Ohio State's At-Large Chances Ahead of Big Ten Tournament

It is now March. The regular season is over. The Big Ten Tournament is looming.

The Buckeyes, despite being one of the most consistently inconsistent teams all season long, seem to be in a good spot.

The bubble is notoriously bad this year, and, due to that, luck seems to have broken the Buckeyes’ way.

WHERE THEY CURRENTLY STAND

Ohio State Buckeyes guard Bruce Thornton (2) reacts after becoming Ohio State men's basketball's all-time leading scorer in the first half of the NCAA game at Value City Arena on Saturday, March 7, 2026 in Columbus, Ohio. | Samantha Madar/Columbus Dispatch / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The Buckeyes had a great Saturday. Not only did they handily beat Indiana at home, but they also ended the season winning three in a row. Winning three in a row is something this team had not done since before conference play, back from November 3rd through November 25th.

Another great piece of news from Saturday’s Big Ten slate was the home loss of Purdue to Wisconsin. Ohio State split with Wisconsin, but their win over Purdue changes their loss to a Quad 1-A loss and their win as a Quad One win, per Bart Torvik.

Heading into their final five games, the Buckeyes did not have a single quad one win. Now, they have three. Due to this, Bart Torvik is now giving the Buckeyes a 100% chance of an at-large tournament bid. Most other bracketologists also have the Buckeyes in, sitting around an 11 seed.

If they can win a game or two in the Big Ten Tournament and avoid a blowout loss to an inferior opponent, the Buckeyes seem destined to dance for the first time since 2022.

WHAT HAPPENED TO THIS WEEK’S BUBBLE TEAMS?

Mar 7, 2026; Columbus, Ohio, USA; Indiana Hoosiers guard Lamar Wilkerson (3) reacts as time winds down during the second half against the Ohio State Buckeyes at Value City Arena. Mandatory Credit: Joseph Maiorana-Imagn Images | Joseph Maiorana-Imagn Images

There were a handful of bubble teams that did Ohio State favors this week. It did not start off looking good, with a team like TCU locking up their bid with their win at Texas Tech, then at home against Cincinnati.

It ended wonderfully, though. On Saturday alone, Indiana lost, thanks to the Buckeyes, but so did California, Auburn, Texas, USC, New Mexico, NC State, SMU, Missouri, and Virginia Tech. Saint Louis keeps losing in the A-10, making it more likely that it's a one-bid league. Miami (OH) should wrap up the MAC Conference title, which will give them their bid. If these mid-major leagues can stay as a one-bid league, the Buckeyes’ chances are even greater.

Of @ESPNLunardi's last seven at-large teams and his first five teams out of the field, nine were in action today.

All nine lost.

Missouri
Texas
SMU
Indiana
New Mexico
Auburn
Virginia Tech
Cincinnati
California

0-9 today.
— Jeff Borzello (@jeffborzello) March 8, 2026

Ahead of the Big Ten Tournament, the Ohio State Buckeyes are in a prime position to earn an at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament. That is amazing considering they were literally 50-50 heading into the final five games of the season. They took care of business while other bubble teams could not.

Barring a first-round exit in the Big Ten tournament and a slew of Cinderellas across the country, it is highly unlikely the Buckeyes will not be dancing this year. Their seed may be in the double digits, but a seed is better than no seed. This is March; anything is possible.