If You're Worried About Notre Dame's Playoff Chances, You Shouldn't Be

If you're worried about Notre Dame's Playoff chances after suffering a controversial, devastating loss at BYU, you've come to the right place.

Fear not, concerned citizen. The Irish's season won't end with scoffing at the Pop-Tarts Bowl. A Playoff berth is still clearly the most likely result, even after a loss in the first of those three headliner games on the 2026 schedule.

I know what you're thinking.

Doesn't that mean the Miami game is now Playoff or Bust?

It's not. I wouldn't have said that in the preseason. Shoot, I don't think I would've even said that at this time last week.

But then we watched a historic day unfold in which five of the top-7 teams fell on the same day for the first time in the nearly century-long history of the AP Poll.

While it would've benefited Notre Dame if it had been able to avoid being a part of that statistic, it's worth examining the bigger picture.

There are only five remaining Power Conference unbeatens. Two of those teams, are BYU and Miami, both of whom won on extremely controversial finishes (more on that in a bit).

Yes, losing to both of those teams would put the Irish behind two teams who would be more Playoff-worthy than them. The possibility of getting blocked because of a head-to-head result would be reminiscent of last year with the Canes leapfrogging the Irish in the final ranking.

But remember why this isn't last year, aka the season in which five Power Conference teams with double-digit wins were left out of the 12-team field, including Notre Dame. Three of the four Power Conferences had a team miss the field with double-digit wins.

Speaking of last year, heading into Week 8 of the 2025 season, there were still eight undefeated Power Conference teams. It wasn't until Week 10 that the number of Power Conference unbeatens finally dropped below five.

What does that mean? We're setting up for a Selection Sunday that offers a bit more grace in 2026, especially if you're a team that doesn't play in a conference championship game but does have a new stipulation that guarantees a Playoff bid with a top-12 ranking.

You know, just in case you forgot.

But let's get back to that controversial ending and what it means for the Miami game

Take the AP Poll for what it is. The Irish fell all the way to ... No. 4. Why? You can bet that some voters felt that the Irish got a raw deal with the non-call on the defensive pass interference, as well as there being a second left on the clock.

You can bet the selection committee will have that context in mind as it evaluates the BYU loss. Is it still a loss? You bet. It was a much different first loss to suffer than, say, USC, which got run out of its own building by a multi-loss Oregon with a backup quarterback.

Not all losses are created equal. Of course, not all wins are created equally, either. History suggests that quality losses aren't as important as quality wins.

If Notre Dame loses to Miami, its only real chance for a remaining ranked win will come against SMU, which sits at No. 23 entering Week 8. It would still potentially be 10-2 with eight wins against Power Conference foes.

And for what it's worth, winning by double digits at UNC aged well, as did that season-opening win vs. Wisconsin at Lambeau Field. Those are a pair of 4-2 teams who could very well sneak into the AP Top 25 by season's end.

If you're still not convinced of Notre Dame's résumé being Playoff-worthy without a Miami win, ask yourself this. Why, then, are the Irish still at -700 to make the field on FanDuel? Isn't that basically the same odds as what the Irish entered the season with?

That wouldn't be the case if Notre Dame had lost 35-7 in Provo. How that game unfolded mattered. How that Miami game unfolds will matter. A Playoff berth is all but guaranteed if the Irish win, and even if revenge isn't served in South Bend, Marcus Freeman's squad still stands to benefit from this chaotic year.

Perhaps that's not what folks like Kirk Herbstreit want to hear. After all, Herbstreit offered up a controversial preamble to the BYU matchup by dogging the Irish's schedule and called it "an embarrassment."

ESPN’s Kirk Herbstreit calls Notre Dame’s schedule an “embarrassment” pic.twitter.com/iP0eaC7qck
— Pete Sampson (@PeteSampson_) October 16, 2026

It'd be an embarrassment if anyone dismissed Notre Dame's Playoff chances based on how Saturday night played out. Herbstreit was on the call for that. Surely the talking heads will lazily look at the Miami game in a few weeks and say that Notre Dame's Playoff path ends without a win.

Time will tell. For now, my advice for Irish fans is simple.

It's 2026, not 2025.

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