Notre Dame Soars to No. 1 in Latest ESPN FPI Ratings

Saturday was a glorified scrimmage for Notre Dame, as the Fighting Irish rolled past Stanford, 58-7.

The win moved Notre Dame to 6-0 by routing Stanford in a final warmup before things get a lot more difficult this week at BYU.

While Notre Dame moved up to No. 2 in the latest AP Poll, the Fighting Irish have taken over the No. 1 spot in the ESPN Football Power Index (FPI).

Notre Dame moved up two spots to No. 1 this week, passing Ohio State (dropped from No. 1 to No. 3) and Georgia (stayed No. 2).

It also updated Notre Dame's odds in each of its six remaining regular-season games, starting with the trip to BYU this week.

Notre Dame a Significant Favorite at BYU

No. 2 Notre Dame travels to No. 8 BYU in a top ten matchup, but despite the high rankings in the AP Poll, Notre Dame is a significant favorite according to FPI.

The FPI gives Notre Dame a 78.2% chance to win at BYU this week, which is up 1.8% from a week ago.

Game week

at BYU
📍 Provo, Utah
📆 Saturday, Oct. 17
⏰ 7:30 PM ET
📺 ABC#GoIrish☘️ | @tirerack pic.twitter.com/dOwVPoEmwI
— Notre Dame Football (@NDFootball) October 12, 2026

While BYU is ranked eighth this week in the AP Poll it sits at No. 14 in the FPI which is up two spots from a week ago.

ESPN FPI Projects Remainder of Notre Dame Season

For comparison, here is how FPI projects Notre Dame's chances in the remainder of its games this season, with the change in chances of winning since last week.

at BYU: 78.2% (up 1.8%)
vs. Navy: 98.9% (same)
vs. Miami: 64.1% (up 4.5%)
at Boston College: 99.0% (up 0.3%)
vs. SMU: 94.9% (up 1.6%)
at Syracuse: 96.1% (up 0.4%)

The biggest change in Notre Dame's chances comes against Miami, where Notre Dame is given more than a 4% bump this week.

For whatever its worth, and I don't think a whole lot, Miami won at Stanford 45-7 in Week 1 while Notre Dame routed the Cardinal 58-7 in South Bend this past weekend.

ESPN FPI's Updated Title Odds for Notre Dame

FPI also gives Notre Dame the following updated chances for the 2026 season:

Projected record: 11.3-0.7 (up from 11.2-0.8 last week)
Make the College Football Playoff: 93.4% (down from 94.6%)
Make National Championship Game: 31.8% (up from 25.1%)
Win National Championship: 18.0% (up from 12.9%)

Nick Shepkowski's Quick Thoughts

In the AP Poll, hopes of Notre Dame vs. Miami being a No. 1 vs. No. 2 showdown likely came to an end this weekend as Georgia beat Alabama.

Georgia moved to No. 1 in the AP Poll and with its schedule between now and November 7, it's very difficult to see a potential loss (Auburn and Florida).

When I look at BYU I see a team that is built a lot like the 2024 Notre Dame squad that went to the national championship game.

It has a very good defense and a running game that will try to grind things out and shorten the game against you.

Can Notre Dame's elite run defense that is allowing less than 60 yards per game continue to dominated in that regard?

The answer to that question will likely tell us just how interesting this game will be once the fourth quarter comes around.

Overall the computer numbers liking Notre Dame more and more as the year goes on speak to a trend we've seen the last few years under Marcus Freeman, that this team gets geared up as the year goes on, and peaks at season's end.

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