Notre Dame's Updated ESPN FPI Odds After Wild College Football Weekend

The bye week for Notre Dame featured a little bit of good news and a little bit of bad news.

The good was that Week 1 opponent Wisconsin put it on USC in Madison, routing the Trojans 24-7 to move to 5-2. The win helped boost Wisconsin's standing in the Big Ten and improved Notre Dame's strength of schedule, all while an old rival was embarrassed on national TV.

The bad happened in Orlando, where No. 2 BYU was stunned in overtime by previously 3-3 UCF. The loss does no favors to Notre Dame's strength of schedule, as the loss to BYU doesn't carry the same weight on a resume as losing to the No. 2 team in the nation did entering the weekend.

ESPN FPI updated its numbers following the busy weekend, and despite BYU falling, Notre Dame's chances at making the playoff still remain very strong.

Here's a look at the latest numbers and what they say about Notre Dame's outcomes the rest of the season.

ESPN FPI's Updated Notre Dame Game Odds

Notre Dame vs Navy (Foxborough, Mass.) - Oct. 31

Notre Dame's chances of victory per FPI: 98.7%

Nick Shepkowski's Quick Thought: Notre Dame has owned Navy in recent years, outscoring the Midshipmen 142-27 combined over the last three seasons. This is the worst of all those Navy teams, and I wouldn't expect Saturday to be much different.

Notre Dame vs Miami - Nov. 7

Notre Dame's chances of victory per FPI: 59.4%

Nick Shepkowski's Quick Thought: It will be the biggest game in Notre Dame Stadium since at least 2005, and perhaps all the way back to the No. 1 vs. No. 2 showdown against Florida State in 1993. This will be a legacy game for the Notre Dame coaching staff and every upperclassman that plays in it.

Notre Dame vs Boston College - Nov. 14

Notre Dame's chances of victory per FPI: 97.6%

Nick Shepkowski's Quick Thought: Going into the year I thought it was more likely that Boston College would have fired Bill O'Brien by now than been chasing bowl eligibility. Notre Dame is still far more talented, but this is a better Boston College team that has won four of its last six.

Notre Dame vs SMU - Nov. 21

Notre Dame's chances of victory per FPI: 90.3%

Nick Shepkowski's Quick Thought: If SMU can get through its next three games unscathed (it has a trip to No. 14 Wake Forest on Nov. 14), this could very possibly be a CFP elimination game in South Bend.

Notre Dame at Syracuse - Nov. 28

Notre Dame's chances of victory per FPI: 94.9%

Nick Shepkowski's Quick Thought: For whatever its worth, Syracuse did just go into Chapel Hill and beat North Carolina, who made it a game late into the third quarter against Notre Dame earlier this year.

ESPN FPI's Updated Notre Dame Playoff Odds

Add all the numbers above together and FPI gives Notre Dame a 47.8% chance to win out. However, it gives the Fighting Irish an 82.4% chance to make the College Football Playoff.

I'll have more on that later, here's the other numbers FPI gives Notre Dame down the stretch:

Projected Final Record: 10.4-1.6
82.4% chance to make CFP
24.5% chance to make National Championship Game
14.0% chance to win National Championship Game (Trail only Ohio State and Miami)

Nick Shepkowski's Quick Thoughts

The biggest remaining game for Notre Dame is clearly Miami, and that was known long before the regular season kicked off. Essentially, win out and you're in, very possibly with a First Round bye.

Lose, which the formula gives Notre Dame a 52.2% chance of doing, and I assume the Irish are out. If it didn't make it last year at 10-2, will it this year? I would have to believe that both BYU and Wisconsin would have to combine for one, or maybe just two more losses the rest of the regular season if Notre Dame is to make the CFP with two losses.

To make the math all a whole lot easier, Notre Dame could just win out and make the debate instead be about how high of a seed it can land.

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