What If: The 1978 College Football Season

Tom Osborne's success in close games opened the door for greatness

Eric Hess | Mar 11, 2025

Nebraska Cornhuskers head coach Tom Osborne on the sidelines. / Malcolm Emmons-Imagn Images

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In college football, games and legacies can be decided by a matter of inches.

Throughout much of college football history, even a single loss could derail a team’s hopes for a national championship. A tipped pass, a bad call, or an unlucky ball bounce can flip a game's outcome in one-score games.

Inspired by the Nebraska Cornhuskers' historic trend of losing so many close games over the last decade, I decided to dive into college football history to see how different the sport might look if the outcome of every one-score game was flipped season by season.

Welcome to What If: The 1978 College Football Season.

Other What If seasons: 1973, 1974, 1975, 1976, 1977

What Did Happen

The 1978 season was the first to look like modern college football. Conference champions were committed to certain bowl games. Division I split into two subdivisions, I-A and I-AA, and the Pac-10 was formed when Arizona and Arizona State joined the Pac-8. Alabama opened the season No. 1 overall, looking to avenge their loss to a top-10 Nebraska team that kept them away from a title the year prior. The Tide won easily at Legion Field in Birmingham.

Alabama wouldn’t be able to keep its top ranking for long. The Crimson Tide lost to USC in the third game of the season, with Oklahoma claiming the top spot. The Sooners would only hold the top spot for six weeks before losing to Tom Osborne’s Nebraska Cornhuskers; this game gave Nebraska a guaranteed share of the Big Eight title and then a head-to-head victory over Oklahoma for the automatic Orange Bowl berth.

Penn State would take over as No. 1 for the remainder of the regular season. As the lone unbeaten team, the Nittany Lions had a great chance to win a title. An Iron Bowl victory secured the SEC title for Alabama, which set up a true national championship game between the top two teams in the country. The Game decided the Big Ten's Rose Bowl representative, which Schembechler and the Wolverines captured.

Tom Osborne Almost Breaks Through

After Nebraska’s victory against Oklahoma, the Orange Bowl looked like a national championship matchup between Nebraska and Penn State. The Husker’s final-week loss knocked them out of the title hunt, which led Paterno’s squad to accept a Sugar Bowl invite to play for the title against Alabama. Desperate for a suitable replacement, Orange Bowl officials invited Nebraska’s Big Eight rival in Oklahoma to play in the bowl game. It would be the second bowl to match up conference opponents following the 1960 Sugar Bowl between LSU and Mississippi.

In a narrow Heisman vote, Oklahoma running back Billy Sims brought home the trophy, becoming the Sooners’ third Heisman winner. His 1,762 rushing yards set the Big Eight record. This season's voting was close as Penn State quarterback Chuck Fusina finished just 77 points behind Sims and received twelve more first-place votes. Sims dominated in second place voting to put him ahead of Fusina.

Unbeaten Teams: Penn State (11-0)

The 1979 Cotton Bowl would become known as the Chicken Soup Game. Notre Dame quarterback Joe Montana suffered from hypothermia during the game, and he stayed in the locker room during the third quarter eating chicken soup to try to warm his body. The Comeback Kid led a fantastic comeback to beat Houston after the Irish trailed 34-12 in the third. In Miami, Oklahoma got its revenge on the Huskers. Either through Sooner magic or by spying on Huskers’ practices, Oklahoma knew Nebraska’s new plays and audibles for the game, which helped them win a close matchup.

Bowl	Winner	Loser
Cotton Bowl	Notre Dame (8-3) 35	Houston (9-2) 34
Rose Bowl	USC (10-1) 17	Michigan (10-1) 10
Sugar Bowl	Alabama (10-1) 14	Penn State (11-0) 7
Orange Bowl	Oklahoma (10-1) 31	Nebraska (9-2) 24

USC, which had beaten Alabama earlier in the year, entered the Rose Bowl with title aspirations. Helped by a phantom touchdown, where USC running back Charles White fumbled before crossing the goal line, USC would win the Rose Bowl. Bear Bryant had to convince Joe Paterno to accept a Sugar Bowl bid over the Orange Bowl. Once Paterno did, the matchup was guaranteed to result in at least a share of a national championship for the winner.

After Bryant’s Tide felt like they were snubbed of the 1977 title, a defeat of the No. 1 team in the nation ensured that they would get at least a share of the title. However, USC and Oklahoma were also bowl winners with just one loss. Ultimately, the AP awarded their title to Alabama, and the coaches awarded theirs to USC, who beat Alabama that season. Oklahoma, who Tom Osborne called the best team in the nation, finished third in both polls.

What Almost Happened

The Oregon Ducks (previously the Webfoots) are the biggest winner of the 1978 What If, improving six games from 2-9 to 8-3. The Richmond Spiders also had a six-game improvement as an independent team. Georgia is the biggest loser of 1978, dropping from 9-1-1 to 4-6-1. However, the most substantial impact is to USC which loses four wins. In this scenario, the Trojans would miss the postseason entirely rather than winning a title. Billy Sims still takes home the Heisman hardware as Oklahoma, Alabama, and Michigan all slide one game to 9-2, and no other program leaps ahead of the Sooners.

The Michigan State Spartans win the Big Ten with a 10-1 record and 8-0 in conference play. However, the Spartans were on bowl probation in 1978 so their in-state rivals head to the Rose Bowl. In our scenario, Bill Walsh’s Stanford Cardinal is the Pac-10 champion.

Alabama still claims the SEC crown and the associated Sugar Bowl berth. Instead of the 1-2 matchup Bear Bryant desired, the Tide get their pick of a host of 8-3 teams. Joe Montana’s Fighting Irish get the nod by Bear for the third major bowl matchup between the two programs in six seasons. Oklahoma flips its loss to Nebraska, earning the automatic bid to the Orange Bowl, where it takes on Bobby Bowden’s up-and-coming Florida State Seminoles. Arkansas is now the Southwest Conference champions. Like the Sugar Bowl, the Cotton Bowl wants to pick a big program out of the remaining teams and selects Big Eight runner-up Nebraska.

Unbeaten Teams: None

The 1978 Huskers led with offense, scoring 35 points per game, ranking third in the nation, while giving up 15.4, which ranked 31st. Lou Holtz Razorbacks were more balanced, ranking 11th and 13th, respectively. The Cotton Bowl would be a toss-up. In our scenario, Nebraska is just a few weeks after its seventh straight loss to Oklahoma. Would this impact the psyche of the team? I give a slight edge to Nebraska in this matchup.

Bowl	Winner	Loser
Cotton Bowl	Nebraska (8-3)	Arkansas (9-2)
Rose Bowl	Michigan (9-2)	Stanford (9-2)
Sugar Bowl	Alabama (9-2)	Notre Dame (8-3)
Orange Bowl	Oklahoma (9-2)	Florida State (9-2)

Athletic director Bear Bryant did head coach Bear Bryant no favors with the schedule in 1978. In this scenario, they lose both matchups against their Pac-10 opponents. However, they still boast a top-10 offense and top-25 defense, which would’ve been enough to spoil Joe Montana’s final game. While Florida State and Stanford have great seasons, Oklahoma was the nation's best offense and Michigan's best defense in 1978. I expect that both blue-bloods win their games easily.

This would create a fascinating dilemma for voters. Michigan State would’ve been the nation's only one-loss power conference team. Would the voters have crowned them champions while on probation like the AP did with Oklahoma in 1974? Sparty doesn’t have the pedigree of the Sooners, so I don’t think they’d benefit from the doubt like OU did. Ultimately, I think Oklahoma and Alabama split the title.

Tom Osborne’s Decision with the Colorado Buffaloes

One of the biggest What Ifs in college football history is “What if Tom Osborne left Nebraska?” Tom Osborne took a surprise visit to Boulder in 1978. Osborne’s Huskers had been one of the best teams at winning one-score games with a five-game advantage over his first six years. Would a record of 46-19-2 (versus his actual 51-14-2) be enough for him to consider a voluntary move before Nebraska might decide for him?

The Miami sun wouldn't have been the cause of Osborne's warm seat if the What If series was a reality. A regent told Osborne he would’ve been fired if he lost the 1976 Bluebonnet Bowl. In our hypothetical scenario, Nebraska only makes it to two major bowl games rather than three. When Frank Solich was fired in 2003, his regular-season winning percentage was 77.4%. Osborne only won 76.1% of his regular-season games when he visited Boulder. A few more losses of six years would likely have pushed both Osborne and the school to decide a mutual parting of ways was in both parties' best interest in our What If universe.

A few prominent names jump out for who could've replaced Osborne. Nebraska brass could’ve tried to get up-and-coming coach Bobby Bowden, who had success with a dreadful Florida State program. However, I think it would be unlikely that he would have ever left the South, having grown up in Alabama. A Monte Kiffin homecoming would’ve been another potential move for the Huskers, but I don’t expect he’d have the success that Osborne managed over the next 20 years. Reality was the best option for both Nebraska and Osborne after 1978.

The pressure on Tom Osborne and Dan Devine at Notre Dame highlights the fine line between greatness and forgotten coaches in this sport. Both coaches did well in their early years, but the success of their predecessors created a unique challenge. It would take Osborne 16 more seasons before he finally broke through for a title. His ability to win tight games early in his career allowed him to coach long enough to build one of the greatest dynasties in the history of the sport.

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Published Mar 11, 2025

ERIC HESS