Projecting Every Big 12 Starting Quarterback Ahead of the 2026 College Football Season

With no spring transfer portal window in 2026, college football rosters for the upcoming season are mostly finalized as of mid-May—barring any extreme cases. That means it’s time to take a look at the most important position on the field for the sport’s top programs: the quarterbacks.

Spring ball is now complete, and with the insight we’ve gained from a busy offseason and early practices, Sports Illustrated will project every Power 4 starting quarterback, as well as a handful of Group of 6 signal-callers over the next couple of weeks. We’ll also include a confidence meter, based on how certain we are that the named quarterback will be the one who trots out onto the field for his team in Week 1.

Last week, SI projected all 18 Big Ten and all 17 ACC signal-callers in 2026. Next up: The Big 12, which boasts perhaps the most confounding quarterback situation in all of college football at Texas Tech. Other schools feature some of the most experienced returners in the country, while a handful of programs will turn the keys over to transfers who had breakout seasons in ’25. Let’s take a closer look at the bunch.

Arizona: Noah Fifita

2025 stats: 64.3% completion rate, 3,228 yards, 29 touchdowns, six interceptions, 147.2 efficiency rating

Confidence Level: High

Quarterback continuity pays off more times than not in college football and Arizona may be one of the biggest beneficiaries of that over the past three seasons. Fifita is a three-year starter, who weathered losing head coach Jedd Fisch after his redshirt freshman campaign by overcoming a slightly down 2024 to post career highs in passing yards and touchdowns in ’25. The Wildcats also went from 4–8 in Brent Brennan’s first season to 9–4 in his second under Fifita’s leadership. That mark was nearly good enough to put Arizona into the conference championship game—a goal that remains with the active FBS leader in passing touchdowns at the helm for one last ride.

Arizona quarterback Noah Fifita looks to throw. — Arizona quarterback Noah Fifita is a three-year starter for the Wildcats. | Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

Arizona State: Cutter Boley

2025 stats (Kentucky): 65.8% completion rate, 2,160 yards, 15 touchdowns, 12 interceptions, 134.5 efficiency rating

Confidence Level: Medium

Kenny Dillingham has the difficult task of replacing the experienced Sam Leavitt, who should still be considered one of the premier players at the position even after a complicated 2025. He’s yet to name a starter after spring ball, but Boley, a Kentucky transfer, is the leader in the clubhouse. There was a lot to like from the freshman in his 10 starts in Lexington, from capable efficiency to a power arm. But turnovers plagued Boley in the SEC, and the top defenses in the Big 12 will still make life difficult for him if he can’t protect the football. Potential threats to Boley’s hold on the position include sixth-year Michigan transfer Mikey Keene and highly touted true freshman Jake Fette.

Baylor: DJ Lagway

2025 stats (Florida): 63.2% completion rate, 2,264 yards, 16 touchdowns, 14 interceptions, 127.0 efficiency rating

Confidence Level: High

Two years in the Swamp never quite panned out for Lagway, a five-star recruit with elite tools and upside. But 2025 was particularly grim, as he went 4–8 as a starter after giving reasons for optimism with a 6–1 record as a true freshman in ’24. Interceptions in bunches were the real lowlight, including five on the road against LSU and three on the road at Kentucky, both losses. Yet it’s still too early to give up on Lagway. The arm talent and ability is there, the decision-making just needs to be better. Plus, Florida’s offensive line had its issues and Baylor has completely overhauled its own in an effort to provide its new quarterback with better protection.

BYU: Bear Bachmeier

2025 Stats: 64.9% completion rate, 3,033 yards, 15 touchdowns, seven interceptions, 139.9 efficiency rating

Confidence Level: High

Bachmeier impressed as a true freshman, adding 527 yards and 11 touchdowns on the ground to his already above-average passing numbers. His only downside? His inability to beat Texas Tech. In two games against the Red Raiders, the Cougars scored just 14 combined points. Bachmeier completed just 60% of his passes for 303 yards, one touchdown and three interceptions. The real issue was his inability to use his legs: rushing 20 times for just 10 yards while taking only three sacks. Still, Kalani Sitake has to feel good about having a player so young who was excellent outside of his two games against one of the best defenses in the country.

Cincinnati: JC French IV

2025 Stats (Georgia Southern): 63.8% completion rate, 2,929 yards, 20 touchdowns, eight interceptions, 139.9 efficiency rate

Confidence Level: High

In the sweepstakes to replace Brendan Sorsby, French has the clear upper hand. The Bearcats have very little experience at the position elsewhere, but French started every game for Georgia Southern over the past two seasons, going 15–11 in 26 starts. He took serious strides in his second year, too, cutting down on interceptions (11 to eight) and fumbles (nine to four), while becoming a more regular running threat (315 yards and six touchdowns in 2025). He did take 29 sacks last season, including seven against Sun Belt champs James Madison, meaning there’s still some work to be done as he moves up to the power-conference level.

Colorado: Julian Lewis

2025 Stats: 55.3% completion rate, 589 yards, four touchdowns, zero interceptions, 122.0 efficiency rating

Confidence Level: High

The first major quarterback recruit for Deion Sanders at Colorado is likely to get handed the keys in 2026 after narrowly losing out on the starting job to Liberty transfer Kaidon Salter last season. Lewis still played in four games—few enough to redshirt—and lost his two starts, but the Buffs had plenty of issues outside of their efforts to replace Shedeur Sanders. The talent is there for Lewis, a former five-star recruit. The issue for Deion continues to be protecting that talent. Colorado allowed 38 sacks in 2025, the most in the Big 12 by a wide margin, and Lewis was sacked 11 times in his two starts.

Colorado quarterback Julian Lewis prepares to pass the ball during the spring game. — Colorado quarterback Julian Lewis is the first major recruit for Deion Sanders. | Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images

Houston: Conner Weigman

2025 Stats: 65.2% completion rate, 2,705 yards, 25 touchdowns, nine interceptions, 147.1 efficiency rating

Confidence Level: Medium

After three years of playing sparingly, but mostly effectively, at Texas A&M, Weigman found the right match in Willie Fritz at Houston. He powered the Cougars to 10–3 behind a career year that saw him unlock all aspects of his game as both a passer and a runner. The only slight reason for doubt about his hold on the starting job is the arrival of the No. 1 recruit in the 2026 class, Keisean Henderson. Weigman has done more than enough to keep the gig to start the season, but any cracks or possible injuries could cause Fritz to turn to the best recruit in program history.

Iowa State: Jaylen Raynor

2025 Stats (Arkansas State): 66.5% completion rate, 3,361 yards, 19 interceptions, 11 interceptions, 130.9 efficiency rating

Confidence Level: High

The Cyclones’ roster was pillaged after Matt Campbell’s departure for Penn State, leaving Jimmy Rogers with an uphill battle. He did well to bring in Raynor, who started 36 games for Arkansas State and posted a winning record (20–16) while doing so. The former Red Wolves quarterback posted over 9,800 combined yards in his three years as a starter, but as his usage crept up each year, so did his turnover-worthy plays. With so many new faces around Raynor, it may be difficult for the Cyclones to find their footing.

Kansas: Cole Ballard

2025 Stats: 10 for 22, 108 yards, one touchdown, one interception

Confidence Level: Low

The Jayhawks have a full-out competition to replace Jalon Daniels, who started games across six seasons in Lawrence. Ballard may have the inside track as of the spring, but Lance Leipold remains noncommittal because of the plethora of options. Redshirt sophomore Isaiah Marshall would provide more of a dual-threat option, having shown some flashes in his brief time on the field in 2025. And Kansas brought in Rice transfer Chase Jenkins, who wasn’t 100% healthy throughout the spring but has the most experience among the three players in the competition.

Kansas State: Avery Johnson

2025 Stats: 59.8% completion rate, 2,385 yards, 18 touchdowns, six interceptions, 132.5 efficiency rating

Confidence Level: High

For a player as accomplished as Johnson, 2025 was somewhat of a letdown. There wasn’t much tangible improvement from his breakout sophomore season, in part because Kansas State didn’t emphasize his running ability, perhaps his biggest strength. Still, Johnson enters his senior season tied for the program record in career passing touchdowns (48) and with an ability to carve out quite the legacy with the Wildcats. Plus, he’ll have a former dual-threat stud in Collin Klein dialing up plays as his new head coach, which should make for one of the conference’s most entertaining duos.

Oklahoma State: Drew Mestemaker

2025 Stats (North Texas): 68.9% completion rate, 4,379 yards, 34 touchdowns, nine interceptions, 168.7 efficiency rating

Confidence Level: High

Mestemaker is one of the top returners in the nation, having ranked in the top five in passing yards (first), passing touchdowns (tied for second) and passing efficiency (fourth) in 2025. He’ll travel with Eric Morris to Oklahoma State and try to revive a program that’s floundered for the past two years. The jump in competition and a lack of significant support around him could prove challenging for Mestemaker, but it’s hard to bet against one of the most promising quarterback-coach tandems in the country.

Oklahoma State quarterback Drew Mestemaker hands off to Caleb Hawkins for a touchdown during the spring game. | BRYAN TERRY/THE OKLAHOMAN / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

TCU: Jaden Craig

2025 Stats (Harvard): 61.5%, 2,869 yards, 25 touchdowns, seven interceptions, 153.1 efficiency rating

Confidence Level: High

In one of the more intriguing transfer unions of the offseason, Craig left Harvard for a grad transfer year at TCU. The New Jersey native is exceptionally clean with the football, boasting an impressive 52 touchdowns to 15 interceptions across 23 starts. He also wins, having gone 19–4 in three seasons. Sonny Dykes has gotten the most out of his quarterbacks with the Horned Frogs with both Max Duggan and Josh Hoover putting up impressive careers in Fort Worth. That said, both of those players had time to develop and play consistently at the Big 12 level, whereas Craig will have to instantly rise to a new level.

Texas Tech: Will Hammond

2025 Stats: 63.3% completion rate, 680 yards, seven touchdowns, three interceptions, 131.4 efficiency rating

Confidence Level: Low

Well, folks, we’ve reached the most complicated situation in the country. And it’s taking place at a program that earned a top-four seed in the playoff last season. Sorsby has been ruled ineligible, a decision he’s already challenging in court. But given the scope of Sorsby’s gambling over a number of years, it’s hard to see the NCAA relenting on its policy, even as the quarterback seeks treatment for a gambling addiction. That leaves Hammond, fresh off of torn ACL in his right knee as the presumptive starter, even though Joey McGuire has said he won’t be cleared for football activities until Aug. 21. If Hammond can’t go, Tech will likely turn to Tulsa transfer Kirk Francis to start temporarily—an outcome that would have been incomprehensible when Sorsby first transferred to Texas Tech from Cincinnati in January.

UCF: Alonza Barnett III

2025 Stats (James Madison): 58.4% completion rate, 2,806 yards, 23 touchdowns, eight interceptions, 138.3 efficiency rating

Confidence Level: High

Barnett earned a role in the Power 4 after his massive season with James Madison ended with a trip to the College Football Playoff. He’ll give Scott Frost far more explosiveness behind center, especially because he’s one of the most dynamic runners at the position in the conference. With the Dukes, he ran for more than 1,000 yards and 22 touchdowns across the past two seasons. If there’s an area for him to improve, it’s efficiency, seeing as he completed fewer than 60% of his passes without a significant uptick in attempts from 2024 to ’25.

Utah: Devon Dampier

2025 Stats: 63.5% completion rate, 2,490 yards, 24 touchdowns, five interceptions, 146.8 efficiency rate

Confidence Level: High

Few quarterbacks took the leap that Dampier did last season. He posted a 146.8 efficiency rating, up from 121.6 in 2024 at New Mexico, cutting down significantly on interceptions in the process. Plus, Dampier is an excellent runner, but his production on the ground in ’25 was more additive to his game than it was a necessity the season prior. Dampier’s two worst performances last year did come in Utah’s most important games, losses to Texas Tech and BYU. Perhaps a new regime and new offensive coordinator Kevin McGiven will help elevate one of the conference’s best talents at the position into something even more in 2026.

West Virginia: Michael Hawkins Jr.

2025 Stats (Oklahoma): 15 of 27, 167 yards, three touchdowns, zero interceptions

Confidence Level: Medium

Hawkins stuck with the Sooners even after Brent Venables added John Mateer last year and ended up starting just a single game in 2025. That led him to enter the transfer portal and now he’ll get a real shot to be the guy in Morgantown. Hawkins’s tools are interesting; he’s capable as a runner and showed moments as a passer during his true freshman season. He’ll still need to fully beat out Scotty Fox Jr. for the job after Fox started the final five games for the Mountaineers in 2025.

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