How Notre Dame’s Key Matchups Could Define the 2025-26 Playoff Race

There will be several mega-matchups regarding the CFP outlook on Notre Dame's 2025 slate

Notre Dame head coach Marcus Freeman celebrates a touchdown scored during the first round of the College Football Playoff between Notre Dame and Indiana. | Michael Clubb/South Bend Tribune / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Notre Dame will enter the 2025 season with sky-high expectations after finishing last year in the national championship game. The starting quarterback and some other stars and standouts need replaced, but the formula is certainly there for what should be another memorable campaign for Marcus Freeman and company.

Which games will Notre Dame play in this fall though that will have the biggest impact on the College Football Playoff? That answer isn't just regarding Notre Dame's chances at the postseason tournament, but the opponent as well.

Here are the five biggest:

5. USC at Notre Dame: October 18, 2025

Oct 14, 2023; South Bend, Indiana, USA; USC Trojans quarterback Caleb Williams (13) attempts to tackle Notre Dame Fighting Irish safety Xavier Watts (0) after Watts intercepted a pass in the first quarter at Notre Dame Stadium. | Matt Cashore-Imagn Images

I don't think it will happen but Missouri State, Georgia Southern, Purdue, Michigan State, Illinois, and Michigan before a trip to South Bend, USC could be undefeated entering that game. I wouldn't bet on, but the schedule is friendly for a team that manage to lose a bunch of close games last year. How fitting would it be for the likely final meeting between schools for the forseeable future to have playoff implications for both?

4. Navy at Notre Dame: November 8, 2025

Nov 6, 2021; South Bend, Indiana, USA; Notre Dame Fighting Irish running back Logan Diggs (22) runs the ball against Navy Midshipmen safety Rayuan Lane (18) in the fourth quarter at Notre Dame Stadium. | Matt Cashore-Imagn Images

Notre Dame has more than handled Navy in recent years, beating the Midshipmen by a combined score of 93-17 the last two seasons. Navy returns almost its entire starting lineup from a team that went 10-3 and beat Oklahoma in a bowl game last year. The chances this one means something for both regarding the College Football Playoff is high.

3. Boise State at Notre Dame: October 4, 2025

Dec 31, 2024; Glendale, AZ, USA; Boise State Broncos offensive lineman Mason Randolph (63) reacts after the Fiesta Bowl at State Farm Stadium. | Joe Camporeale-Imagn Images

Boise State is coming off a playoff appearance last year and would like nothing more than to get back. They enter the season as the favorite to represent the Group of Five and playing a road game close (like it did last year at Oregon) or perhaps even winning, would only strengthen the Broncos case.

2. Texas A&M at Notre Dame: September 13, 2025:

Aug 31, 2024; College Station, Texas, USA; Notre Dame Fighting Irish running back Jeremiyah Love (4) breaks free and runs the ball into the end zone for a touchdown in the fourth quarter against the Texas A&M Aggies at Kyle Field. | Maria Lysaker-Imagn Images

The Texas A&M game was difficult enough for Notre Dame a year ago and the Aggies should be better in 2025. We've of course heard that before, but with landmines all over both team's schedules this fall, the early-season showdown will be vitally important for both in terms of their playoff outlook.

1. Notre Dame at Miami: August 31, 2025:

Nov 11, 2017; Miami Gardens, FL, USA; Miami Hurricanes quarterback DeeJay Dallas (13) dives into the end zone to score a touchdown against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish during the second half at Hard Rock Stadium. Images | Jasen Vinlove-Imagn Images

The media seemingly tried talking Miami into being "back" since the second Mario Cristobal was hired. They certainly haven't been yet, but 2025 should be a breakout year for a team that purposely got out of its 2024 contest in South Bend. Carson Beck will lead the Hurricanes who desperately need a big-time victory, while a Notre Dame loss would back the Irish into an early season corner. The loser of this game will be pushing a boulder up hill the final 11 games of the regular season while the winner's path will have wiggle room to work with - just like Notre Dame did after beating Texas A&M last August 31st.

Nick Shepkowski's Quick Take:

Don't confuse it for a second, Notre Dame's season is a failure if its not playing in the quarterfinals at worst again this year. That said, each of the above games will feature opponents that should enter while holding playoff expectations. Even if they're underdogs, they're that much more hungry of dogs when you throw it all together and mix in playing Notre Dame.

And as a lifelong Notre Dame fan, I wouldn't want that schedule to look any other way.