Bold Predictions For The Notre Dame Defense In 2020

Notre Dame is a week away from kicking off the 2020 football season! With the campaign right around the corner it’s time to make some bold predictions about the Irish defense. Below are the four boldest predictions I can make about the Irish defense. It is a combination of being realistic, but also looking at things from a “best case” scenario, which means things really click.

1. MOST POINTS ALLOWED PER GAME SINCE 2016

Notre Dame’s scoring defense was pretty abysmal from 2014 to 2016, with the Irish giving up between 24.1 and 29.2 points per game. The arrival of Mike Elko and Clark Lea resulted in immediate improvement, and the Irish gave up 21.5 points per game in 2017, 18.2 points in 2018 and 17.9 points last season.

Continuing that trend will be a challenge in 2020 for a number of reasons, which is why I predict Notre Dame will have its worst points per game average since the post-2016 makeover.

This prediction is based on believing the 2020 schedule will have the best scoring offenses that Notre Dame has faced in recent seasons. Four of Notre Dame’s opponents averaged over 30 points per game last season, and I am projecting improvements from Boston College, Florida State, Duke and Pittsburgh as well. Notre Dame also doesn’t have a Bowling Green, New Mexico, Ball State or Miami (Ohio) on the schedule, and the Irish will face more Power 5 opponents than it has during the recent stretch of great defensive play, at least in the regular season.

I’m also more concerned about the secondary than I have been in the last two seasons, and there are questions about where the pass rush will come from. All of this adds up to Notre Dame still being pretty good on defense this season, but it won’t show up from a points per game allowed standpoint as much as it has in recent seasons.

2. FEWEST RUSHING YARDS ALLOWED SINCE 2012

Notre Dame’s run defense has been the one area where the unit struggled the most the last few seasons, but I expect this to be the team’s best run defense since 2012, from both a statistical and practical standpoint.

There are a number of reasons for this, but from a purely statistical standpoint it begins by not having Navy on the schedule. Notre Dame held Navy 79 yards below its season average in 2019 but still gave up 281 rushing yards. They held Navy 74 yards below their season average in 2017 and still gave up 277 yards.

Take Navy off the stat sheet and Notre Dame would have dropped its average by 10.8, 12.7 and 10.2 yards per game over the last three years.

There’s more to it than just taking Navy off the schedule. There are still plenty of good rushing teams on the 2020 docket (Clemson, Louisville, Boson College), but the overall depth isn’t as good. I also believe the Irish run defense will improve thanks to the return of the entire interior depth chart, strong run defenders on the edge and a talented group of linebackers.

3. AT LEAST 4 DEFENDERS WITH 10+ TACKLES FOR LOSS

If I’m correct about bold prediction number two than bold prediction number three will happen, but I highly doubt I’m only right on one of them, so if I’m wrong on prediction number two then number three likely won’t happen.

From 2010 to 2017, Notre Dame had no more than two defenders rack up at least 10 tackles for loss, and twice (2013, 2014) they didn’t have a single defender reach that mark. The last two seasons, Notre Dame had three players with at least 10 tackles for loss, and I predict the 2020 season will be the program’s best of the Brian Kelly era.

Linebacker Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah led the defense with 13.5 tackles for loss last season, and the rover position has produced at least 10 tackles for loss in two of the three seasons since Lea arrived. Odds are good he’ll reach double figures again in 2020, assuming he can stay healthy.

I also predict breakouts from two defensive linemen that will also reach double figures; defensive end Adetokunbo Ogundeji and defensive tackle Jayson Ademilola. Ogundeji had 5.5 tackles for loss in the final three games of the 2019 and finished the season with seven stops behind the line despite splitting reps with Khalid Kareem. If Ogundeji keeps the same TFL rate in 2020 that he had in 2019, and if he plays at least 500 snaps (Kareem played 624 and 561 the last two seasons) he’ll reach double digits.

Ademilola has been Notre Dame’s best run-stop interior defender the last two seasons, and in 2020 I anticipate he’ll finally start getting more reps. If that happens I think a breakout season will happen, and that will result in him reaching double figures in tackles for loss.

After that I’m looking at players like Drew White, Daelin Hayes and Myron Tagovailoa-Amosa being contenders for that fourth spot.

4. MOST PASSING YARDS PER GAME SINCE 2014

Notre Dame ranked third in passing yards allowed per game in 2019, giving up just 168.5 yards per game. I don’t think Notre Dame will be able to sustain that level of pass defense production, and I think the 2020 season will result in the Irish giving up more passing yards per game than it has since 2014 when it 233.0 yards per game.

There are several reasons for this, and most of them aren’t actually negatives. Losing Navy helps the run defense, but it hurts the pass defense. Navy hasn’t topped 79 passing yards in a game against Notre Dame since 2014 (188), and in both 2016 and 2015 the Irish played a pair of option teams (Army in 2016, Georgia Tech in 2015).

Notre Dame also has a schedule filled with really good passing teams. Last season, Notre Dame played just four offenses that averaged more than 260 passing yards per game (USC, Iowa State, Virginia, Stanford). The 2020 schedule has five (Clemson, North Carolina, Wake Forest, Florida State, Pittsburgh). Notre Dame also faces two of the nation’s best quarterbacks in Trevor Lawrence (Clemson) and Sam Howell (North Carolina).

Losing three starters in the secondary stings, and reports are the Irish secondary has been having a rough time during fall camp for a number of reasons. Combine that with a schedule that has a number of very talented wide receiver units and it could be problematic.

The final point is a positive for Notre Dame. The Irish offense should be very good this season, and Notre Dame should be in position to have a number of blowouts, which combined with teams that throw well could result in teams racking up a lot of meaningless passing yards in those instances.

The bold predictions for the offense can be found HERE.

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