Just How Difficult is Nebraska’s Football Schedule?

Nebraska football fans know their 2026 Big Ten schedule offers no favors and little respite.

It’s brutal. It’s the Big Ten. With apologizes to that classic crooner Alice Cooper: Welcome to your nightmare.

College Football on SI recently did the math on 138 FBS teams. It recorded the 2025 win-loss percentage of each team, then each team was listed 1-to-138 based on their strength of schedule.

Nebraska’s strength of schedule? Fourth-most difficult in the nation.

Expected reaction from Nebraska fans? Yep, no kidding.

A rough road for the Huskers?

Nebraska’s 2026 opponents were 102-57 in 2025, a .642 winning percentage.

Three other Big Ten teams, based on their opponents’ 2025 results, are listed in the top six. Nebraska plays Ohio State. Defending national champion Indiana checks in at 11. Nebraska plays the Hoosiers, too.

• 2. Ohio State: 102-56, .646
• T-6. Michigan: 99-60, .623
• T-6 Northwestern: 99-60, .623
• 11. Indiana: 94-61, .601

Conclusion: Playing Big Ten football is rough business.

North Carolina coach Bill Belichick faces the nation's most difficult schedule in 2026 based on 2025 opponents' records. | Rodd Baxley/The Fayetteville Observer / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Bill Belichick’s North Carolina Tar Heels have the nation’s most difficult schedule based on their opponents going 103-55 (65.2 percent) in 2025.

The formula

College Football on SI used pure math. Math gives you an interesting overview at what the schedule might bring. But volatility rules college football because of the transfer portal. Rosters, and expectations, can change dramatically year over year.

There are limits what you can take away from an opponent’s 2025 record.

Nebraska’s opener against Ohio, which was 9-4, carries more weight compared with its second-week opponent Bowling Green, which was only 4-8. Since the Huskers play both, they both factor in.

Nebraska’s 2026 schedule and 2025 win-loss records

Here is Nebraska’s 2026 schedule, with each opponent’s 2025 regular-season record:

Sept. 5: Ohio, 9-4 (.692)
Sept. 12: Bowling Green, 4-8 (.333)
Sept. 19: North Dakota, 8-6 (.571)
Sept. 26: at Michigan State, 4-8 (.333)
Oct. 3: Maryland, 4-8 (.333)
Oct. 10: Indiana, 16-0 (1.000)
Oct. 17: at Oregon, 13-2 (.867)
Oct. 31: Washington, 9-4 (.692)
Nov. 6: at Illinois, 9-4 (.692)
Nov. 14: at Rutgers, 5-7 (.417)
Nov. 21: Ohio State, 12-2 (.857)
Nov. 27: at Iowa, 9-4 (.692)

Three Nebraska opponents finished in the top five in the final AP poll — No. 1 Indiana, No. 4 Oregon and No. 5 Ohio State.

Rough business, indeed.

Big Ten’s schedule formula

With 18 teams, the Big Ten employs what it calls the Flex Protect XVIII model, a fancy name for what the conference calls “a combination of protected opponents and rotating opponents for universities.”

Big Ten Conference uses a flex model to schedule its football schedule. | Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

With the up-and-down nature of football, and the consistent strength of some programs, teams are going to catch “good” schedules some years — as Nebraska did in 2025.

Not so in 2026.

What the 2026 schedule means

For coach Matt Rhule, 19-19 across his three seasons in Lincoln, this 2026 schedule isn’t exactly ideal timing. The 2025 schedule had the feel of a nine-win season. Not this year’s.

Nebraska’s 2025 schedule was tied for 91st-most difficult with its 2024 opponents going 76-76.

Nebraska coach Matt Rhule has a 19-19 record across three seasons and faces a potentially difficult schedule in 2026. — Nebraska coach Matt Rhule has a 19-19 record across three seasons in LIncoln and faces a potentially difficult schedule in 2026. | Kenny Larabee, KLIN

A portion of the fanbase is expects more from Rhule and his team. The past two 7-6 seasons were fine, but ultimately more is expected out of a program that has won five national titles.

There will be pressure on Rhule — there’s always pressure on the Nebraska head football coach — in 2026, even with an arduous schedule. Whether he gets a break because of the schedule’s difficulty will be determined by how the Huskers handle themselves against these national powers.

Are the Huskers competitive? Are they overmatched? Not sure many expect Nebraska to defeat Indiana, Ohio State or Oregon, but the expectation will be that the Huskers show they belong on the same field.

Like this: In 2024, Nebraska battled eventual national champion Ohio State in Columbus before losing, 21-17, the Buckeyes scoring the winning touchdown with only 6 minutes, 4 seconds to play. The game was highly competitive and could have gone either way.

Losses hurt but some are, in a sense, justifiable. Some you can live with. No one in Nebraska’s program would accept that some losses are justifiable. And that’s good. Fans want to see some serious fight from their team, no matter the odds.

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