Numbers Show Oklahoma State is Headed for 2026 Bounce Back

The Cowboys have a chance to get back to their winning ways in 2026.

Sep 9, 2023; Tempe, Arizona, USA; Detailed view of an Oklahoma State Cowboys helmet at Mountain America Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images | Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

Oklahoma State will be looking to get back on track next season, and the numbers might be on its side.

Football season is still roughly five months away, but it’s never too early to look ahead at what might happen when the 2026 season kicks off. In the new landscape of college football where everything changes so rapidly, the Cowboys are one of many teams that could be in for a drastic year-over-year difference in 2026.

While many teams will see a dropoff like OSU had from 2023 to 2024, the Pokes will be looking to reverse the failures that got them into their current situation. Coming off a 1-11 season, the Cowboys are basically unrecognizable from a year ago and are hoping that type of change translates to the field and the scoreboard.

While OSU made plenty of changes in the offseason ahead of its 2025 disaster of a season, the Pokes have made some much more quality additions to the coaching staff and roster this time around. With Eric Morris and Drew Mestemaker headlining the immense changes to the program, the Cowboys could be ready for a huge increase in wins next season.

In a recent article from ESPN’s Bill Connelly, he released the first SP+ rankings for the 2026 season. His metrics help rank teams across the college football landscape, and his initial rankings place the Cowboys at No. 38 out of 138 FBS teams.

That mark is good for eighth in the Big 12, with several teams bunched up in the 20s and 30s while Texas Tech leads the conference at No. 7. While OSU would love to be better than just the eighth-best team in the conference, being a top 40 team in the country coming into the season would be a massive improvement for the Cowboys.

As Connelly noted in his article, OSU would be adding a projected 21.7 adjusted points per game, easily the largest improvement in the country.

“The Cowboys fielded their worst team in more than 60 years last fall but replaced Mike Gundy with Morris, who basically migrated last season's top-ranked offense to Stillwater,” Connelly wrote. “That doesn't make them Big 12 favorites or anything, but it could very well make them a top-40 team.”

To put it in perspective, OSU finished 2025 as the 121st-ranked team in the SP+ rankings and was the only Big 12 team that didn’t crack the top 100 in the FBS. OSU still has a lot of room to grow, but signs certainly point toward a much better season in Stillwater.