Computer Formula Drops Notre Dame's Championship Chances After Week 1

Notre Dame opens the official home portion of its 2026 schedule on Saturday when it welcomes Rice to Notre Dame Stadium.

It's the first meeting between programs since the 2014 opener that saw Notre Dame rout the Owls, 48-17.

After struggling much of the first half, Notre Dame pulled away Sunday night to rout Wisconsin, 41-13. What's in store with Rice coming to town this weekend?

The logical guess would be more of the same, but what do the computers have to say?

ESPN operates the Football Power Index and gave Notre Dame a 94.3% chance of beating Wisconsin last week, which it did going away. What does it have to say about Rice's chances of pulling off what would be a massive upset?

ESPN FPI Projects Notre Dame vs Rice Outcome

ESPN's update to the FPI now gives Notre Dame a 99.0% chance of beating Rice this weekend. That's up from the 96.8% chance it gave Notre Dame of winning this same game a week ago.

Game week

🆚 Rice
📍 South Bend, Indiana
📆 Saturday, Sept. 12
⏰ 3:30 PM ET
📺 NBC | Peacock#GoIrish☘️ | @tirerack pic.twitter.com/5lIxXBjov1
— Notre Dame Football (@NDFootball) September 7, 2026

Rice brings a unique offense to Notre Dame Stadium which will take some extra preparation this week, but in terms of talent differential, this is as big of gap as there is between Notre Dame and any opponent on its schedule this season, including Navy.

ESPN FPI Projects Remainder of Notre Dame Season

For comparison, here is how FPI projects Notre Dame's chances in the remainder of its 11 games this season.

vs. Rice: 99.0% (up 2.2% from last week)
vs. Michigan State: 96.8% (same)
at Purdue: 96.5% (up 0.9%)
at North Carolina: 89.5% (up 0.9%)
vs. Stanford: 98.8% (up 0.9%)
at BYU: 76.3% (up 0.3%)
vs. Navy: 96.4% (up 0.4%)
vs. Miami: 63.3% (down 6.9%)
at Boston College: 98.5% (up 0.6%)
vs. SMU: 89.6% (up 0.1%)
at Syracuse: 93.0% (up 0.8%)

The changes to most games are minimal besides Miami. The Hurricanes laying it on thick at Stanford shifted the computers to backing the Hurricanes a bit more after Week 1, as it moved the squad up from No. 7 to No. 4 in its rankings.

If you've followed computer formulas at all over the course of seasons, this happens when there are blowouts often, especially when total yards in games are dominated.

I am curious how Brauntae Johnson's injury for Notre Dame is factored into this formula, because that will have a minimal impact against Rice, but will be huge in slowing down Miami's passing game.

That's why this formula was in love with USC in 2023 when it was blowing out nobodies, and it kept increasing USC's chances of beating Notre Dame until that game was actually played and the exact opposite occurred.

FPI also gives Notre Dame the following chances for the 2026 season:

Projected record: 10.8-1.2 (up from 10.7-1.3 last week)
Make the College Football Playoff: 76.7% (up from 74.5%)
Make National Championship Game: 20.0% (down from 20.5%)
Win National Championship: 10.6% (down from 11.1%)

Notre Dame trails only Texas (17.8) and Ohio State (17.6%) in having the best chances to win it all. The numbers will be very interesting to look at a week from now after those two face off in Austin and one has a loss to its resume.

Nick Shepkowski's Thoughts

Computer formulas this early in the season are based a ton on speculation, not a whole lot on what actually happened.

Notre Dame got through a compelling game away from its home stadium by covering the spread and saw its national championship chances actually decrease, because Miami blew out an awful Stanford team.

Trusted each other and went to work.#GoIrish☘️ | @MyCreditUnion1 pic.twitter.com/Cy4YuAoHxr
— Notre Dame Football (@NDFootball) September 8, 2026

I don't think Rice has any sort of shot in upsetting Notre Dame this week, but will be honest, I thought North Carolina's defensive showing against TCU would have won it a bit more points from the system than it did.

Ultimately, Notre Dame's style of play isn't going to usually light up many formulas. Despite the score being close at halftime, Notre Dame dominated Wisconsin and won going away. It might not have the same kind of playmakers that light up the stat sheet, but its got difference makers as well. However, Anthonie Knapp isn't factoring into a formula the same way some of Miami's skill guys are.

Miami is the biggest test on Notre Dame's schedule this season as we've known for some time. Miami blasting Stanford in Week 1 did nothing to change that for me, or to make me think hell is suddenly coming to breakfast for the Irish.

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