How Ohio State Basketball Can Get Off the NCAA Tournament Bubble

March is approaching and approaching fast.

There are only five regular season games remaining for the Buckeyes, and, as of right now, they are right outside of the bubble, looking in.

This begs the question: how do they get into the tournament? Let's break it down.

BEAT MICHIGAN STATE AND PURDUE

Michigan State guard Jeremy Fears Jr. talks to head coach Tom Izzo during the first half against Duke at Breslin Center in East Lansing on Saturday, Dec. 6, 2025. | Junfu Han / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The Buckeyes have two top 25 matchups left this season, Sunday against Michigan State in East Lansing and March 1st against Purdue at home.

East Lansing is a notoriously tough place to play, just ask Mick Cronin and UCLA after getting blown out there earlier this week. Ohio State has not beaten a top-25 opponent all season on the road. In fact, the only top-25 team they have beaten was their most recent home win against #24 Wisconsin. While that win against the Badgers was massive, losing to them in their building a couple of weeks earlier makes it a little less impactful.

As for other ranked teams this season, the Buckeyes have lost to Michigan twice, Nebraska, Illinois, Virginia, and North Carolina, putting the Buckeyes 0-8 in Quad One games this season.

Their saving grace is being 6-1 against Quad Two teams, 5-0 against Quad 3, and 6-0 against Quad 4 teams. There are no good wins, but there are no bad losses as well. Bart Torvik has the latest Wisconsin win as a Quad 2 win and the loss as a Quad One loss. If Wisconsin can regain momentum, that win may be upgraded to a Quad One win, which is just what they need.

BEAT IOWA AND INDIANA

Iowa guard Bennett Stirtz (14) talks to Iowa head coach Ben McCollum during a game against the UMass Lowell Riverhawks Dec. 29, 2025 at Carver-Hawkeye Arena in Iowa City, Iowa. | Julia Hansen/Iowa City Press-Citizen / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The next step after pulling off the major upsets against both Michigan State and Purdue is to beat Iowa and Indiana. Iowa is a Quad One road game. Indiana is a Quad Two home game. Indiana is also the final game of the season, and there is no better way to leave a lasting impression than a convincing home win against another Big Ten team looking to sneak into the Tournament.

Right now, Bart Torvik has Iowa winning by more than five points. He also has Ohio State beating Indiana by more than two points. The Buckeyes cannot afford a split of these two games, so pulling off that road win at Iowa as projected five-point underdogs would be massive.

The tough part is that Iowa comes in between the Michigan State and Purdue games, putting the Buckeyes in a mean sandwich spot.

DO NOT LOSE TO PENN STATE

Ohio State Buckeyes forward Puff Johnson (6) drives past Penn State Nittany Lions forward Ivan Juric (3) during the first half of the NCAA men's basketball game at the Schottenstein Center in Columbus on Jan. 26, 2026. | Adam Cairns/Columbus Dispatch / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Penn State is not good. They are ranked 132nd in the country according to Torvik, but a road win against them would give the Buckeyes an additional Quad Two win. Torvik currently projects Ohio State to win by nearly eight points, which would be a nice, easy win leading into the Indiana finale.

This is a game they cannot lose. If they lose to Penn State, they can all but kiss their at-large bid chances goodbye.

WIN THE BIG TEN TOURNAMENT

Ohio State Buckeyes guard Bruce Thornton (2) dribbles around Michigan Wolverines forward Morez Johnson Jr. (21) during the NCAA men's basketball game at the Schottenstein Center in Columbus on Feb. 8, 2026. | Adam Cairns/Columbus Dispatch / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

If all else fails and the Buckeyes cannot string together wins these last five games, the next best option is to earn an automatic bid. The only way to do that at this point is to win the Big Ten Tournament. Right now, they are tied for 7th in the conference with Iowa and UCLA at 9-6.

If the Buckeyes can pull off the miracle and make serious noise in the tournament, then they clearly deserve to be a part of the party. An early exit, however, may seal their doom.

The Buckeyes play in a league that is expected to bring in close to ten teams into the tournament. Ohio State hasn’t won consecutive games since the middle of January and has not won more than two games in a row since non-conference play in November.

Their path is not an easy one, but Bart Torvik currently gives them a 53.8% chance of making the tournament thanks to their win against the Badgers. What transpires in these final five games will decide their fate. Can they win? If they lose, do they get blown out? Can they pull off one ranked upset against Purdue or Michigan State?

A lot is riding on these final five games, and that is because of their inability to string together wins and beat quality opponents. Well, they have nothing but quality wins staring them in the face coming up. If they have any desire to dance this March, it needs to be choreographed now.