Ohio State’s Late Game Collapse Against Texas Makes the Wrong Kind of History

The Buckeyes' loss casts serious doubts whether this team has what it takes, on the sidelines, to win another Natty.

Texas Longhorns running back Hollywood Smothers (2) scores the game winning touchdown during the NCAA football game against the Ohio State Buckeyes at Darrell K Royal–Texas Memorial Stadium in Austin, Texas on Sept. 12, 2026. Texas won 24-23. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

Ohio State’s shocking Saturday night meltdown against Texas sent waves through college football.

Even if the end result shouldn’t be surprising in itself, a one-point home win for the fourth-ranked team against the top-ranked team, the latter being a -1.5 underdog at kickoff, the way in which the Buckeyes collapsed in the fourth quarter of a game that looked already decided was stunning.

According to ESPN’s model, Ohio State’s win probability peaked at 98.3 percent late in the third quarter, with the score at 23-3, before the Longhorns came roaring back with 21 unanswered points. 

As a matter of fact, Ohio State’s late game collapse made the wrong kind of history in so many ways.

According to ESPN

• Since 2004, AP No. 1 teams were 197-0 when holding a 20-point lead at any point in the 4th quarter. The Buckeyes made it 197-1. 

According to BuckeyeStats

• Ohio State was 309-0 when leading by 17+ points at halftime. The Buckeyes are now 309-1. 

According to IronFBStats: 

• Ryan Day was 18-0 when Ohio State forced 2+ turnovers. He is now 18-1.

• Ryan Day was 57-0 when leading by 20+, and 51-0 when leading by 20+ going into the 4th. His biggest blown lead ever was 16.

• Steve Sarkisian was 0-22 when trailing by 20+. That included 0-15 against ranked teams and 0-11 when down 20+ going into the 4th. 

According to CFBHome:

• Ohio State’s loss was the largest lead blown by an AP No. 1 since 1995.

• Ohio State had gone 137-0 when leading by 17+ going into the 4th, and 21-0 in that spot as AP #1.

• Ohio State had gone 160-1 after leading by 20+. The only loss was 2011 at Nebraska.  

What does Ohio State’s late game collapse mean for the season?

Despite the loss, the Buckeye’s path towards a berth in the College Football Playoff remains almost unaltered, thanks to the 12-team field. Nonetheless, it would be remiss to say nothing's changed for Ohio State. 

Not only has Ryan Day’s team lost three out of their four most recent outings, but the game management in the fourth quarter for the Buckeyes casts serious doubt whether this team has what it takes on the sidelines to make a run for another National title, despite a Championship winning head coach and two former NFL head coaches as coordinators on offense and defense.