Matt Rhule's Year 3 Success: Why Nebraska Football Could Break Out in 2025

Matt Rhule enters his third season at Nebraska with the eyes of the college football world on him—not just because he's leading one of the sport's most tradition-rich programs, but because history says this is the year things click for him.

At both Temple and Baylor, Rhule engineered dramatic turnarounds, and in each case, year three was the true breakthrough. A 10–4 record at Temple in 2015, and an 11–3 campaign at Baylor in 2019 bear that out.

Now, with two foundational years behind him in Lincoln, the question is simple: Why do Rhule-led programs always take off in year three—and can it happen again at Nebraska?

Jul 24, 2024; Indianapolis, IN, USA; Nebraska Cornhuskers head coach Matt Rhule speaks to the media during the Big 10 football media day at Lucas Oil Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Robert Goddin-Imagn Images | Robert Goddin-Imagn Images

To understand why Rhule’s teams explode in year three, you have to understand how he builds his programs. Rhule doesn’t patch holes—he rewires the program from the inside out. That process takes time.

In year one, his priority is tearing down old habits and instilling a new culture. At Temple, he inherited a team with little depth or identity. At Baylor, he took over a program rocked by scandals and sanctions. In both cases, year one was brutal: 2–10 at Temple, 1–11 at Baylor.

Year two is about structure. Rhule’s programs are defined by physicality, player development, and discipline. His offenses aren’t always flashy, but they emphasize toughness and precision. His defenses are known for gap integrity and relentless pursuit.

That level of execution doesn’t come quickly. At both Temple and Baylor, Rhule’s teams improved in year two, reaching bowl eligibility, but they were still learning how to win consistently.

What makes year three different is that all the foundational work finally starts to pay off. By then, most of the roster has been recruited by Rhule or at least developed under his system. Players know the expectations. Leaders emerge not because they’ve been appointed, but because they’ve endured the process.

At Temple, year three saw the defense—largely made up of juniors and seniors Rhule had mentored—rank among the best in the country. At Baylor, the offense began to hum under Charlie Brewer who was in his third season playing for Rhule. The defense, led by veterans like James Lynch and Bravvion Roy, became one of the toughest in the Big 12.

Nov 9, 2019; Fort Worth, TX, USA; Baylor Bears head coach Matt Rhule reacts after defeating the TCU Horned Frogs at Amon G. Carter Stadium. Baylor won 29-23 in triple overtime. | Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

Another crucial piece is that Rhule uses the first two years to identify exactly what works and what doesn’t, and he's not afraid to adapt.

At Temple, he pivoted from a pro-style offense to a more mobile, spread-based system once he realized that fit PJ Walker’s strengths.

At Baylor, he installed a scheme that leaned into the skills of his young quarterback and athletic receivers. By year three, the schemes aren’t just installed—they’re refined. The players aren’t just learning the system—they’re mastering it.

Teams often go through a gradual shift in mindset as they adapt to a new coach’s system. The first year is about learning and surviving. In the second, they begin to steady themselves and play with purpose. By the third year, that foundation hardens into confidence—they’re no longer reacting, they’re dictating.

That shift played out at Temple in 2015, when the program reached 10 wins and beat Penn State for the first time in over 70 years. It happened again at Baylor in 2019, when the team went from mid-tier to Big 12 title contender and a Sugar Bowl appearance.

Sep 5, 2015; Philadelphia, PA, USA; Temple Owls head coach Matt Rhule (left) shakes hands with Penn State Nittany Lions head coach James Franklin (right) following the completion of the game at Lincoln Financial Field. Temple defeated Penn State 27-10. Mandatory Credit: Matthew O'Haren-Imagn Images | Matthew O'Haren-Imagn Images

At Nebraska, Rhule has already laid much of the same groundwork. The Huskers went 5–7 in his first year—competitive but inconsistent. In year two, they went 7–6, won a bowl game, and saw flashes of the identity Rhule preaches. He now has a roster made up increasingly of his own recruits, including former five-star quarterback Dylan Raiola, who could be the most important catalyst yet.

The schedule in 2025 is daunting, but history says that this is exactly the moment when Rhule’s teams take a leap. The foundation is set. The systems are installed. The locker room is his.

If Rhule’s past is any guide, Nebraska’s rebuild might be complete this year.

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