What to Bet in Ole Miss vs. Georgia Tech on Saturday
The Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (1-1) head to Oxford on Saturday for their first real road test of the season against the Ole Miss Rebels (2-0). The boys in Oxford are off to a quick 2-0 start to the season, winning 73-7 vs. the Mercer Bears and 37-20 vs. Tulane last week.
The last time these two teams faced off, the Rebels headed into Boddy Dodd Stadium and shut out the Yellow Jackets 42-0 effortlessly in 2022.
According to the Sports Illustrated Sportsbook, The Rebels are favored by 17.5 points, and the over/under is set at 63.5. Lane Kiffin and his offense have scored an average of 55 points per game to start the season. Ole Miss was a 35-point favorite vs. Mercer and a seven-point favorite vs. Tulane. In both contests, Ole Miss covered the spread with ease.
The Rebels have an implied money line win percentage of 90.9%, based on the analytics projection that picks winners by simulating games 20,000 times. As there is no value in taking the money line (-1000), the spread looks achievable. In two matchups to start the season, the Yellow Jackets are 1-1 against the spread. In Week 1, they headed to Louisville, falling 39-34, but covered the spread which was set at +7. The following week they came out victorious against South Carolina State winning 48-13, but were unable to cover the 44 points they were favored by,
Georgia Tech ranks 14th in the nation in yards per play with 6.9, while Ole Miss sits 63rd in that category. With two offenses that undeniably push the pace, both teams are a combined 3-1 covering the over. The Rebels’ over/under average is 63, just 0.5 points above this week's line.
In Monday's press conference, senior linebacker Jeremiah Jean-Baptiste broke down what he and his defense have seen in film this week from the Yellow Jackets offense.
“He is a solid quarterback (Haynes King). He can't run, but you know we are going to do things in order to bottle him up and make decisions,” Jean-Baptiste said. “They are obviously a respected team, and we are going to go into this week treating them with respect and like any other opponent.”
Pete Golding and his defense are building off a strong second half against Tulane, just allowing three points and tallying a defensive touchdown on a scoop-and-score to close the game. With the ability to make second half adjustments, which was evident in the Tulane game, we could see the defensive line making Haynes King scramble. King is no slouch, though. He is leading the ACC with 603 passing yards, recording seven touchdowns and an interception.
The Texas A&M transfer is a steady pocket presence. But, King is without his second-leading receiver Chase Lane, who averages 17 yards per catch. With the strength of the Ole Miss secondary, if the D-line pressures King to make split-second decisions, the Rebels could cause serious issues for King with his lack of mobility. As that would raise concerns to over bettors, the Ole Miss offense is explosive and has had no dilemma putting up points in the past few seasons.
Ole Miss quarterback Jaxson Dart has thrown for 601 yards, six touchdowns and one interception this season. Ole Miss is the No. 7 team in the country in passing success rate and the No. 4 passing offense.
But at the end of the day, the Ole Miss offense is notorious for dissecting defenses that do not match up athletically. It is looking like this will be the case today. The Georgia Tech defense has struggled with the pass rush. The defense does not have one sack thus far and has only recorded four tackles for loss.
With the Rebels offensive line showing some life against a strong Tulane defensive line, if you give Dart and his running backs time and space, they will take advantage. Georgia Tech's secondary has yet to prove themselves this season, and with room for Dart to make plays, this will cause serious issues for the Yellow Jacket defense.
With a road affair against Nick Saban's Alabama right around the corner, the red white and blue will look to build momentum this week, as the schedule unequivocally becomes strenuous.
Ole Miss -17.5 and the O63.5 are looking like the lean for today, and if the offense and defense continue to roll into this week after a strong second half where adjustments were made, the Rebels should have no question closing this one out with ease in Vaught Hemingway Stadium.
The game is set for 6:30 p.m. CT on SEC Network.
