Four Bold Predictions for Oklahoma State Cowboys vs. West Virginia in Week 4
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The Oklahoma State Cowboys are looking for their first Big 12 Conference win since 2023 when they face the West Virginia Mountaineers on Saturday.
The Cowboys (2-1) and the Mountaineers (3-0) are both receiving votes in the AP Top 25 and in the USA Today Top 25 coaches poll, but aren’t ranked yet. A win like this for either team could get them in come Sunday.
Oklahoma State would like to check another thing they haven’t done in a while off the checklist. That means a Morgantown win.
Here are four bold predictions for Saturday’s game between the Cowboys and the xxxx
Oklahoma State Will Outrush West Virginia
Well, you wanted bold if you’re reading this. So here’s one. WVU enters the game No. 6 in the country in rushing yards at 283 yards per game. The Cowboys are No. 29 at 227.1 yards per game. This doesn’t mean the Cowboys aren’t going to pass the football. It just means I think by game’s end the Cowboys will have more rushing yards.
Here’s my logic. Based on who WVU has played to this point I think the Cowboys are the best run defense they’ve faced so far. Coastal Carolina gave up 281 yards, UT Martin gave up 316 yards, and Virginia gave up 247 yards. Virginia is the No. 69 run defense in the country, giving up 126.0 yards per game.
The Cowboys’ run defense is tied for No. 35 at 100 yards per game. Oklahoma State’s front four has shown a great ability to set the edge and contain outside run. OSU also has sure-handed tacklers at corner, linebacker and safety.
They won’t stop West Virginia. But the Cowboys will slow them down.
Meanwhile, the WVU run defense is ranked No. 64 in the country, giving up 119 yards per game. With all the multiple fronts that the Mountaineers are likely to use, along with the blitz packages, if quarterback Drew Mestemaker recognizes the disguised fronts, then he can get the Cowboys in the right run fits and running back Caleb Hawkins could have a huge game.
WVU wants to beat you with volume. I think OSU can match them with chunk plays.
The Cowboys Will Score on Special Teams
I got the sense last week that Oklahoma State was close. Naturally, the Malik Charles interception could have led to a score. But on punt returns, Miles Coleman came close a couple of times to breaking one. West Virginia probably saw that on tape and will adjust their punt accordingly. But if he catches the right seam, he could take it to the house.
The punt return will be the Cowboys’ best shot. The Mountaineers have kicked off 22 times and all 22 have been touchbacks. So, Coleman takes it to the house.
Drew Mestemaker Avoids a Turnover
If there is any criticism of Cowboys quarterback Drew Mestemaker, it’s ball security. He’s committed at least one turnover in each of his first three games with OSU. The good news? Those numbers are declining. He had three against Tulsa (two interceptions and a fumble), two against Oregon (two interceptions on tipped passes) and one against Murray State (a fumble). So if that’s the trend line, then he’ll get through this one without one, right?
Easier said than done. If you read my matchups piece you know that West Virginia is going to throw all kinds of fronts and blitz packages against him. Defensive coordinator Zac Alley likes to disguise them, too. This could be one of Mestemaker’s biggest mental tests of the season, at least to this point. He’s going to be busy every play trying to read what Alley is throwing at him.
Here’s why I think he gets through it unscathed. He’s progressed fast as a decision-maker since the Tulsa game. He has three weeks under his belt with five receivers he trusts — Wyatt Young, Chris Barnes, Justin Bowick, Miles Coleman and Terrence Lewis. Tight end Carson Kolb has turned into a nice security blanket. The protection is far better than it was in Week 1, too. Plus, he and head coach Eric Morris talk on Thursday about what’s working for him and what isn’t. What isn’t won’t be on the call sheet on Saturday.
All those things in combination, plus, my belief that OSU will outgain WVU on the ground hence giving them a bit of a time of possession edge, leads me to believe he’ll emerge without a turnover.
My Game Prediction
I’ve done some radio hits this week and I really believe this is a game more people should be talking about. Both OSU and WVU had expectations of being better in 2026 and so far, so good. The Tulsa loss turned out to be the best thing that could have happened to the Cowboys early. It was the dose of humble pie everyone needed. The Mountaineers are undefeated and, aside from that wayward second half against Coastal Carolina, they’ve looked good. Quarterback Michael Hawkins Jr. is the perfect QB for head coach Rick Rodriguez’s system.
That means this game really comes down to defense. Is it the high-level execution I’ve seen from Oklahoma State the last two weeks that will win this game or will West Virginia’s complex front and blitz disguises take it? I believe it’s the OSU defense that will get it done late.
Oklahoma State 33, West Virginia 28
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Matthew Postins is the publisher of Oklahoma State on SI. He is an award-winning sports journalist who was formerly the editor of the College Football America Yearbook and covers the Big 12 Conference for Heartland College Sports.
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