Is Cole Kmet A First-Round Player?
Draft analysts are all over the place when it comes to projecting Notre Dame tight end Cole Kmet in next week’s NFL Draft.
Most agree that Kmet is the top tight end in the draft, but there is a great deal of discrepancy when it comes to where most analysts project him to be selected. I have seen mock drafts where Kmet goes as high as the 20th overall pick (first round) and others that have him in the bottom half of the third round.
So just where should Kmet be selected, and is he really a first round pick?
To make it simple, yes, Kmet is a first-round talent.
Here’s why:
PRODUCTION/EXPERIENCE
Kmet’s career numbers won’t blow you away, but he was a regular in the rotation for just one season. But in his one season he had strong production, hauling in 43 passes for 515 yards and six touchdowns despite missing two games. His catch/receiving numbers tied for the sixth-best single-season marks for an Irish tight end, and his touchdowns tied for the most ever by a Notre Dame tight end.
Teams that study his film will also see that Kmet’s production should have been better. Better quarterback play would have resulted in him posting much better numbers, especially working down the field.
Dig deeper into Kmet’s numbers and you’ll see he tended to produce the best against the best competition. Against the four best Power 5 teams he faced (Georgia, USC, Michigan, Virginia), Kmet hauled in 21 passes for 259 yards and three touchdowns.
Project those numbers out over a 13-game season and he would have finished with 68 catches, 842 yards and nine touchdowns.
COMBINE PERFORMANCE
Kmet had an outstanding combine performance that only boosted his draft stock.
He measured in as the second tallest tight end and he was the heaviest player at his position. Despite that, Kmet had the fourth best 40-yard dash time (4.70), the second best broad jump (123”) and the best vertical jump (37”).
His combination of size and speed is impressive, and Kmet impressed during positional drills.
STRENGTHS
Size-Strength — The first thing you notice about Kmet is his size; he’s tall, thick and long. His wingspan was fifth best among all tight ends at the NFL Scouting Combine and his hands measured in as the biggest. His catch radius is outstanding when you combine his length with his height.
This is important because the bigger the catch radius the bigger the target he is for the quarterback. Not just physically, but practically, when a player has this kind of length the quarterback will be more prone to throw it into tighter windows or give the tight end a greater chance to “go get it” than he would a shorter target or a player with a lesser catch radius.
Kmet needs to add more weight room strength, but his natural strength and punch grades out well. The lack of weight room strength relative to other tight ends in this draft is due in part to the fact he played baseball during the spring and summer of his freshman and sophomore seasons and the broken clavicle he suffered during fall camp, which cost him the first two games of the 2019 season.
There is potential for this to see significant improvement, and it is part of the reason I often mention he’s not close to tapping into his full potential as a player.
Vertical Speed — Kmet ran an impressive 4.70 at the combine, and a source I spoke with said some NFL teams had him as low as 4.67. That’s outstanding speed for a player that size. Consider that former New England Patriots star Rob Gronkowski ran a 4.68, former Irish star Tyler Eifert ran a 4.68 and Detroit Lions tight end TJ Hockenson (the No. 8 pick of the 2019 NFL Draft) ran a 4.71. Hockenson and Eifert were both more than 10 pounds lighter than Kmet.
More important than testing well at the combine is playing fast, and as a junior Kmet showed that ability. He was a legitimate vertical weapon, and it seemed teams were surprised early in the season by his speed, which is why you saw him getting downfield so much against Georgia and Virginia.
That combination of length and vertical speed makes Kmet a challenge to defend up the seams. It also allows him to be highly effective working across the field on cross and drag routes.
Kmet gets off the line in a hurry, which adds to his vertical speed. He is able to quickly eat up the cushion of defenders, which puts a stress on linebackers and safeties that are trying to gauge whether a run or pass play is coming. Any hesitancy is going to result in Kmet blowing past them.
Kmet played this season around 260 pounds, and this kind of burst at the snap is top-notch for a player this size.
Ball Skills — Kmet has strong hands, which allows him to work effectively in traffic and makes him a downfield threat even when he doesn’t get separation. That’s where his wingspan comes into play. A big catch radius won’t do a player much good on contested throws if his hands aren’t strong and his focus isn’t top-notch, and Kmet grades out well in both areas.
Kmet rarely double catches and he tracks the downfield throws quite well. He has enough body control and balance to adjust to poorly thrown balls, which also adds to his ability to make plays down field and enhances his catch radius.
Skills vs. Zone — Kmet has an advanced feel for working himself open against zone defenses. He can find soft spots effectively, settles down quickly and he made a number of plays this season by working free and giving quarterback Ian Book a window to get the ball into a tough spot.
Kmet also shows good recognition of what the defense is running (man vs. zone), which allows him to be decisive as a route runner. This is important because a tight end’s route is going to be effected by the coverage (man vs. zone), and a player that struggles to quickly recognize zone vs. man is going to be slower making decisions as a route runner.
Versatility — Kmet has plenty of experience playing in the slot and lining up in an attached position. He’s run a high volume of routes from each position, and he moved around a great deal (motion) as a junior.
Kmet didn’t get to move outside much in games, but during practices in recent seasons we saw him line up wide a great deal, and he was a natural at it. The Lake Barrington, Ill. native didn’t really start filling out his frame until his senior season in high school. He spent most of his first three seasons playing more like a wide receiver than a tight end, which meant he spent a lot of time playing on the outside.
In practices, Kmet was a matchup nightmare for corners and safeties in these looks.
KNOCKS ON HIS GAME
Blocking — Kmet is not nearly as effective in the run game as he should be when you consider his size, athleticism and natural strength. There are a number of issues with his run game production, but none have to do with a lack of skill. Kmet must continue getting stronger, but improving his technique and feel is most important.
Kmet struggles with hand placement and proper angles of attack in the run game, which puts him at a disadvantage far too frequently. He also struggles to properly keep his base, and he gets his upper body out in front far too far. Once that happens the lower body no longer becomes a factor, and it will result in the blocker either losing his balance or losing his power, and both will result in a loss on that snap.
Beyond better hand placement, Kmet also must learn to strike more effectively in the run game.
When you break Kmet down you will see that effort is not an issue for Kmet, and neither is strength. Everything about his run game production is correctable, and that adds to his upside as a prospect.
Route Technique — Kmet is highly effective against the zone, but he’s not as effective as he should be against man coverage, or when his runs intermediate routes where a zone defender picks him up early.
Kmet needs to clean this up and be more consistent from a fundamental standpoint. At times he gets far too choppy getting out of his top ends. This tends to happen when he gets too high with his release and stem, and when he gets to the top of his route Kmet tries to use his feet and hands to get into and out of his break, which causes choppiness.
When Kmet plays a lower and maintains more of a forward lean he is cleaner getting out of brakes, but learning to use his hips as his brakes more effectively will allow him to be far more productive as a route runner and will lead to the kind of separation his athleticism should otherwise dictate.
Injury History — Kmet missed two games in 2018 with an ankle injury, which effected him all season. He missed most of the 2019 fall camp and the first two games of the 2019 season with a broken collarbone. It’s not the kind of injury history that will keep him off draft boards, but it’s certainly something I expect teams have spent time researching.
If they do one thing they’ll likely learn is that in both instances Kmet returned to action much sooner than initially expected. This shows not only physical and mental toughness, but also a body that heals fast.
CONCLUSION
Yes, Cole Kmet is a first round talent. Will he get picked in the first round? We’ll find that out on Thursday.
Much has been made of the weak draft class, but projecting where he goes based on the overall draft class is nonsensical. He either grades out as a top player or he doesn’t, but if teams do have him as a borderline first round player, and this is in fact a weak draft class, that would only increase the odds he gets picked up sooner.
The reason is if you are looking to decide between Kmet and a wide receiver, or a cornerback, or another position of strength late in the first round or early in the second round the odds are you’ll be able to find a higher graded player at those positions in later rounds than you will at tight end.
If tight end is a need for a team, and Kmet is available in that range the reality is passing on him means you’re taking a much bigger risk at adding a starting caliber player with a high ceiling by waiting until later. Therefore, the weaker draft class would likely boost Kmet’s draft stock.
OTHER KMET ARTICLES FROM IRISH BREAKDOWN
Cole Kmet Solidifies TE Status At The Combine
NBC Analyst Chris Simms Breaks Down Cole Kmet
VIDEO: Cole Kmet At The Combine
Film Room: Cole Kmet Expands The Notre Dame Offense
Combine Profile: Cole Kmet
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