Notre Dame’s Nightmare Scenario: How Championship Weekend Could Derail the Irish

Notre Dame didn't get much of a challenge Saturday night at Stanford, jumping out to a 35-0 lead before cruising to a 49-20 victory over the Cardinal.

The win gives Notre Dame a final record of 10-2 on the 2025 regular season, as it now awaits conference championship weekend next weekend, and its postseason fate that will be announced next Sunday.

ESPN updated its Football Power Index numbers on Sunday morning, following the final week of college football's regular season.

If it is to be trusted, then Notre Dame should have virtually no worries about making the College Football Playoff.

The updated FPI numbers give Marcus Freeman and the Fighting Irish an 83.4% chance to make the playoff field, the ninth best of any team nationally.

1-5, all 100% chance:

Ohio State
Indiana
Georgia
Ole Miss
Oregon

6: 99.9% Chance

Oklahoma

7-8, Almost Certain:

Texas Tech (98.2%)
Texas A&M (97,5%)

Final Few:

Notre Dame: 83.4%
Alabama: 65.9%
James Madison: 60.8%
Virginia: 55.6%

Other Contenders:

North Texas: 42.1%
Tulane: 37.9%
BYU: 35.3%

Snowball's Chance

Miami: 10.3%
Vanderbilt: 5.8%
Texas: 2.0%
Utah: 1.7%
UNLV: 1.6%

What Does it All Mean?

When you look at these numbers, it becomes fairly clear that as much as the masses seemingly want to make the College Football Playoff debate about Notre Dame and Miami, the real argument is between Alabama and Notre Dame.

Although its impossible to get inside the mind of the College Football Playoff commitee, it does appear obvious that the group sees Notre Dame being a step ahead of Miami still currently. So what is the threat to Notre Dame when it comes to possibly not making the College Football Playoff?

Notre Dame's Championship Weekend Fear

Notre Dame of course sits at home on conference championship weekend while others play for playoff positioning. There is one situation that Notre Dame will be rooting against happening this coming weekend.

Notre Dame wants Texas Tech to do to BYU what it did earlier in the year: beat up the Cougars. With where BYU sits now, even a close loss to Texas Tech this time around wouldn't seemingly be enough to boost it into the College Football Playoff.

However, if BYU wins, then Notre Dame becomes a huge Ole Miss fan next Saturday afternoon.

Georgia is set to play Alabama in the SEC championship game. An Alabama win over Georgia could very possibly be enough for the Tide to overtake Notre Dame in the CFP rankings. Couple that with BYU potentially beating Texas Tech and earning an automatic bid, and you're looking at a situation where Notre Dame gets left out.

If Virginia wins the ACC it'll be included in the playoff and one spot has to be guaranteed to a Group of Six team. Add it altogether and that's 12 teams before we get to Notre Dame.

Fan Duel Sportsbook currently lists BYU as a 12.5 point underdog to Texas Tech while Georgia is a -1.5 point favorite against Alabama. The chances aren't great of the Notre Dame Elimination Parlay occurring, but there is clearly a path.