Best Bets from SI's NFL Draft Prop Betting Guide

Thursday's NFL Draft will likely be the most gambled on draft in NFL history.

Logically, that makes sense. The draft becomes a bigger deal to the average sports fan seemingly every year, and Las Vegas experts report bigger gambling numbers following each draft. This year, there's not any other live sports for one to gamble on or watch on Thursday night. So if you're one that enjoys a little wager (or a big one), it's safe to say you're going to lay some cash down on this year's draft.

Sports Illustrated's gambling team did a great job identifying some of the more interesting prop bets in a 2,900 word column you can find here. However, even for those like myself that write for a living, 2,900 words is a lot of words.

If instead, you'd rather just take a peak, here are a handful of the most fun bets from that column, followed by three of my personal best bets from the slate:

Who will be the No. 3 overall pick?

Odds are pretty safe that Joe Burrow and Chase Young will be the first and second picks, respectively, on Thursday night. But who will be number three?

Who will be the third quarterback taken?

Assuming Joe Burrow is the first quarterback, who goes second and third will be interesting and could determine a lot of Thursday night. If Tua Tagovailoa were without health concerns, he'd be a lock No. 2 and maybe in play to supersede Burrow. But that's just not the case. Rumors are, some teams would prefer the safe pick of Justin Herbert over Tagovailoa for QB2. Are those rumors true?

How many quarterbacks will go in the first round?

Joe Burrow, Tua Tagovailoa, and Justin Herbert are locks. Jordan Love seems to be a near lock for the first round. But will someone like Jacob Eason or Jalen Hurts or Jake Fromm sneak in?

How many receivers will go in the first round?

This one is just fun. 2020 features the deepest pool of receivers we've seen in years. Will the talent at the position lead teams to snag their guy early or wait until later rounds?

How high are teams willing to go for Jordan Love?

Love is likely to go in the first round, but how high will teams be willing to reach for one of the more boom or bust players in the draft?

Does it really just mean more?

**Silently chanting to himself: "S-E-C. S-E-C. S-E-C."**

The Southeastern Conference has lead all other conferences in draft selections for the past five years.

After Isaiah Simmons, who will reach for linebackers No. 2 and 3?

Clemson linebacker Isaiah Simmons will go top 10. Nearly every evaluator has Patrick Queen of LSU and Kenneth Murray of Oklahoma No. 2 and 3 at the position in some order, but how high will they go?

Three best bets for the evening:

Third quarterback taken: Justin Herbert (-160). Obviously, drafting Tagovailoa as the second quarterback comes with risk. But drafting a prospect who you think is an inferior talent to Tagovailoa seems to be a bigger risk. Tagovailoa goes as QB2, Herbert as QB3.
Under 4.5 quarterbacks selected in the first round. There's a big advantage to having the fifth year option associated with first round picks, particularly on a quarterback. That's why teams trade into the back of the first round for QBs often. However, only once this decade have five or more quarterbacks gone in the opening round, and only twice has that number even been four.
Over 21.5 and 23.5 for Kenneth Murray and Patrick Queen. NFL teams have a weird thing where they don't value off-ball linebackers very highly. Isaiah Simmons is going buck that trend this year when he goes top-10, but Simmons can literally play every linebacker spot, plus nickel corner, plus safety... soooooo I mean he's breaking all the rules anyways. These two might both be first rounders, but those numbers seem lofty.

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