Huskers Analytics Review: A Poor Performance but Signs of Promise

When I was growing up, I read many “choose-your-own” adventure books. If you’re not familiar with this style of book, the end of a chapter would give you a choice of what to do next, and you would go to a different part of the story based on your decision. The story of this football game is similar.

You could say that Michigan won because of only three plays. You could say Nebraska would’ve been blown out if it weren’t for an end-of-half Hail Mary. You could say that the Huskers let too many points slip through their fingers. Regardless of what narrative you pick, the Huskers took strides forward in this game, but they also have some glaring holes they need to improve.

The Bad

We can start telling the tale of this game with the bad. All three touchdowns the Blackshirts allowed came on drives of two or fewer plays. When things are that easy for the opponent, it’s going to be hard to win. This has been a concern for the Huskers throughout the entire season. Brendan Sorsby gashed the Huskers, scoring two touchdowns on the ground. Xai’Shaun Edwards was bottled up for Houston Christian before reversing field and scoring a touchdown. Michigan exploded for 177 highlight yards*. Many of these were on plays where the running back was untouched.

*highlight yards is how many yards rushing after the player gets five yards downfield. The impact of the offensive line is more important in the first five yards of the run, but past that, the running back accumulates “highlight yards”.

Win Probability graph versus Michigan. | Game on Paper

Over the last 30 years, teams with 7+ sacks are 564-50 (this was before Michigan and Oklahoma achieved this feat this week). Some of these were easy sacks by the Michigan defense, where Raiola had no time to throw. Others were caused by Raiola holding onto the ball too long. These plays are drive killers.

A key battle in this game was the Huskers’ early-down offense versus Michigan’s early-down defense. Both units were in the top 10 heading into this game. Michigan’s defense was dominant on these plays, holding the Huskers to -1.26 EPA per play on first and second down.

The Huskers also had another drive that got within the opponent's ten-yard line, but ended with less than a touchdown. This was the 6th drive of the season where Nebraska got this close but managed a field goal or less. Those drives could have led to 42 points for Nebraska, but instead, they only resulted in 3 points. If the Huskers converted all of those drives into touchdowns, they would likely be 4-0 and have the third-most points scored of any team in college football.

The Good

With that many negatives, what positives could Nebraska possibly have? The Huskers had a +6% win rate advantage over Michigan in this game. The last time these two teams played, Michigan won by 15%, one of the most significant margins of week 5 of the 2023 season. This is definitely a “moral victory” statistic, but this is also a good measure of progress. The Huskers executed their plays successfully at a higher rate than Michigan did.

Advanced stats versus Michigan. | Game on Paper

Every “explosive play” starts with a “successful play”. If the Huskers can maintain a high success rate, some of these will begin to become the game-changing, explosive plays that Michigan hit to beat the Huskers. More explosive plays will come if the Huskers can consistently generate successful ones.

The Huskers have something to build on the offensive side of the ball. A success rate of 46% isn’t a fluke and will allow the Huskers to have long drives that turn into points. The run defense is going to be an issue for the Huskers all year, given the players they lost to graduation and the transfer portal. The Huskers need to be able to slow the run just enough so that the opponent needs to pass on 50% of their plays. If they can do that, they can generate sacks and interceptions that win close games like they did against Cincinnati.

The players in the locker room need to choose the narrative they believe about this game. The bye week comes at a perfect time for the Blackshirts to make scheme adjustments to limit the damage opponents can do on the ground. The offense needs to believe that in can move the ball on anyone, even if they continue to struggle in the pass protection. While this loss is a concerning setback, the team continues to show growth.

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