Breaking Down Oklahoma State's Path to the Big 12 Championship Game
Chaos or not, Oklahoma State needs some help to make the Big 12 Championship.
While the Cowboys head into the final week of the regular season in a tie for second place, they do not control their Big 12 Championship destiny. Help is needed for the Cowboys to be a win away from their second Big 12 title.
The easiest path for OSU to make the championship game would be for Texas to win against Texas Tech and for OSU to beat BYU. ESPN gives that scenario a 70.5% chance of happening.
At worst, OSU would then be in a tiebreaker with one or both Kansas State and Oklahoma, where it would win based on head-to-head.
Because Texas plays on Friday, OSU will know its situation before kickoff against BYU. A Texas win simply means win and in for OSU, but a loss by Texas puts OSU’s chances up in the air.
A Texas loss, plus wins by Kansas State, Oklahoma and OSU, would make a four-way tie for first place at 7-2. ESPN gives that scenario roughly an 8% chance of occurring.
OSU would miss the title game in this scenario. Kansas State and Texas would meet in Arlington if that happened.
But OSU can still get in with a Texas loss and a win. It would just need OU to lose as well to create a three-way tie with OSU, Texas and KSU, or a two-way tie between OSU and Texas if KSU were also to lose.
KSU is 0-2 against the other two teams and would not make it if there is a three-way tie. ESPN gives Texas and OU losing, plus an OSU win, a 1.7% chance of happening.
Even with a Cowboys loss, it is not impossible for them to make it to Arlington. But if they lose, the following would also have to happen:
- Iowa State beats Kansas State
- TCU beats OU
- Baylor beats West Virginia
- Texas beats Texas Tech
Those results would mark a four-way tie at 6-3 for second place among OSU, OU, ISU and KSU. The tiebreaker would come down to the next highest-placed common opponent, Kansas.
OSU and KSU beat Kansas, while ISU and OU did not. Then, OSU would win head-to-head against KSU to advance.
There is only a 0.1% chance of all that occurring, and assuming an OSU loss, it still gives OSU only 0.6% of making it in. The bottom line is OSU needs to win to get in.
While everything is quite confusing going into the final week of the regular season, ESPN gives OSU roughly a 72.3% chance of getting into the Big 12 Championship.
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