Notre Dame on Upset Alert? ESPN FPI Projects Irish Showdown at Pitt

Notre Dame has its most difficult remaining task of the regular season this week at Pittsburgh

Notre Dame head coach Marcus Freeman celebrates with his players after winning a NCAA football game 49-10 against Navy at Notre Dame Stadium on Saturday, Nov. 8, 2025, in South Bend. | MICHAEL CLUBB/SOUTH BEND TRIBUNE / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Could Notre Dame (7-2) be on upset watch this weekend at Pittsburgh (7-2)? It's one of the biggest games of the college football slate this weekend as College GameDay will be on location for the noon ET kickoff between old rivals.

But does Pittsburgh have a real chance in this one?

Forget personal agendas and our own thoughts for a second - what do the computers say about Pat Narduzzi and Pittsburgh's chances of ruining Notre Dame's season?

ESPN FPI Projects Notre Dame at Pittsburgh:

Oct 28, 2023; South Bend, Indiana, USA; Pittsburgh Panthers wide receiver Bub Means (0) catches a pass against Notre Dame Fighting Irish cornerback Cam Hart (5) in the second quarter at Notre Dame Stadium. | Matt Cashore-Imagn Images

The ESPN Football Power Index, a computer model that projects the college football season and games, has its latest numbers out for Notre Dame's trip to the Steel City. It certainly likes Notre Dame to win, but don't expect the same kind of cake walk last week against Navy was.

The latest FPI numbers give Notre Dame a 77.3% chance of victory on Saturday.

For comparison sake, FPI gave Notre Dame a roughly 95% chance at beating Navy last week, and gave the Irish a 68.8% chance of beating USC nearly a month ago when the Trojans came to South Bend.

Pitt Has Traditionally Been a Thorn in Side of Notre Dame

Notre Dame has dominated the last couple of meetings with Pittsburgh, winning by a combined score of 103-10 in the two meetings since 2020. However, Pittsburgh has caused some major problems for Notre Dame in a couple of the more memorable recent seasons in Fighting Irish history.

2012 Thriller in South Bend

2012 was a magical year for Notre Dame, as the Fighting Irish finally returned to glory after a 12-0 regular season. In a season that had plenty of thrillers, no win was less likely than its comeback win over Pittsburgh in early November.

Trailing 20-6 in the fourth quarter, the fourth-ranked Fighting Irish rallied late to force overtime. A missed field goal by Pittsburgh in the second overtime set up the eventual game-winning touchdown run by Everett Golson to move Notre Dame to 9-0.

Another Irish Comeback Saves 2018 Season

Notre Dame made its first trip to the College Football Playoff in 2018 after completing a 12-0 regular season. Again, however, it was a Saturday in South Bend against Pittsburgh that nearly derailed that.

6-0 Notre Dame had its hands full after Maurice Ffrench returned the second-half kickoff for a touchdown to stretch the Pittsburgh lead to 14-6, a lead it would hold until Ian Book found Myles Boykin for the game-winning touchdown pass with just under six minutes to play.