Evaluating Where Iowa Is

Black Friday has brought nothing but frustration for the Huskers over the last decade.

Nebraska has won only once since Bo Pelini’s firing in 2014. However, the last seven matchups have all been decided by one score or less. Given how this series has played out recently, it’s hard to deny it’s a rivalry anymore. This is a significant game for both teams, regardless of the rivalry. Whoever wins will finish in the top half of the conference standings. A victory for the Huskers would end a good season, despite two tough losses. A loss would start a potentially long offseason in Lincoln.

Comparing offense and defensive advanced metrics between the two teams. | Arbitrary Analytics

In 2024, Iowa was forced to start its third quarterback, Jackson Stratton, a player who had actually switched to linebacker earlier that season before injuries forced him back under center. This season, Nebraska enters the game with its backup quarterback after Dylan Raiola’s injury. TJ Lateef has played well in his two starts. He looked great against a weak defense in UCLA, but struggled to find the same rhythm against Penn State’s defense with some day-two NFL draft picks.

Running total EPA for TJ Lateef and Mark Gronowski in 2025. | Arbitrary Analytics

Iowa’s defense may not have the talent of the Nittany Lions, but they are fundamentally sound, as Iowa defenses typically are. In terms of EPA allowed per pass play, they are comparable to the Nebraska pass defense. In traditional stats, they also rank just behind the Huskers in completion percentage allowed, passing yards allowed, and passing touchdowns allowed. Both pass defenses are among the top four in the Big Ten. The Hawkeyes provide a solid test for TJ Lateef.

Iowa proclaimed this summer that it finally had its quarterback. Mark Gronowski had a successful career at South Dakota State before transferring to play his final season in the Big Ten. As a passer, he hasn't been impressive. He ranks third in interception rate in the Big Ten and is tied for the lowest touchdown rate. His EPA on passing plays ranks fifth-worst in the conference. With gusts in the forecast, I don’t expect him to throw for over 100 yards against a stout Blackshirts secondary.

However, Gronowski might still overcome the Blackshirt defense. He is currently tied for 3rd in rushing touchdowns in the Big Ten this season. On designed rush attempts, he leads the Big Ten in total EPA. Last week against Michigan State was the first game of the season in which he didn’t score a rushing touchdown. Can the Huskers contain him to under 100 yards rushing? If they do, the Huskers will have a shot to beat Iowa. Gronowski might not have been what Iowa fans expected, but he could still be enough to help beat Nebraska.

Top Iowa rushers in 2025. Carry distribution shows how often a player rushed for a certain number of yards. | Arbitrary Analytics

The Huskers have also established an identity as a strong rushing team in the second half of 2025. The Huskers are led by their bell cow back Emmett Johnson. He has already become the first Big Ten player since Ohio State's Treyveon Henderson (2021) to tally 1,200+ rushing yards and 300+ receiving yards in a single season. He hasn’t had many home run plays this season, but he did break a career-long run last week against Penn State. TJ Lateef also provides the Huskers with help on the ground. He’s the only quarterback in the Big Ten to have a positive EPA on plays that are either sacks or scrambles.

Top Nebraska rushers in 2025. Carry distribution shows how often a player rushed for a certain number of yards. | Arbitrary Analytics

This game has often come down to special teams in recent years. The Huskers have made significant improvements in this area and now rank 7th in average starting field position. Kenneth Williams and Jacory Barney Jr. have been excellent this season in providing the Huskers with short fields to turn into points.

However, Iowa leads the nation in punt return average and punt return touchdowns with wide receiver Kaden Wetjen. In terms of average return, he ranks second in college football over the past 70 years, just behind UCLA’s Maurice Jones-Drew. If he averages 30 yards per return against Nebraska, Huskers fans could witness the single-season punt return average record fall.

I believe the Huskers perform well on senior day in front of their home crowd. However, I don’t think that will be enough to beat Iowa. Mark Gronowski is the perfect player to exploit Nebraska's defense weaknesses. Iowa can win this game by running the ball, and they know that. If Nebraska plays clean football, it’ll have a chance to win. Still, I expect them to make at least one mistake and for Iowa to secure another one-score victory against Nebraska.

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