Preseason Hype or Letdown? Top 10 Teams Most Likely to Disappoint

College football season starts officially in just 11 days when Farmageddon hits in Ireland, with Iowa State and Kansas State battling abroad. Year two of the expanded College Football Playoff is upon us, and Tuesday's release of the preseason AP Poll only stoked those fires.

The question of "how much do preseason rankings matter?" is asked the second these come out each year.

The answer is a resounding "YES!" or "NO!" depending how you look at them.

On one hand, no team has won a national championship from starting the season anywhere lower than sixth in the preseason AP Poll since the start of the College Football Playoff. That was the unforgettable 2019 LSU squad led by Joe Burrow.

However, in the last 23 years, only once has at least one preseason top 10 team not finished the year unranked.

So who will be that victim(s) in 2025?

2024's Preseason Top 10 Victims

Mike Norvell coaches Florida State during the 2024 seaso — Oct 26, 2024; Miami Gardens, Florida, USA; Florida State Seminoles head coach Mike Norvell watches from the sideline against the Miami Hurricanes during the second quarter at Hard Rock Stadium. | Sam Navarro-Imagn Images

Last year two teams fell victim to the epic drop from a top 10 preseason ranking. Michigan stumbled to an 8-5 season after starting it ranked ninth, but did beat Ohio State and Alabama to close the year, making that five-loss year feel at least a little better.

Florida State began 2024 ranked 10th, and had one of the worst years in program history, stumbling to a 2-10 mark with its only wins coming over California and Charleston Southern.

2025 Top 10 Disappointment Candidates:

No Chance of Finishing Unranked: Texas, Penn State, Ohio State, Clemson

Texas Longhorns head coach Steve Sarkisian leads warm ups prior to the Cotton Bowl Classic College Football Playoff semifinal game between the Ohio State Buckeyes and the Texas Longhorns at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas on Jan. 10, 2025. | Adam Cairns/Columbus Dispatch / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Although there are plenty of impressive resumes of preseason top 10 teams, these four return are a cut above. Penn State and Clemson return masses of talent and veteran starting quarterbacks. Texas has a load of talent, headed by Heisman Trophy finalist Arch Manning. Ohio State might not have an experienced quarterback like the others, but has two of the nation's top players in wide receiver Jeremiah Smith and Caleb Downs. These four are as safe of bets to make the College Football Playoff as it gets in 2025.

There Are Slight Concerns: Georgia, Notre Dame, Oregon, Alabama

Gunner Stockton throws a pass in the 2025 Sugar Bow — Jan 2, 2025; New Orleans, LA, USA; Georgia Bulldogs quarterback Gunner Stockton (14) prepares to pass the ball to Bulldogs wide receiver Arian Smith (11) against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish during the fourth quarter at Caesars Superdome. | Geoff Burke-Imagn Images

Georgia: It won the SEC, but has to replace the bulk of its contributors. Losing Carson Beck draws the headlines but how Georgia gets the run game going is my biggest question entering the fall

Notre Dame: Brutal start at Miami and home against Texas A&M. What if the new quarterback (name TBD) isn't ready and the Irish start 0-2? Could Marcus Freeman get things back on track following another shaky September?

Oregon: The ceiling on this Oregon team doesn't feel as high as last year's following the loss of 15 starters. Quarterback Dante Moore will need to make an early impact for the new-look Ducks to get back to the playoffs.

Alabama: Year Two under Kalen DeBoer should give us a good idea of what kind of program Alabama will be under the former Washington head coach. Ty Simpson has waited his turn at quarterback and will start for the Crimson Tide. I expect them to contend for the SEC crown, but the teams at least vulnerable currently, unlike it ever felt under Nick Saban.

The Two True Disappointment Candidates: LSU and Miami

LSU: Brian Kelly has struggled three years into his time at LSU, but is talking like he has a national championship contender this fall. Its defense improved last year, went transfer portal hunting for more help, and but needs to be ready early. Dates at Clemson, home against Florida, and at Ole Miss all occur before September ends.

Miami: To me, Miami feels like LSU from a year ago. Its offense was amazing last year, leading the nation in scoring, but it takes a step back with Carson Beck at quarterback. The defense is counting on a slew of transfers to clean up the back end, which was putrid a year ago. Notre Dame and Florida come to Miami in September whi,le low-key trips to SMU, Virginia Tech, and Pitt make this schedule a bit more difficult than you might think for an ACC squad.

Nick Shepkowski's Quick Thought:

I will say, the fallout factor for those I ranked as the prime candidates this year isn't nearly as high as i had a year ago for Michigan and Florida State. Neither is replacing a head coach like Michigan was, and both have steady quarterbacks entering 2025, which should keep them from complete fallout, but there are certainly more concerns than many would lead you to believe.