Notre Dame’s Championship Odds Examined by Computer Model

Notre Dame saw its game chances go down against some surprising teams this past week, but go up against a key one

Notre Dame quarterback CJ Carr (13) waits to call the snap during the first half of a NCAA football game against Wisconsin at Lambeau Field on Sunday, Sept. 6, 2026, in Green Bay, WI. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

Notre Dame moved to 2-0 after routing Rice this past weekend, 52-0. It now turns the page to Michigan State and a Spartans program that is 2-0, but is very much in the early days of the Pat Fitzgerald rebuild.

What do the ESPN computers have to say about Notre Dame's chances this week? And how did they change compared to a week ago?

Here's a look at the latest.

ESPN FPI Projects Notre Dame vs Michigan State Outcome

ESPN's weekly update to the FPI gives Notre Dame a 96.3% chance of beating Michigan State this weekend. What's at least a little surprising is that it's actually down from a week ago, when Notre Dame was given a 96.8% chance to win this same game.

Game week

Battle for the Megaphone Trophy

🆚 Michigan State
📍 South Bend, Indiana
📆 Saturday, Sept. 19
⏰ 7:30 PM ET
📺 NBC | Peacock#GoIrish☘️ | @tirerack pic.twitter.com/LsUKQEwqsZ

— Notre Dame Football (@NDFootball) September 14, 2026

Michigan State hasn't made a trip to Notre Dame Stadium since 2016, but since the end of the Lou Holtz era, has been a pain in the side of the Fighting Irish. It also brings with it a head coach in Pat Fitzgerald that knows a thing or two about upsetting Notre Dame, doing so as a player at Northwestern in 1995 and again as a head coach there in 2014.

ESPN FPI Projects Remainder of Notre Dame Season

For comparison, here is how FPI projects Notre Dame's chances in the remainder of its 10 games this season.

vs. Michigan State: 96.3% (down 0.5% from last week)
at Purdue: 96.4% (down 0.1%)
at North Carolina: 90.5% (up 1.0%)
vs. Stanford: 98.9% (up 0.1%)
at BYU: 75.5% (down 0.8%)
vs. Navy: 98.2% (up 1.8%)
vs. Miami: 65.1% (up 1.8%)
at Boston College: 98.6% (up 0.1%)
vs. SMU: 88.7% (down 0.9%)
at Syracuse: 95.2% (up 2.2%)

It seems like every national podcast I turn on, all I hear about is how Miami is ungodly and unbeatable because they routed Florida A&M.

It turns out that must not have been quite as impressive to the computers because Notre Dame's chances of winning its biggest game of the regular season actually went up this week.

Otherwise it's fairly standard across the board as the expectation for this team is clearly to still go 11-1 at very worst this regular season.

FPI also gives Notre Dame the following chances for the 2026 season:

Projected record: 10.9-1.1 (up from 10.8-1.2 last week)
Make the College Football Playoff: 80% (up from 76.7%)
Make National Championship Game: 22.1% (up from 20.0%)
Win National Championship: 11.8% (up from 10.6%)

Notre Dame's championship chances still trail only Texas and Ohio State following those two playing in an epic showdown this past weekend.

Nick Shepkowski's Thoughts

I know these are made to eliminate the whole "eye test" thing but my ego only approves of it if it matches what I think I'm seeing.

What I'm seeing with Oregon is a team that has major line issues and the formula now calling for the Ducks to lose four games reflects that.

What I didn't see Saturday was Texas or Ohio State seeming like a world beater compared to the rest of their respective conferences, which makes me a bit curious about how they're both so far and away seen as the nation's top two teams.

If I had to place a bet today I'd be far more likely to say that neither win their respective conference than both, and that with their schedules ahead, that I'm not convinced either, even Texas after its huge win, is likely to secure a First Round bye in the postseason.

As for Notre Dame, just keep taking care of business and figure out how to make something explosive happen in the running game preferably sooner than later, and all will be fine.