EA Sports Simulation Matches Nebraska’s Real 5-1 Start, Warns of Late-Season Slide

I'd be the last person that would have told you in the heart of a "real" Nebraska football season, that we needed to go back and look at the tape of the "fake" season we simulated on a video game in July and August––but here we are.

For reference, we simulated Nebraska’s entire football season on the video game EA Sports College Football 26. We left the default settings in place, but turned off injuries because nobody wants to see how back-ups would fare in an already fake season simulation. Outside of that, we let the game speak for itself. Its preseason ratings and its adapted ratings as the season went on determined how the computer-operated Huskers would play.

The reason it’s fitting to relive this unique exercise is pretty simple. It's because the game has been nearly dead on with its predictions for the first half of the season, and it’s so much more than guessing that Nebraska would be 5-1 through its first six games. Once you start to peel back the onion a bit, you realize that it not only predicted the record perfectly, it has also predicted Nebraska’s standout players through the same stretch.

Let’s start with the season openers shall we?

Our season simulation not only predicted a Nebraska win, but it also perfectly predicted a 3-point Nebraska win. The only major discrepancy was the final score of that 3-point Husker triumph.

Real life went to the tune of 20-17 in favor of NU after Malcolm Hartzog potentially made the play of the season to this point – a game-winning interception with just seconds left on the clock. In the video game, Nebraska won with a lot more offense and a lot less defense. The game simulated Nebraska winning 48-45, with you guessed it, Cincinnati not being able to make the plays late to win the game.

Beginner’s luck right?

As we moved on to games two and three, it was understandably pretty hard for the game to mess these up. Akron and Houston Christian, God bless ‘em, were overmatched in real life, and they were overmatched in the video game simulation.

The only real point to make through these two games is that the game correctly guessed Nebraska would have a bit of a hangover from its Cincinnati win when it welcomed Akron to Lincoln for the home opener.

You might remember, Nebraska scored a measly nine points against the Zips in the first quarter before knocking the shoes off of them for the final three quarters in NU’s 68-0 win over Akron. In the video game, not only did Nebraska start slow, but Akron actually shot out to the early 7-0 lead. Eventually, even the game knew that was fool’s gold before handing Nebraska a 48-10 win.

After that, it was a cruise control game against Houston Christian in real life as well as the game, with Nebraska beating “FCS Midwest” 82-7! The real-life Huskers took it a bit easier with NU quarterback Dylan Raiola not seeing much time at all in the second half in a 59-7 win.

Then came Nebraska’s ultimate test, both virtually and in real life. A nationally-ranked Michigan team came to town, begging the question – could the Huskers finally beat a nationally-ranked team? The heartbreaking answer on both sides of this coin was no, and to add salt into the real Husker wound, the video game gave the Huskers more of a chance at winning it than the real team did.

In real life, Nebraska never led in its game against the Wolverines, falling down 10-0 early before tying it at 17 by halftime. However, Michigan added 13 to Nebraska’s 10 to escape with the 30-27 win. In the video game simulation, Nebraska also fell down early, but then they surged back and took a lead that the real team could never muster.

After falling down 7-0, Nebraska scored the next 17 points in the simulation to go up 10 on the Wolverines. Slowly, but surely, Michigan clawed its way back to even with NU before going ahead for good in a 48-34 win over Nebraska. The game gave more hope to the Huskers early, but proved more pessimistic about them late, which makes you appreciate the fight in the real team just a little bit more.

Nonetheless, Nebraska’s now 3-1 in both reality and in the world of make believe, with the “other” Michigan school coming in next. This is where the game probably had its first real miscalculation of how a game would go.

In reality, Michigan State gave Nebraska all it could handle for three quarters and change before the Huskers pulled away late for the 38-27 win over the Spartans. In our virtual simulation, Nebraska took a commanding 38-14 lead over MSU before they started climbing back into it. The final virtual score ended up being 47-30.

Now sitting at 4-1, Nebraska then embarked on what we deemed the “October Finish” in our season simulation. Three straight games against middle-of-the-pack Big Ten teams that could have Nebraska’s number just as much as Nebraska could have theirs.

The last game is fresh in all of our minds right now – Maryland.

We all know that the real-life Terrapins gave Nebraska more than it could handle, and it produced one of the worst performances we’ve seen from Raiola, who threw three picks in the game. Ultimately, the Big Red scored 10 unanswered 4th Quarter points en route to its thrilling 34-31 win over the Terps.

In the video game…no such drama. One interesting difference between reality and the game was that Nebraska entered its Maryland game ranked No. 23 in virtual College Park, MD. Last week, the real team didn’t have that national ranking, but now they do at No. 25 as they gear up for Minnesota tonight.

Regardless, EA Sports apparently didn’t think Nebraska would have any problem disposing of Maryland, as the Huskers dismantled the Terps to the tune of 48-16 to improve to 5-1 on the year. I think the “real” Nebraska fans would have been more than okay with that type of performance compared to the pulse-pounding finish they endured last week.

Nonetheless, the game is a perfect six-for-six in picking how Nebraska would start the season, with the lone loss being the heartbreaker at home to a Michigan team that I’m guessing both the virtual and real Huskers would like another crack at.

While it’s fun to think that the game saw this coming all along, if you’re a fan of the Big Red, you really hope it is way off with its second-half prediction. After giving Nebraska wins over Minnesota this week and Northwestern the following week. It has Nebraska go on a bit of a downward spiral, finishing the year losing three of its last four games including losses to USC, UCLA and Penn State.

Yes, the video game gives the Husker faithful the satisfaction of a win over Iowa, but an 8-4 season after a 7-1 start isn’t what any doctor would have ordered for NU. However, we’re still working with the “real life” 5-1 Huskers. Getting to 7-1 would be a dream come true for a fan base that didn’t see its seventh football win of the year until December in the Pinstripe Bowl.

Up next is Minnesota for a Friday night showdown in Minneapolis, and since the game kicks off in a matter of hours, why not give you a bit of a refresher on how the simulation has things going?

It has Nebraska shooting out to a 7-0 lead before Minnesota scores the next 10 points to take its first lead of the game. Nebraska then takes a 21-13 lead into the half before pulling away in the second half for a 38-13 win. It’s safe to say the real Huskers could rally around a final score like that.

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