on paper - better than the 2026 squad is expected to be lose - or get taken to the wire - by no-name, mid-major (or FCS) opponents. Once upon a time, the "N" on the helmet was worth about a touchdown. Teams have not feared Nebraska for a long time.

In the Medium tier are the games should all be winnable as well. This group contains Michigan State (bad last year), Maryland (beat them last year), Rutgers (more like Buttgers, am I right?), and Illinois. Except… new MSU coach Pat Fitzgerald has turned around worse teams. Maryland gave NU everything they wanted in 2025 and won the last time they played in Lincoln. Believe it or not, since the start of the 2020 season, Rutgers has more wins than Nebraska. And Bret Bielema has made a career out of beating Nebraska (5-2 at Wisconsin and Illinois).

After that, comes the Hard tier. This grouping has five opponents ranked* in the preseason AP poll: No. 1 Ohio State, No. 2 Oregon, No. 6 Indiana, No. 17 Washington, and No. 22 Iowa. While a lot can change before these games take place, it is worth noting that the last time Nebraska faced five or more ranked teams in a season was 2021. Some people believe that was one of the greatest seasons of all time!

*I believe I am required by law to mention Matt Rhule's record against ranked teams (0-9 at NU) and point out the last time Nebraska beat a ranked team (No. 22 Oregon in 2016). As a program, Nebraska has lost 30 straight games against ranked teams.

But wait, there's more! Due to how the calendar lays out, Nebraska will only get one off week (October 24, after seven straight games, ending with a trip to Oregon). The second half of the season includes two Friday road games (at Illinois and at Iowa) which means less recovery and prep time.

There's zero point in complaining about the schedule. Nebraska plays in a big-boy conference where at least 16 of the other teams are actively trying to win. Playing a tough conference schedule every year should be the expectation.

Is Nebraska going to start Jeff Sims 2.0 at quarterback?

Husker fans are universally happy to be moving on from Dylan Raiola. This goes beyond the typical transfer portal reactions where fans view the guy leaving as a bum and the guy coming in as a future All-American. I cannot recall seeing any Husker fan or media member suggesting that Nebraska would be better off if they had retained Raiola.

And who knows, it is definitely possible that Anthony Colandrea is the quarterback Husker fans have been looking for. Or, in a worst-case scenario, he is a repeat of the portal quarterback Rhule signed in 2023: Jeff Sims.

Comparing their numbers from the three seasons before they came Lincoln, there are similarities and differences. Colandrea is the more prolific passer. At Virginia and UNLV, he threw for nearly 3,000 more yards (on 350 more attempts), with a completion percentage six points higher than Sims.

Through three seasons, Sims was the better rusher, edging out Colandrea's three-year total by one yard (1,152 to 1,151). However, Sims averaged almost an extra two feet per attempt (4.2 yards per carry to Colandrea's 3.5).

But the real concern with Colandrea - just as it was with Sims - is turnovers. Colandrea has fumbled 16 times in his career, losing seven. In 2025, Colandrea lost four fumbles, tying him for seventh most in the country. That was one less than Arizona State's quarterback: Jeff Sims. Colandrea has thrown 29 interceptions in 33 games. For reference, Dylan Raiola threw 17 interceptions in his 22 career games at Nebraska.

Not lost in this discussion is the fact that Colandrea was not Nebraska's first choice. Notre Dame transfer QB Kenny Minchey was initially committed to Nebraska, but flipped to Kentucky a day later.

While there is always going to be concern about a new quarterback, Colandrea's resume (2026 Mountain West Offensive Player of the Year) is better than what Sims had, as is the fact that Colandrea's plays will be called by Dana Holgorsen instead of Marcus Satterfield.

The depth at running back is unproven.

Glass half full: A year ago in this space, I said "the depth at running back is extremely unproven." At the time, running backs not named Emmett Johnson had a combined eight carries for 14 yards and one touchdown. A year later, that group (Mekhi Nelson, Kwinten Ives, Isaiah Mozee, Janiran Bonner, and Connor Booth) has a combined 78 carries for 405 yards and four touchdowns. That's not horrible.

So, I guess I have to concede that the depth in the RB room is trending in the right direction.

NU's staff took a lot of heat prior to the 2025 season for not trying to acquire an established running back from the transfer portal to back up Johnson. Their gamble paid off as Johnson a) remained healthy and b) put together the best rushing season by a Cornhusker since Ameer Abdullah.

However, Johnson's success meant fewer opportunities for the other backs on the roster. Nelson, Mozee, and Ives had a combined 52 carries for 265 yards against Power Four teams. Half of that amount (26 carries and 140 yards) came in the Las Vegas Bowl after Johnson had declared for the NFL draft.

This offseason, Nebraska once again declined to pursue a running back from the portal.*

*No, I'm not counting the brief tenure of Tikey Hayes. There are dairy products in your fridge that have outlasted his Nebraska career.

Nebraska's coaches all say they like the guys in their room. In theory, I should give them the benefit of the doubt because they were spot on with EJ. However, one did not need to be a football genius to predict a big season for EJ in 2025.*

*"I wouldn't be surprised if (Johnson) had a Marlon Lucky-esque season leading the team in rushing, receptions, and yards from scrimmage." - Me, one year ago. Check, check, and check.

Could any of the three returners (or true freshman Jamal Rule) be a serviceable replacement for Johnson? Absolutely! If Geep Wade's offensive line improves as most people expect, the rushing yards should be easier to come by.

But one of the lingering criticisms of coach E.J. Barthel is his substitution patterns. Will he shuffle players in and out looking to see if they make a big play? Or will he allow somebody to get into a rhythm and establish themself?

A historically bad turnover margin.

Every year, it feels like we talk about how Nebraska needs to be better with the ball on offense, and must generate more takeaways on the defense.

And when the season is over, Nebraska once again has one of the worst turnover margins in the nation. I haven't attempted to crunch the numbers, but I feel if there was a stat for cumulative turnover margin since 2000, the Huskers would be far and away the worst.*

*My sickos curiosity got the best of me. I dug deep into the HuskerMax stat pages and calculated the turnover margin for every Husker season since 2000.

Before we get to the number, let's start with some good news. NU actually had a positive turnover margin in 2025 (+2), their first positive mark since 2016 (+5). Nebraska has been on the positive side of the ledger six times this century, and has broken even twice.

As for the grand total… brace yourself. Since the start of the 2000 season, Nebraska is a cumulative -96 in turnover margin. Negative ninety-six. And that includes a +23 performance in 2003. NU has had a turnover margin of -11 (or worse) eight times this century, including a -20 in 2023.

I didn't compile these numbers for any other school, but I have a hard time believing any P4/5 team has a bigger turnover deficit in the 21st century than Nebraska. Lord only knows how many losses that has led to.

Looking at the 2026 Huskers, I don't think this is the year that Nebraska starts making a serious dent on their 21st century turnover deficit. Mobile quarterbacks tend to be more turnover prone than pocket passers, and as we talked about above, Anthony Colandrea has a history of fumbles and interceptions. If he turns out to be Jeff Sims 2.0, it will be a very long and ugly season.

On defense, there is a ton to love about what Rob Aurich did at San Diego State in 2025. As I noted here (LINK), his Aztecs made dramatic improvements in almost every defensive statistical category, finishing in the top 25 in several areas. However, one of the categories with the smallest bump (and lowest national ranking) was takeaways. San Diego State only had five more takeaways (18) than the 2025 Blackshirts (13). Nebraska has not had 20 or more takeaways since 2019, when they had 21.

The staff's ability to make in-game adjustments seems to be an issue.

The number of fans critical of Matt Rhule has jumped exponentially in the last year. Those criticisms seem to be coming from multiple angles - both related to game days, and well… everything else.

Folks have issues with Rhule's game day coaching (or lack thereof). Wasted timeouts, a seeming lack of adjustments, and reluctance to replace ineffective players. For this section, let's focus in on adjustments.

It is impossible for anybody outside of the program to know a) what adjustments are being made, b) when they're being made, and c) how effective they are. I acknowledge all three of these points.

But I think the 2025 score totals by quarter (using only games against P4 opponents) suggests an issue with in-game adjustments.

In the first quarter of Nebraska's 2025 games, NU outscored teams 69-40. That tells me that NU comes in with a strong game plan, and typically gets off to a strong start. So far, so good!

In the second quarter, NU was outscored 101-80. Does this indicate that opposing coaches figured out what NU was trying to do and made on the fly adjustments? Maybe. I'll also note that seven of NU's second quarter points came on a successful Hail Mary in the Michigan game, so the gap is a little misleading.

The third quarter was where things often fell apart for Nebraska. NU was outscored 104-35 in the third quarter. Every P4 opponent scored at least one third-quarter touchdown. Meanwhile, the Huskers went scoreless seven times. Again, without being in the locker room and on the sidelines, it is impossible to say if this is due to halftime adjustments (either a misstep or a complete lack thereof). I just see losses that became more decisive (Michigan and Utah) and wins that were closer than they needed to be (Michigan State and Maryland) because of the third quarter.

For what it's worth, Nebraska was statistically even with teams in the fourth quarter (outscored 68-62). I found it interesting that NU scored 44 fourth-quarter points in their first four games, and just 18 the rest of the season.

For better - or for worse - this is Matt Rhule's program now.

With the firing of Donovan Raiola, Matt Rhule has removed all but one of the coaches and football staffers who were in Lincoln when Scott Frost was the head coach. The lone holdover? Ron Brown. Considering that Brown's Nebraska career began when Frost was in the seventh grade (1987), I think it is safe to say that he doesn't count as a "Frost guy."

Of the 115 players on the 2026 roster, I believe there are only six players remaining who were on the team in 2022. Those six players - Janiran Bonner, Justin Evans, Luke Lindenmeyer, Roman Mangini, Dylan Parrott, and Gage Stenger - spent the majority of their redshirt seasons with Mickey Joseph as their (interim) head coach. Only Stenger got on the field in 2022 (on special teams versus Michigan two months after Frost was fired).

In his first two years, Rhule strictly avoided bad mouthing Frost (and/or the roster he inherited). If anything, Rhule has been effusive in his praise of his predecessor. I believe this was done because Rhule did not want to alienate himself to the fan base by bad mouthing a native son who won NU's most recent national championship.

But last December, as Nebraska was preparing for the Las Vegas Bowl, Rhule finally went there. "I understand people’s frustrations and things like that," Rhule said. "But if anyone ever just understood what we walked into, they’d be amazed at what we’ve done behind the scenes."

He continued: "I’ve had to do a lot of that stuff because someone else didn’t do it. I shouldn’t have had to do it. Some people take over programs; they don’t have to do that. We had to do a lot of stuff."

At the time, I had two reactions to those comments:

1. I believed him. The Frost era speaks for itself.
2. If the window for blaming Frost had not previously closed, it would be soon.

Nine months later, the "blame Frost" window has been replaced with a mirror. Every coach, every player, every staffer, every detail of the Nebraska football program all the way down to the new uniforms reflects back on the guy who approved it: Matt Rhule.

Sink or swim. It is 100% his show now.

I understand that Rhule is becoming a divisive figure. Your opinion on him will greatly shape if you view this as a reason for optimism or another bullet point of why things won't work out.

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