Which Cotton Bowl matchup favors Ohio State — Miami or Texas A&M?

Ohio State will face the winner of Miami and Texas A&M in the Cotton Bowl. A breakdown of both teams shows which matchup favors the Buckeyes.

Dec 6, 2025; Indianapolis, IN, USA; Ohio State Buckeyes safety Caleb Downs (2) and cornerback Lorenzo Styles Jr. (3) react in the first half against the Indiana Hoosiers during the 2025 Big Ten championship game at Lucas Oil Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Aaron Doster-Imagn Images | Aaron Doster-Imagn Images

Ohio State’s Cotton Bowl fate will come down to the winner of Miami and Texas A&M, who face off in the first round on Saturday, Dec. 20 at 12 p.m. ET. Here’s how each potential matchup stacks up — and why Miami is the more favorable opponent for Ohio State.

The 10-2 Miami Hurricanes snuck into the CFP at No. 10 after losing to Louisville by three and SMU by six in overtime.

The Hurricanes are a defense-first team, just like the Buckeyes. They led the ACC in fewest total yards allowed per game with 277.8, fewest points allowed per game with 13.8, and fewest rushing yards allowed per game with 86.8. They are an elite defensive team by ACC standards. However, the Buckeyes — the strongest defensive team in the country — allow far fewer yards and points overall.

Offensively, the Hurricanes were solid but not league-leading in any category — a profile similar to the Buckeyes. Both teams had similar yardage and points on the season, but Ohio State is slightly more balanced and runs the ball better. 

Nov 22, 2025; Blacksburg, Virginia, USA; Miami (FL) Hurricanes quarterback Carson Beck (11) throws a pass against the Virginia Tech Hokies during the first quarter at Lane Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brian Bishop-Imagn Images | Brian Bishop-Imagn Images

Quarterback Carson Beck is at the helm for the Hurricanes. While Beck is overall very effective with a 74.7% completion rate, his struggles have come when Miami is forced out of rhythm. Beck threw four interceptions in the Hurricanes’ loss to Louisville and two more in their overtime loss to SMU. That tendency could be magnified against Ohio State’s suffocating, pressure-heavy defense.

Texas A&M finished the year 11-1 with a No. 7 ranking in the CFP. Their only loss came in their last game of the season to Texas, who Ohio State beat 14-7 in the season opener. The Aggies have a more physically productive offense than both the Buckeyes and Hurricanes. They specifically have a much stronger run game than the Buckeyes, paired with higher overall yardage output. 

Defensively, the Aggies are solid in the SEC. They allow an average of 309.8 yards per game, but this is still far from Ohio State’s nationally elite 213.5 yards per game average.

So who do the Buckeyes match up better with?

The Miami Hurricanes.

Miami’s strengths on defense align with Ohio State’s own identity, but the Buckeyes execute it at a higher level. Ohio State’s elite defense is well-suited to challenge a pass-leaning Miami offense, particularly if Beck is forced into high-volume passing situations. Without a dominant rushing attack to stabilize the game, Miami would be playing directly into Ohio State’s greatest strength — a scenario the Buckeyes would welcome.