Kenny Larabee, KLIN
Jeremy Pernell’s Mailbag: Help Wanted at Running Back and QB?
Just in case any Nebraska football fans needed a reminder of how wide the talent gap is between this team and the nation's elite, Michigan provided a definitive answer.
My email was flooded with concerns and critiques on Sunday, so I decided to pick three that I've edited for succinctness and give my two cents.
Even before injuries and the portal depleted the room, my biggest concern with recruiting was running back. Will they add more than just one in the offseason? - Mark (Fayetteville, N.C.)
What a difference a few months can make, right? Heading into spring, Nebraska had three running backs on the roster who had started games for them. They also had a guy in Ajay Allen, who the previous staff felt had the highest ceiling in the room.
Allen transferred to Miami in May and is the third-leading rusher through four games with the Hurricanes.
Even so, the staff was happy with what they had going into the season. They were confident with Gabe Ervin Jr. as their primary back and liked Rahmir Johnson's role in the offense as well. Anthony Grant might be the best all-around back on the roster, but his ball-security issues were a major factor in his playing time.
Fast-forward to the Louisiana Tech game and the makeup of the room had completely shifted. After suffering a devastating knee injury in 2021 that lingered into the 2022 season, Ervin sustained a hip injury against Northern Illinois that will cost him another season. It's safe to start speculating on his long-term health and effectiveness after another prominent injury.
Johnson suffered a shoulder injury in the same game that will cost him the rest of the 2023 season as well. As a fifth-year junior, he can return for a sixth season next year. Will he?
The running back room has done a complete 180. You now have Grant forced into the starting lineup. Yeah, he started last season, but he was your No. 3 back through the first three games for a reason. He already has two fumbles on 44 carries this season.
His backup heading into Friday's game against Illinois is Josh Fleeks, who has been on a milk carton all season. Yeah, that 74-yard touchdown run was impressive, albeit against Michigan's third-string defense, but that was his only carry of the season. I think that tells you what the staff thinks about Emmett Johnson.
Looking ahead, what does the room look like in 2024? Anthony Grant graduates and Rahmir's future is uncertain. What does Ervin look like coming off another major injury? That leaves Nebraska with Emmett Johnson and Kwinten Ives.
Nebraska has a commitment from Lancaster (Tex.) High School four-star tailback Kewan Lacy. Nearly 6-foot and around 200-pounds already, Lacy has all the traits to be a standout for the Huskers. He has the instincts, balance and elusiveness you want and he runs a sub-10.8 100 meters, so he's a homerun threat. Lacy is also a good receiver out of the backfield so he can be a three-down back.
Keeping Lacy in this class is imperative and it's far from a certainty. He was heavily pursued by teams in every Power Five conference and you saw that represented with the six teams who made up his finalists: Nebraska (Big Ten), Ole Miss (SEC), Miami (ACC), Arizona State (Pac-12), Baylor and TCU (Big 12).
Lacy was in Lincoln this past weekend and, despite the outcome, spoke about his excitement joining the Huskers after the visit. I can also assure you that teams haven't stopped recruiting him and won't until he signs in December.
For now, Lacy doesn't plan to enroll early, which doesn't bode well for an immediate impact out of the gate. Along with learning the playbook, the most important (and difficult) thing a running back needs to demonstrate is an aptitude for pass protection. If a coach can't trust you to be reliable in pass pro, you're not going to see the field much. Those two things will be the biggest indicators of how soon he gets on the field for Nebraska.
Had Ervin and Rahmir Johnson not sustained season-ending injuries, I don't think the staff would have considered adding more than just Lacy this offseason. Now?
We'll know a lot more after the season. By that time the staff will have a better idea of Johnson's future plans. They'll have a better read on Ervin's recovery and prognosis for next season. The staff really likes Kwinten Ives. They'll have a better gauge on how he's progressing and if he's someone they can count on for a heavier workload next season. If head coach Matt Rhule isn't happy with where this room stands heading into the offseason, adding someone through the transfer portal is a distinct possibility.
Even though the defense struggled against Michigan, I still love the Tony White hire. He's the only coach who didn't have a history with Matt Rhule too. Will Rhule see the benefits of hiring outside his circle and fire Marcus Satterfield? - Sean (Council Bluffs, Iowa)
Listen, I was critical of Satterfield's hire as offensive coordinator and he's shown me nothing to change that opinion. But I would be surprised if Rhule fires him after one season.
For any fan who has fantasies of Rhule going out and grabbing a guy like Tony Elliott after (if) he gets fired from Virginia, you're probably going to be let down.
As much as Rhule prides himself on being a developmental program, I can't see him firing his friend after one season. Right or wrong, I think he'll give him at least two years to show trajectory on that side of the ball.
What worries me is that Satterfield doesn't have a track record that would lend itself toward optimism that he'll eventually get it going.
Look, everyone knew this was going to be an overhaul and a complete program rebuild. But like you said, despite the poor outing against a superior Michigan team, I still have complete confidence in Tony White as defensive coordinator moving forward. What he's doing with the defense shines a brighter light on Satterfield and how inept the offense has been.
You can see what's happening on defense and can be secure in knowing things are going to get better and better on that side of the ball. They graduate Luke Reimer, Quinton Newsome and Omar Brown. They have fifth-year juniors like Ty Robinson and Nick Henrich who might decide to move on. And yet, I think most people are still confident the defense will be better next year. Can you say that on offense even though most of the starters are coming back?
The best offensive and defensive systems have continuity with core concepts that carry over year to year. You take those philosophies and recruit players who fit them. That way, like the old adage goes, you can reload each season and not have to rebuild. Again, that's apparent on defense. Offensively?
What are you taking from this year's offense into Year 2? This is a zone read offense with option elements that's heavily reliant on the QB run game. That's not what you recruited toward.
Nebraska has a commitment from four-star Daniel Kaelin as its class quarterback. He made the Elite 11 Finals this summer based on his arm talent. While he's not exactly a statue in the pocket, he'd be grossly misused in the current offense.
I can also tell you this isn't the offense Kaelin was told he would be playing in while he was being recruited. Satterfield compared him to his former South Carolina pupil Spencer Rattler, who would also be a fish out of water in this offense. So where's the long-term thinking?
Daniel Kaelin doesn't fit into this current scheme moving forward, and the bottom line is that Jeff Sims and Heinrich Haarberg don't fit into the sort of system that you'd put together for Kaelin.
So what does Satterfield do? Does he hand the reins over to Kaelin as a true freshman next season and implement the offense he actually wants to run? What would that mean for Haarberg's future at Nebraska?
Does he try to build off the momentum of this season (don't laugh too hard) and roll with Haarberg again next year? What does that do for Kaelin's development? You'd have him stagnating in a system he'll never fit in. Nothing about this offense is transferable to Kaelin's skillset.
It's Year 1 for this regime, so I have to assume they're doing what they can to win now, but that Kaelin is more in line with what they want their quarterback to look like. Their top target at the position for 2025, Alex Manske, also fits that mold.
Which brings me back to my point. Unless Satterfield runs it back with Haarberg next year, what are the building blocks you're taking into next season? You're basically going to be reshuffling the deck all over again. How can you expect any growth offensively next year?
The staff has to go back into the portal to get another quarterback for next season. Someone who fits what you want to do long-term on offense.
Jeff Sims isn't that guy. The system Satterfield came out of the offseason with reveals how little he trusts Sims to throw the ball. Even if Nebraska didn't have less talent at receiver than 80% of FBS schools, I still think Satterfield would try to feature a more effective passing game if he had the quarterbacks to do it. Maybe I'm giving Satterfield too much credit, though?
Some might have higher hopes for Haarberg to develop into that guy as a passer, but I'm very skeptical.
No, I think they need to take another swing in the portal this December. Hopefully you find a guy who can allow you to redshirt Kaelin and develop him in a system for at least a year behind the scenes before he's needed to take over the program. That's a tremendous amount of pressure for a first-year guy.
How far away is Nebraska from competing with a school like Michigan? - Mike (Omaha, Neb.)
If things go according to previous rebuilds under Rhule, I think the best-case scenario has Nebraska capable of beating any team in the Big Ten right around the time they're cutting the ribbon on a renovated Memorial Stadium in 2026.
The thing is, boy oh boy is this going to be a deep conference. Michigan, Ohio State and Penn State are currently ranked 2nd, 4th and 6th in the AP poll. Oof. The conference is adding No. 7 Washington, No. 8 Oregon and No. 9 USC next year too. That's quite a gauntlet. Two of those six teams probably make the CFB Playoff this year. The days of an undefeated Big Ten champion are likely gone.
Those six programs aren't going anywhere unless there's coaching turnover.
It seems inevitable that Harbaugh eventually finds his way back to the NFL. As a Bears fan, I'm hoping it's in Chicago next year coaching Caleb Williams. Ryan Day and Lincoln Riley are hot names on NFL radars every offseason too. James Franklin's name shows up on shortlists for prominent openings every year it seems.
The thing is, even if those schools have an opening, they'll be among the most desired and reputable jobs in the country. There won't be any shortage of elite candidates ready to take the mantle.
Matt Rhule spoke openly and, in my opinion, honestly about Michigan being the representation of what he's trying to build at Nebraska. He wants elite line play on both sides of the ball. He wants a fast, tough-nosed defense setting the tone for the team. He wants a power running offense that is balanced enough to also beat you through the air. Michigan checks those boxes in a big way, we saw that first hand Saturday.
Give Rhule time to recruit. Give him time to develop those guys. He's a great communicator. During his Monday press conferences with the media you can see the message, the culture and the attitude he's trying to instill in this team and the program moving forward. It's gonna take time.
I will circle back on Satterfield, though. At some point Rhule might have to make a difficult decision and start upgrading guys on his staff if he thinks they're impeding the ascension of the program. Go back to Harbaugh. He's done it several times with prominent coaches.
Just one example was following the 2020 season. Harbaugh fired defensive coordinator Don Brown, who he hired to replace DJ Durkin following the 2015 season when Durkin took the Maryland job. Brown put together dominant defenses in 2016, 2017 and 2018. His unit started to slip in 2019 before taking a big step back in his final year. Harbaugh did what had to be done.
I've heard the worries from a lot of Husker fans who remember Bo Pelini hiring relatively inexperienced coaches and coordinators. They remember Bill Callahan standing by Kevin Cosgrove. They wonder if Rhule will have the cutthroat persona to make the tough call if one is eventually needed.
