Ohio State Buckeyes Fans Won't Like ESPN's Latest Prediction

Throughout the talking stage of the 2025 season, all eyes are on the Texas Longhorns rather than the defending national champions.

It’s wholly understandable, Texas will finally take the field with Arch Manning as its starting quarterback. He’ll be backed by one of the strongest rosters in college football, too. ESPN’s Football Power Index backed that up, with its data and simulations providing no other team with a better shot at reaching (37.7%) and winning (24.1%) the College Football Playoff National Championship.

By comparison, the Buckeyes hold a 21.3% chance of reaching the final game of the season and a 10.8% chance of winning it all for a second consecutive season. While those are the best chances of any team in the Big Ten, Texas, as well as Georgia and Alabama, have comparable or better odds.

The strange thing is, Texas, just like Ohio State, Georgia, and Alabama, is starting a brand new quarterback in 2025. He just so happens to be one of the most hyped players at the quarterback position in a generation, even beyond Trevor Lawrence and Andrew Luck in recent history.

“They have Arch Manning, in case you have not gotten that email from the front office,” Paul Finebaum said recently on ESPN’s Get Up!. "He is expected to be better than Quinn Ewers. I was not that impressed with Ewers last year. I think Arch Manning, had he come in Cotton Bowl, [Texas] may have had a better shot and maybe even beaten Ohio State. But he is going to be the leader of this team…

“I think Texas, other than having to go to Ohio State in Week 1, is in great shape."

Arch Manning’s Hype Train Stops in Columbus First

Yeah, that Ohio State game is going to tell the college football world a whole lot about Arch Manning. If he shines and wills Texas to a monumental road victory, he’ll deserve his flowers. If not, well, all that offseason talk was wasted air until he inevitably rebounds later in the season.

Truth be told, the whole college football world should be excited for Manning to finally prove himself at the college level. And ESPN’s FPI data is a trusted measurement of how the best teams stack up, especially in June when all there is to do is speculate on the upcoming campaign.

But that doesn’t detract from the absurdity surrounding Texas in 2025. They play the nation’s 4th-toughest schedule according to FPI and return just 40% of their offensive production from 2024, which ranks 109th. Texas won’t be bad; they reloaded through the Transfer Portal and recruit well. But they will certainly take lumps this season.

One of those lumps could very well come against the Buckeyes in Columbus right out of the gate.