Nebraska's Struggles After Reaching the 5-Win Mark

For the fifth time in their last 13 games, the Huskers entered a game with five wins and a chance to secure bowl eligibility but failed to do so.

In 2024, Nebraska needed five attempts to improve from 5-1 to 6-5 and secure its first bowl berth since 2016. Last season was different. The Huskers faced playoff teams in games 7 and 8, before losing a game they should’ve won against UCLA. Nebraska was favored over Minnesota, but after a disappointing loss, the Huskers’ five-win struggles are on full display again.

Bowl Bids Blocked

Between the Bob Devaney and Bo Pelini eras, the Huskers won 75% of their games when they entered with five wins. This was the 8th-best mark in college football among teams with at least 20 games played during that period. However, since the Huskers hired Mike Riley, they’ve dropped to just 3-12 in games needed to secure bowl eligibility. This is the 4th-worst record in college football since 2015. Only UL Monroe, Colorado, and Florida Atlantic have worse records entering the game with five wins than the Huskers.

When considering only the Matt Rhule era, the numbers are even worse for Nebraska. Rhule is 1-10 when trying to secure bowl eligibility. Louisiana Monroe is the only team with fewer wins (on at least five games played) since 2023, with a record of 0-6. Rhule’s fellow coaching carousel class member, Luke Fickell, has the second-worst record when trying to qualify for a bowl game among the Power Four conference members, with a 1-9 record since taking over in Madison.

Huskers Were Dominant Early

Getting wins 1-5 was traditionally even easier for the Huskers than the elusive #6. The Huskers were an early-season powerhouse for five decades between Devaney and Pelini. Nebraska posted a 53-6 record after its first win of the season under those five coaches. During the same 53 seasons, Ohio State had an identical 53-6 record in games where it entered with zero wins. Nebraska’s record before its first win (53-7) ranked fourth in college football for most wins before its first victory, while it won over 85% (53-9) of its games when it had two prior wins, which was the 8th best in college football.

Wins entering the game	Record 1962-2014	Record 2015-2025
0	53-7	11-13
1	53-6	11-8
2	53-9	11-7
3	53-14	9-18
4	53-13	6-9
5	51-17	3-12
6	49-10	2-1
7	48-12	1-2
8	47-14	1-0
9	26-24	0-2
10	12-12	0-0
11	7-4	0-0
12	3-1	0-0

The early-season dominance changed immediately after Pelini. The Huskers lost Mike Riley's first game on a BYU Hail Mary. They won the following week, and Nebraska also won its next two openers under Riley, giving the team a 3-1 record with no wins under Riley. These Huskers looked even worse while seeking their first win under Frost. It took him 7 attempts before he finally won a game as a Husker head coach. He also lost the opening game in three other seasons as the Husker head coach. Since 2015, the Huskers are just 11-13 when trying to win their first game of the season.

Northwestern also enters this game looking for bowl eligibility. The Wildcats are 6-5 when seeking bowl eligibility since the 2015 season. Northwestern has been a thorn in the Huskers’ side since they joined the Big Ten. One of these programs will get its crucial sixth win of the season. The Huskers have put some narratives behind them this season. Saturday will tell us whether they can change another one.

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