How Close Is Oklahoma State to Competing for a Bowl Game?

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As a reminder, the last time the Oklahoma State Cowboys made a bowl game was in 2023. Fans could be forgiven for forgetting.
That season, head coach Mike Gundy led the Cowboys back to the Big 12 championship game for the second time in three years. OSU lost it to Texas but ended up getting a berth in the Texas bowl. The Cowboys wrapped up a 10-4 season with a win in Houston.
It's been all downhill from there. The Cowboys are 4-20 since that victory, haven't won a Big 12 game and are coming off a 1-11 season. Gundy was let go after a 1-2 start last season and Oklahoma State replaced him with former North Texas head coach Eric Morris.
It's his first power conference head coaching job, though he was a player and assistant coach at Texas Tech. Morris is ambitious. He's talked about the opportunity to compete for Big 12 championships sooner rather than later. He brought in nearly 90 new players through the transfer portal. He runs an exciting offense and he’s part of the Mike Leach coaching tree.
Outside analysts are projecting the Cowboys as an average team in the Big 12 this year. But just how close is Oklahoma State to making it to a bowl game? That's worth considering as the Cowboys begin fall workouts.
How Close is Oklahoma State to a Bowl Game?

Bowl games were a way of life under Gundy. The former Cowboys quarterback took over as head coach in 2005 and in his first season Oklahoma State went just 4-7, with a 1-7 record in the Big 12. After that the Cowboys made a bowl game every season until they missed going bowling in 2024 when they went 3-9.
Last year's team might have been the least talented team of Gundy’s career as a head coach. Morris has already lifted the talent level from a year ago.
Among the transfers he imported were three players who helped him turn the Mean Green into a 12-2 team last year — quarterback Drew Mestemaker, running back Caleb Hawkins and wide receiver Wyatt Young. Those three players alone may be more talented than most of the players that were on Oklahoma State’s roster in 2025. The record backs that up.
But they're not enough to get Oklahoma State to a bowl game in 2026. Morris needs more of those transfers to come through. He needs help the few holdover players, such as cornerback LaDainian Fields and defensive end Jaleel Johnson, emerge as stars on defense. He needs his defensive coordinator, Skyler Cassidy, to whip the unit into shape.
At minimum, the Cowboys need a good defense. If the Cowboys offense is as productive as it could be, a good defense is all Oklahoma State will need to be competitive. There are pieces in place and there is talent on the roster, but it must come together — and not midway through the season.
The schedule makes a difference too. To reach a bowl game the Cowboys need six wins. Oklahoma State needs to go 2-1 in non-conference. Assuming OSU loses to Oregon, the Cowboys need wins over Tulsa and Murray State. With the talent on hand that feels doable.
Then, it’s four wins in Big 12 action. The Cowboys must play Texas Tech, the defending champion, and Houston, a team many see as a contender. But there are inviting games on the schedule.
Oklahoma State has four games against teams that had losing records last season — West Virginia, UCF, Colorado and Kansas. Like the Cowboys, all four should be better than a season ago. The Cowboys played UCF late last season and were competitive despite the direction of the season.
Win those four games and the Cowboys are bowling. That seems feasible. The other three games on the slate are all on the road — Iowa State, Kansas State and Arizona State. Those are late in the season and if OSU is as better than outsiders believe, those games are in play, too.
A middle of the road team won five Big 12 games last season. That’s the right number for OSU to hit. Given the new coaching staff, the talent they imported and the schedule, there's a strong possibility that the Cowboys could end their two-year bowl drought in 2026.
Yes, the Cowboys are closer to getting into a bowl game than one might think after losing 20 of their last 24 games.

Matthew Postins is the publisher of Oklahoma State on SI. He is an award-winning sports journalist who was formerly the editor of the College Football America Yearbook and covers the Big 12 Conference for Heartland College Sports.
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