Strength on Strength: Indiana's Rush Defense vs. Notre Dame's Rush Offense Will Decide Outcome

Indiana and Notre Dame square off on Friday night in the first ever 12-team playoff game, and the game will be decided in the trenches

Notre Dame quarterback Riley Leonard (13) hands the ball off to running back Jeremiyah Love (4) during a NCAA college football game against Virginia at Notre Dame Stadium on Saturday, Nov. 16, 2024, in South Bend. | MICHAEL CLUBB/SOUTH BEND TRIBUNE / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

This Friday night, Notre Dame will face Indiana inside Notre Dame Stadium in a showdown for the state of Indiana. But this game is about more than just bragging rights. It’s a crucial battle to determine which team will advance in the first-ever 12-team playoff game, with the added significance of being the first-ever playoff game played on a team’s home field.

While the overarching storyline focuses on the playoff implications, an underlying narrative that will shape the game is the clash betweenIndiana’s dominant rush defense and Notre Dame’s elite rush offense.

Notre Dame running back Jeremiyah Love (4) runs the ball for a touchdown during a NCAA college football game against Virginia at Notre Dame Stadium on Saturday, Nov. 16, 2024, in South Bend. | MICHAEL CLUBB/SOUTH BEND TRIBUNE / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The simple stats: Indiana has yet to allow a team to rush for more than 140 yards in a game this season. The most coming in a blowout win vs. Charlotte (137 yards on 4.2 yards per carry). The only other times they've allowed over 100 yards on the ground were against Maryland, Washington, and Ohio State. Overall, Indiana finished as the No. 1 rush defense in the country, allowing 76.2 yards per game.

Notre Dame on the other hand has surpassed 100 yards rushing in every game this season, averages 225 yards rushing per game, and has now gone for 200-plus in five straight games (eight total).

This is where the game will be won or lost. Can Indiana keep the dynamic Notre Dame running game at bay? Or can the Irish offense move the ball consistently on the ground against one of the best rush defenses in the country?

Indiana has yet to allow a 140+ yards rushing performance by a team this season. Their highest YPC allowed is 4.2.

ND has run for 200+ in 5 straight games and 8/12 this season.

In those 5 straight games, they are averaging just under 7 YPC.

This is where the game is won

— Nathan Erbach (@Nathan_Erbach) December 18, 2024

Advantage Notre Dame

Yeah, yeah, I know—call me a homer if you want. While the stats look impressive for both teams, it's worth noting that Indiana has yet to face a team with a top-50 rushing offense. Meanwhile, Notre Dame sits at No. 11 in that category. Ohio State, the best rush offense the Hoosiers have seen this season, ranks at No. 52. Michigan is the only other opponent Indiana faced that finished in the top 90.

In contrast, Notre Dame has averaged 225 yards per game on the ground, facing eight teams ranked in the top 55 for rush defense (including two in the top 20).

People often talk about being "battle-tested." It's true that both Notre Dame and Indiana have played relatively mediocre schedules this year. However, Notre Dame has already proven they can run effectively against top rush defenses. Indiana, on the other hand, has yet to show they can stop elite rushing offenses.

That seems like a significant advantage for Notre Dame in this matchup. Factor in the forecasted weather—possible snow and a high of just 32 degrees—and it further tilts in favor of the Irish.

No run defense has been nearly as good as Indiana's in the back-half of the season (Indiana's toughest stretch).

This is how it compares to the CFP field.

Significant for the first round matchup against Notre Dame. pic.twitter.com/6NPrQCK8rk

— taylor from bite-sized bison (@ByTaylorL) December 8, 2024

The Riley Leonard Affect

Nov 30, 2024; Los Angeles, California, USA; Notre Dame Fighting Irish quarterback Riley Leonard (13) runs the ball against the Southern California Trojans during the second half at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. | Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images

When we think of rushing offense, the mind typically gravitates toward the running backs. Notre Dame has two dynamic backs in Jeremiyah Love (7.1 YPC) and Jadarian Price (7.3 YPC). However, quarterback Riley Leonard also plays a crucial role in the Irish rushing attack, adding an extra layer to the offensive scheme that Indiana will need to account for.

Leonard ran for 721 yards and 14 touchdowns this season and averaged just a shade under six yards per carry. Indiana has yet to face a quarterback that even resembles those numbers.

Love and Price are exceptional college running backs, but Leonard’s ability to contribute on the ground is what truly drives the offense. It's one thing to stop the running back when you load the box; it's another when a quarterback takes off for a big gain while the defense is focused elsewhere. It's one of the most frustrating things a defense can face.

If Leonard protects the football on Friday and performs as he has throughout the season, his dual-threat ability will provide an added dimension that Indiana’s defense has yet to encounter.

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