Is Notre Dame A Lock For The College Football Playoff?

Notre Dame is one of three teams that are in complete control of their own destiny.

Should the #2 Fighting Irish beat #3 Clemson in the ACC Championship game they will be a lock for the College Football Playoff. The same is true for the Tigers and #1 Alabama, who takes on Arkansas this weekend before playing #6 Florida in the SEC title game.

The question is what happens if Notre Dame loses to Clemson Dec. 19. Would Notre Dame still be a playoff team in that scenario? I would argue yes, even with a loss Notre Dame will be in the College Football Playoff. That’s not a prediction of what will happen, but an argument for what should happen.

MAKING THE CASE

If Notre Dame loses to Clemson it would be in the team’s 11th game. Texas A&M and Cincinnati have no chance at getting to an 11th game until the playoff. Ohio State has zero chance at ever getting to 11 games this season. Even if Ohio State were to play in the Big Ten title game (or reschedule a game that weekend) and then play in two playoff games it wouldn’t get to double digits in game’s played.

Based on comments made by the committee it seems like this will factor into their decision making, although we don’t yet know how much.

A close loss to Clemson would mean the Tigers and Crimson Tide (assuming it beats Florida) would be locks for the playoff. Notre Dame would have the third best resume of the others in contention.

Notre Dame would end the season with a win over the #2 team in the country and a close loss on a neutral field to the #2 team. It would also have a win over a Top 25 opponent in North Carolina. If the Tar Heels knock off Miami this weekend it would further boost their resume, but even a UNC loss would likely leave them in the Top 25.

Between Notre Dame, Ohio State and Texas A&M, the Irish are the only team to rank in the Top 10 in both offensive efficiency and defensive efficiency according to the Fremeau Efficiency Index. Notre Dame ranks ninth in offensive efficiency and 10th in defensive efficiency. Ohio State ranks second and 14th, respectively, and Texas A&m ranks 16th and 22nd.

OHIO STATE

Ohio State is the #4 team right now, and there are many that assume the Buckeyes would pass Note Dame with an Irish loss, but that’s not a given. Ohio State, at best, will finish the season with a 6-0 record, even with the Big Ten changing its rules to allow the Buckeyes to play for the conference title.

This matters because the more times you play the more opportunities there are to lose. Ohio State, for example, would finish with six total games before the playoff. Clemson and Notre Dame would both finish with 11, and the Tigers suffered their loss in game eight and the Irish would have their loss in game 11.

Ohio State schedule this season is also incredibly underwhelming, and there isn’t a Big Ten team out there that will change that. The Buckeyes right now are building their hopes around what, a win over Indiana? The Hoosiers are a quality club this season, but I’d argue they would be at best the fifth best team in the ACC this season.

It would be a travesty for a team that plays six games to get into the playoff over a team that had to play 11, and spent more weeks ranked in the Top 4 this season than Ohio State will spend playing games.

TEXAS A&M

Then there is Texas A&M, who isn’t playing in a conference title game, and the Aggies will end the season with an 8-1 record with a win at Tennessee this weekend. Texas A&M has an impressive 41-38 win over #6 Florida, but it also suffered a 52-24 loss to #1 Alabama that was over by halftime.

While Texas A&M’s record is good, its dominance is not playoff worthy. In its eight wins, Texas A&M has outscored opponents by an average of 14.6 points per game and has just two wins by at least 14 points. Notre Dame’s 10 wins were by an average of 20.6 points, and the Irish have eight wins by at least 14 points.

Texas A&M has one win over a ranked opponent, and it was by three points. Notre Dame has two wins over ranked opponents by an average of 10.5 points.

CINCINNATI

Cincinnati’s COVID-19 issues in recent weeks puts a damper on its playoff resume. Cincinnati has had two games canceled, but it does get a shot at No. 24 Tulsa in the AAC title game.

While the Bearcats have been the best Group of Five team this season, the lack of games compared to the Irish and Tigers, and the lack of games against any Power 5 opponents will likely hurt their candidacy. Notre Dame’s resume will be built around wins over current #3 Clemson and #17 North Carolina. Cincinnati’s resume is built around a possible title game win over #24 Tulsa.

A 9-0 Cincinnati is highly unlikely to get in over a 10-1 Notre Dame squad that lost to what would end up being the #2 team in the country.

CONCLUSION

Even if Notre Dame gets dominated by Clemson it would still have a better resume than Texas A&M, whose only loss was also by 28 points. If the committee looks past Ohio State’s lack of games, there is still a fourth spot, and even with a loss in the ACC title game the Fighting Irish would have a significantly better resume than any other team in the country.

At this point, I’d be shocked if the Irish don’t make the College Football Playoff. The only scenario that would change this is if Florida beats Alabama. That is when it would come down to Notre Dame vs. Ohio State for the fourth and final spot.

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